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This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s get started.

Reporting Period: October 6-9, 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Developing: Israel-Gaza Peace Deal

Summary
On October 8, 2025, President Trump stated that he may soon travel to Egypt, where ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas have been ongoing. During his Q/A with reporters, Secretary of State Marco Rubio entered the room and privately spoke to Trump. Trump stated that “We’re very close to a deal in the Middle East.”

Data cutoff: October 8, 2025, at 9:00 PM EST

Syria Holds First Elections Since Fall Of Assad Regime

Summary
On October 6, 2025, Syria held its first parliamentary elections since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The vote, organized under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, marks a significant political milestone in Syria’s post-war reconstruction but remains clouded by allegations of manipulation and limited voter participation. The new system uses an Electoral College model, where most representatives are selected by appointed officials rather than through direct public vote.

Findings

• Elections: On October 6, 2025, Syria conducted its first parliamentary elections since the fall of the Assad regime (SOURCE). The election in Syria has led to mixed reactions, with proponents calling it a step towards democratization and opponents calling them rigged (DW).

  • How it Works: The interim Syrian President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, established a Supreme Elections Committee which oversees the constituent-based “Electoral College” (DW, Arab Reform Initiative). In the Electoral Colleges, DW claims that 70% of officials were appointed based on qualifications, while the remaining 30% are “local, notable community figures” (DW, Arab Reform Initiative).
    Those Electoral College officials will select 140 of 210 People’s Assembly seats (i.e., members of parliament), or nearly two-thirds of seats. President al-Sharaa will directly appoint the remaining 70 seats.

  • National Representation: Syria has 14 regional governments (Syrian Arab News Agency). Three of those—Al-Hasakh, Raqqa, and Suwayda—had elections postponed due to ongoing violence and ethnic disputes (Enab Baladi, The Jerusalem Post). Elections will resume once “conditions allow” (DW). Thirteen seats will remain vacant until those elections can be held.

• Background: In 2012, Ahmed al-Sharaa formed the al-Nusra Front, with the support of al-Qaeda, in Syria. In 2017, he merged al-Nusra with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). In November 2024, HTS launched an 11-day offensive in Syria, which led to the seizure of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Damascus. President Assad fled Syria to Moscow.
  Al-Sharaa acted as Syria’s de facto leader until January 29, 2025, when he was appointed as President.

Why This Matters
Most Syrians are not directly participating in these elections, meaning the support for the democratic process and the al-Sharaa regime is vastly different depending on who you ask. This is also true when you take into account regional representation and ethnic or religious affiliation.

In addition to ongoing conflict and ethnic tension, the interim government stated that elections must be done in this controlled manner due to the inability to update Syria’s voter registration database, which includes a millions-strong diaspora.

President al-Sharaa spoke at the recent UN General Assembly and met bilaterally with many leaders (including Western ones), and these elections are a further legitimization of the new Syria. However, al-Sharaa’s past association with terrorism and his rejection of the U.S.-created Abraham Accords, for example, suggest Syria’s reconstruction may not be smooth.

Trump Halts Diplomatic Outreach With Venezuela Amid Military Intervention Rumors

Summary
The United States suspended diplomatic outreach with Venezuela on October 6, amid rumors of U.S. military escalation. President Trump ordered Special Envoy Richard Grenell to halt negotiations with the Maduro regime. Meanwhile, reports of a “false flag” plot against the closed U.S. Embassy in Caracas were shared with Washington. The move comes as U.S. forces continue strikes on cartel-linked targets in the Caribbean and Maduro mobilizes militias and military assets.

Findings

• Background: On August 19, 2025, the United States began deploying naval and air assets to the Caribbean to set the stage for anti-catel operations in the region (The Intel Brief). As assets continued to deploy to the region, the U.S. military began conducting strikes on cartel vessels transiting the Caribbean. U.S. military personnel also conducted exercises and maneuvers from sites in Puerto Rico (The Intel Brief).
  In Venezuela, President Maduro mobilized a millions-strong militia force, deployed assets throughout the country (including to the Colombian border), and entertained Russian and Chinese intervention and support (The Intel Brief).

• Cancelled Negotiations: On October 6, 2025, The New York Times reported that President Trump has ordered special envoy Richard Grenell to cease his diplomatic outreach and negotiations with the Maduro regime in Venezuela (The New York Times). The New York Times and Reuters report that an unnamed U.S. official broke the news to the media (The New York Times, Reuters).

• U.S. Escalation in Venezuela: On October 2, 2025, Trump notified Congress that the United States is engaged in a “non-international armed conflict” with cartels, and that strikes could be conducted inside Venezuela (CSIS, Reuters). The U.S. military has, so far, conducted four strikes on cartel vessels transiting the Caribbean to the U.S. from the Venezuelan coastline (CSIS). The New York Times claims that strikes on cartels could be used as a casus belli, with regime change in Venezuela being Washington’s strategic goal (The New York Times, CSIS). Reportedly, Trump ordered the National Security Council to reassess and activate contingency plans for conducting military operations in the region, a decision that reflects Trump’s rhetoric as early as September:

• False Flag Rumors: On October 7, 2025, Venezuelan National Assembly leader Jorge Rodriguez confirmed that the United States was notified “through three different channels” of a planned attack on the U.S. Embassy in Caracas (Ground News). Rodriguez called the plot a “false flag” operation due to the perpetrators pretending to support President Maduro’s regime, suggesting the attack could have been used as an invasion pretext (Ground News).
  The U.S. Embassy in Caracas has been closed since 2019, when Washington cut diplomatic ties with the Maduro regime.

Why This Matters
With American forces already deployed to the Caribbean and conducting lethal strikes on cartel targets, the diplomatic pause is a sign of growing hostility. This is true when we consider Trump’s remarks, that the “non-international armed conflict” is an attempt to broaden U.S. operational authority.

It will be interesting to see how this tests the lateral limits of the Trump administration, as war would (or should) require the approval of Congress, while from a global soft power standpoint, the policy may tarnish our relations with regional powers like Brazil or Colombia.

• For example, the U.S. Senate held a vote on October 8 to limit Trump’s authorization of strikes on cartel vessels, something Trump said he would veto even if it were passed (AP News). But this indicates growing dissent for some of Trump’s policies.

• For example, Colombia recently claimed that the fourth U.S. strike on a cartel boat may have been Colombian in origin and not Venezuelan.

EU Addresses Russian Hybrid Warfare, Germany Pursues Major Police Reform

Summary
On October 8, 2025, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that Russia’s gray zone operations against Europe amount to “hybrid warfare,” citing sabotage, drone incursions, and cable attacks. The same day, Germany advanced major police reforms authorizing drone engagement and expanding surveillance powers to counter emerging security threats.

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Findings

• Background: Through 2024 and 2025, European nations identified a growing risk of Russian hybrid warfare activity, particularly targeting NATO member states. Notable activities included the cutting of undersea telecommunications cables, large and small drone incursions, logistics and infrastructure sabotage, and fighter aircraft incursions (Euronews, POLITICO).

• EU Addresses the Issue: On October 8, 2025, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen addressed the European Parliament (POLITICO). In her speech, she stated that these actions are not anomalies or accidents, but part of Russia’s “deliberate and targeted gray zone campaign against Europe” (Euronews).
  Von der Leyen went on to state that Europe must do more beyond investing in “traditional defense,” and that protecting the EU’s eastern border is insufficient alone (POLITICO).

• Germany Authorizes UAS Engagements: On October 8, 2025, Germany reportedly authorized the Bundespolizei (police) to engage drones that pose a risk to life, property, or functions of civil society. (Reuters). The reform is awaiting approval in the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament (Euronews).
  Last week, more than 10,000 passengers were delayed in Munich due to a small drone incursion at the airport (Reuters).

• Surveillance Expansion: While Chancellor Merz confirmed the Bundestag’s efforts to expand counter-UAS actions for the federal police, Merz also suggested that the Federal Police Act will be updated (Euronews). Merz stated on X that federal police will have enhanced authorities to conduct checks in “knife ban zones,” and that police will conduct more “preventative telecommunications surveillance” (Euronews).

Why This Matters
EU officials would have us believe that their acknowledgment of Russian hybrid warfare marks a strategic shift in how Europe will respond to hybrid threats. Until we see comprehensive European responses to these threats, as opposed to mere reporting and speech-making, it is likely that Russia will expand its hybrid activities and continue harassing key European military and civil infrastructure.

Germany’s efforts to counter UAS systems, Poland’s initial engagement of Russian drones, and the U.S.-led Eastern Sentry activity are all steps in the right direction, but the European Union’s response seems rhetorical and lackluster. Keep an eye on the bilateral responses!

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!
— Nick