Good morning,

Hope you’ve been having a good week. This is the Thursday edition of The Intel Brief.

Let’s get into it.

Reporting Period: October 13-16, 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Trump Travels To Egypt To Sign Gaza Peace Plan

Summary
On October 13, 2025, President Trump signed “The Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity” in Egypt. The plan, signed by Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, is a declaration for peace and reconThe plan, also signed by Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, is a formal intent and guide for restoring peace in Gaza. Last week, Israel and Hamas agreed to ceasefire terms under Trump’s 20-Point Peace Plan, now the basis of the declaration. It includes plans for prisoner exchanges, reconstruction, and the governance of Gaza.

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Findings

• Background: On October 9, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Cabinet formally adopted President Trump’s 20-Point Peace Plan following successful negotiations between the U.S., Israel, and Hamas in Egypt (BBC). The plan notably includes details on hostage exchanges (which are ongoing), humanitarian aid deliveries, the governance of Gaza, and economic investment and reconstruction (BBC).
  Israeli forces, which have begun their ordered withdrawal from Gaza, and Hamas have so far honored the ceasefire, despite some militant groups in Gaza continuing ethnic, religious, and factional violence, including extrajudicial killings.

• Egypt Summit: On October 13, President Trump was joined by more than 20 world leaders gathered in El-Sheikh, Egypt, for the Egypt Summit (ABC News). At the Egypt Summit, President Trump signed the “Trump Declaration” alongside three leaders (The White House):

  • Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi

  • Qatari Emir Tamin bin Hamad al Thani

  • Turkish President Recep Erdoğan

  In attendance was Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who could likely be the leader of a new Palestinian government despite Israel’s interests (DW, BBC).
  Netanyahu was notably absent from the Egypt Summit, as were Hamas officials (ABC News).

  • Israeli Parliament: On October 13, Trump also visited Israel’s parliament (the Knesset), where he spoke (PBS). Trump also urged the Israeli President to pardon Prime Minister Netanyahu from his corruption charges, which are postponed due to the conflict (PBS).

• Long-term Peace: President Trump stated the ceasefire and declaration were “3,000 years” in the making and that “it’s [gonna] hold up” (BBC). Despite the efforts by the U.S., there is skepticism that Israel will continue military operations in support of the seizure of the West Bank, indicating a potential continuation of violence (DW).
  This speculation is further supported by Netanyahu’s absence from the summit (ABC News).

Why This Matters
There is no question that Trump’s efforts are historic and consequential. There is a real chance at peace in the region, and the creation of a Palestinian state that Israel is, at least for now, content in coexisting with. If it isn’t convincing enough, House Democrats, world leaders, and President Biden have even praised Trump’s efforts and progress thus far.

However, the upholding of the ceasefire is imperative in these efforts moving forward. On October 15, Israel stated that the body of one released hostage did not match previous health records, suggesting the hostage exchange was incomplete or falsified. The continuation of extrajudicial killings and factional violence in Gaza also makes the ceasefire more fragile, with the U.S. CENTCOM commander urging Hamas and other militant groups to adhere to Trump’s 20-Point Peace Plan.

Trump even stated that if the ceasefire falls through, or the conditions are not met, that he will allow Israel to continue its military campaign, suggesting his influence led to Israeli compliance and restraint.

Trump To Host Zelenskyy At White House

Summary
On October 17, 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will meet with President Trump at the White House. President Trump is expected to discuss, if not announce, the U.S. providing long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior official Dmitry Medvedev caution against the move, stating it would escalate the war and significantly deteriorate U.S.-Russia relations.

Findings

• White House Meeting: On October 13, media outlets began reporting that Zelenskyy would meet with Trump at the White House, likely to discuss aid for Ukraine and efforts to end the war (NBC News). Recent reporting suggested that the United States has helped Ukraine conduct long-range strikes in Russian energy facilities, so Trump may discuss this as well.

  When speaking with reporters on his return from the Middle East, Trump did not confirm if the meeting will take place, whereas the Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. confirmed Trump’s invitation to Zelenskyy, and Zelenskyy’s intent to meet with Trump (NBC News).

• Tomahawk Missiles for Ukraine: Media outlets and think tanks are reporting that Trump may announce his intent to supply Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, a weapons system that would greatly enhance Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russia (NBC News, FDD). The New York Times reports that the Trump administration has drafted plans for the sale and/or transfer (The New York Times). Some additional details suggest why this could be likely:

  • Ukrainian Patriot: A former Deputy of Ukraine’s Chief of Staff reported to Espresso that Ukraine’s Western-supplied Patriot systems are only intercepting 6% of Russian drones and missiles (Voennoedelo). Western media cites Patriot overuse while Russia’s state media has claimed rapid production enhancements to Russia’s missile and drone platforms (Voennoedelo, RT). While Patriot is an air defense platform, an improved strike capability would allow Ukraine to reduce the number of Russian launchers, destroy production facilities, or neutralize command centers and launch locations.

  • U.S. Divestment: In June 2025, the United States Marine Corps announced that it has cancelled its investment in its Long Range Fires (LRF) systems, which is built around Tomahawk missile launchers (Naval News). The USMC planned to procure 56 LRF launchers with four having been delivered to the 11th Marine Regiment, 1st Marine Division (Naval News). Given the Marine Corps’ sudden divestment from the project, those launchers and future orders could be transitioned to Ukraine.

  • Secretary Hegseth’s Remarks: On October 15, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth urged Russia to begin measures to end the war in Ukraine (X). Hegseth also stated that if the war continues, the United States will take actions to ensure Ukraine can fight and win. Hegseth stated those actions would “impose costs on Russia” through means “only the United States can do,” suggesting sanctions, the supply of advanced weapons, or a greater combination of both (X).

Why This Matters
This development is interesting, because it is both a soft power flex and an increasingly likely change to Washington’s support for Ukraine. It also grows more and more likely given Russia’s hybrid warfare in Europe, threats to NATO, and NATO’s willingness to buy the weapons for donation.

Evidence pointing against U.S. sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine is that the U.S. retains a small arsenal of the missiles, the firing systems are complex and designed for systems Ukraine does not possess, and that U.S. personnel would need to have a hand in training, programming, and executing fire missions (i.e. direct involvement).

However, it would no doubt be a major escalation, and one that would entirely undo any formal (or backroom) diplomacy that has been ongoing between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv. This is even more true when we consider the recent reporting that the U.S. has been providing Ukraine with intelligence for striking Russian energy facilities.

A third consideration is that a few Tomahawk missiles will be sent to Ukraine and, due to the symbolic nature of the aid, will inspire European partners to donate similar long-range strikes platforms.

Putin Meets Interim Syrian President In Moscow

Summary
On October 15, 2025, President Putin hosted Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Moscow. Al-Sharaa is the first Syrian president to visit Russia since Bashar al-Assad’s regime collapsed. Al-Sharaa is there to “redefine” Russia-Syria relations.

Findings

• Meeting in Moscow: On October 15, Putin hosted al-Sharaa at the Kremlin in Moscow (AP News, BBC). Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia’s retention and use of military bases in Syria is a top agenda item (AP News). AP News also reports that Russia has resumed oil shipments to Syria.

  Al-Sharaa, the former HST commander, fought against the Assad regime during the Syrian Civil War. Now, al-Sharaa wants to “restore and redefine” ties with Putin and Russia (Al-Jazeera).

  • Assad’s Asylum: Currently, deposed President Bashar al-Assad is living in Moscow under asylum (AP News). He fled Syria to Moscow once HST forces captured key Syrian cities, including the capitol.

Why This Matters
Al-Sharaa’s warm welcome to Moscow is somewhat unexpected, especially given Moscow’s years-long support for Syria and the Assad regime. However, Putin’s pragmatic approach shows two things:

• Moscow’s desperation to retain military bases and energy transits through Syria and the region.

• Putin’s intent to cater to al-Sharaa and, perhaps, sway him to join the growing “multipolar bloc,” or BRICS.

Perhaps the most interesting part of this development is that Assad currently resides on Moscow, formally under asylum but realistically by Putin’s patience. It could be possible that al-Sharaa will seek Assad’s extradition in exchange for Russia accessing its bases in Syria.

Al-Sharaa, if he plays the field well, could also use Russia’s offer to entice greater support from the United States and the West—economically, security wise, or regarding political legitimacy.

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!
— Nick