Good morning,

Welcome to another Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s begin.

Reporting Period: November 3-6, 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Reminder: Trump Admin Likely To Publish National Security Strategy

The Trump administration is likely to release the 2026 National Security Strategy (NSS) in the coming weeks (POLITICO). The NSS is the document from which military, defense, economic, and industrial strategies are derived (NSS Archive).

The Goldwater-Nichols Defense Department Reorganization Act of 1986 requires the President to submit a national security report to Congress each year. The last NSS produced was by President Biden in 2022, with Trump’s last NSS being published in 2017 (NSS Archive). Both Democrat and Republican presidents have frequently failed to publish the NSS in the past, highlighting its publication as an indication of policy shifts (NSS Archive).

NATO Secretary General Visits Romania, Highlighting Its Strategic Role Amid Troops Withdrawals, Investments

Summary
From November 5 to 6, NATO Secretary General Rutte visited Romania. Rutte met with top Romanian officials during the NATO-Industry Forum, highlighting the nation’s growing role on NATO’s eastern flank.

Findings

• Secretary General Visit: From November 5-6, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte visited Bucharest, Romania (NATO). He met with President Nicusor Dan, Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, and senior legislators (NATO). Rutte is in Bucharest to attend the NATO-Industry Forum, a strategic-level event designed to coordinate defense industrial efforts across NATO states (NATO).

• German Investment: On November 3, Romania signed an agreement with German defense company Rheinmetall AG to construct and operate a gunpowder factory in Victoria, Brașov County (AP News). The plant is expected to cost $616 million, with construction beginning in 2026 (AP News). Construction is expected to be completed in 2029 (AP News).
  Note: Rheinmetall AG also announced a similar deal to construct a facility in Lithuania, which helps to highlight Romania’s growing role as a core partner on NATO’s eastern flank (X).
  In 2024, it was reported that Romania was expanding construction on the Mihail Kogalniceanu base on the Black Sea coast, with plans for the base to be larger than Ramstein in Germany (Balkan Insight).

• U.S. Troop Withdrawals: On October 30, the Pentagon announced it was reducing the number of U.S. troops deployed to Eastern Europe (CBS News). Reportedly, 700 soldiers in Germany, Poland, and Romania will not be replaced when their deployment ends (CBS News). Romanian officials confirmed that soldiers from the 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team and 101st Airborne Division will not be replaced, citing force posture rebalances (RUSI).

Why This Matters
Romania’s strategic role for NATO’s eastern flank is advancing. The Rheinmetall AG investment, as well as the base expansion, indicate that Europe intends to shift more production and operational capacity closer to the front line with Russia. This reduces reliance on a U.S. forward presence and increases the strategic importance of Romania’s infrastructure and territory.

As NATO force postures adjust, Romania’s ability to host, supply, and reinforce deployed forces will directly affect alliance deterrence in the Black Sea region. However, how quickly Romania can convert investment into operational capability, and whether Europe can sustain this security resurgence, will likely be a core EU security issue.

Germany Continues Immigration Reform, Refugee Repatriation Amid Growing Far-Right Sentiment

Summary
The German Chancellor is continuing to pursue migration reform, suggesting the repatriation of Syrian and Afghan migrants be expedited. The decision is supported by recent changes to Germany’s naturalization laws and a perpetuation of land border checks with fellow Schengen Zone members, as well as mainstream efforts to dilute support for the far-right AfD party.

Findings

• Background: Friedrich Merz became Germany’s Chancellor after his CDU/CSU Union party won the 2025 snap elections (DW). The CDU/CSU, which formed a coalition with the Social Democrats, narrowly beat the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party (DW). Germany has weathered political polarization, an economic crisis, demographic decline, mass migration, and migrant crime. Now, in an effort to address real German issues and combat the appeal of AfD, the Merz government has enacted measures to control Germany’s immigration crisis.
  On September 16, 2025, Germany reintroduced border checks to reduce irregular migrations, smuggling, and strain on the asylum system (EU, Fragomen). The border checks are scheduled to be in place until March 2026 (EU).

• Afghan Migrants: Despite claims that direct dialogue legitimizes the regime, German Chancellor Merz’s government has been negotiating with the Taliban government in Afghanistan (El País). Merz is reportedly negotiating the expedited deportation of Afghan migrants, undocumented refugees, and criminals amid the growing support for far-right politics in Germany (El País).

• Syrian Migrants: Chancellor Merz recently stated that because the Syrian Civil War is over, there is “no longer any reason” for Syrians to live in Germany (The Times of Israel). Merz has invited the new Syrian president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, to Berlin to discuss the matter (The Times of Israel). Nearly one million Syrians live in Germany (The Times of Israel).

• Naturalization Laws: In early October 2025, the Bundestag ended a three-year “fast-track naturalization” process (DW, Fragomen). Instead, German naturalization will take a minimum of five years, contingent on migrants meeting an economic, legal, and linguistic threshold (DW).
  In Germany, the Skilled Immigration Act is still law, allowing third-country nationals the opportunity to immigrate with a “Chancenkarte” (opportunity card) if they possess practical knowledge and vocational skills (German Government).

Why This Matters
Germany is weathering some issues (as mentioned in the background section), but of note is the rising popularity of the AfD, which German mainstream parties want to shrink and exclude from German politics. Migration reform in Germany is as much about addressing social and economic issues as it is about controlling the domestic political landscape.

So long as measures are being taken to address migration policies in Germany, the CDU/CSU and its coalition partner, SPD, can claim to be the champions of German voters and the sole hope for achieving a German economic and security resurgence in Europe.

Reporting Depicts Alleged Options For Military Action In Venezuela

Summary
A recent article by The New York Times claims President Trump is weighing various options for military intervention in Venezuela. At the same time, U.S. Marines and other joint forces conducted exercises in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean. A Russian transport aircraft also reportedly delivered advanced air defense systems to the Maduro regime.

Findings

• NYT Article: On November 4, The New York Times reported that the Trump administration has consulted the U.S. Department of Justice to provide a legal basis for expanding military action against Venezuela (The New York Times). The article claims that military action, based on President Maduro being believed to be the head of the Cartel de los Soles, could include strikes on military facilities, the capture of airports and oil fields, or the capture or assassination of Maduro (The New York Times). The article suggests Trump will not endorse a course of action until the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier enters the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility by mid-November (The New York Times).

• U.S. Marine Exercises: The New York Times reports that 10,000 personnel are deployed to the Caribbean, with nearly half being stationed at facilities in Puerto Rico (The New York Times).
  On November 1, Marines from the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) carried out amphibious landing drills in Puerto Rico (Army Recognition).

• Russian Air Defenses: Previous analysis by The Intel Brief, suggesting a Russian Il-76 transport aircraft could have delivered personnel and weapons systems to Venezuela, is confirmed (The Intel Brief, The War Zone). On October 5, The War Zone reported that Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E air defense systems were delivered to Venezuela by a Russian Il-76 aircraft (The War Zone). Additionally, the Kremlin reportedly stated that it is open to providing hypersonic missiles to Venezuela (The Telegraph).

Why This Matters
It would be foolish to think the Pentagon and the White House have not already planned and reviewed military options regarding an escalation with Venezuela, so the NYT piece is somewhat sensationalized in that regard.

Additionally, some coverage suggests Trump may authorize piecemeal operations, such as a raid to capture Maduro, or small strikes and seizures of critical sites and facilities. This is also a more sensationalized take.

Authorized strikes on Venezuela would likely include those on military and infrastructure targets that, if conducted well, would act as a shaping operation. If conducted at a large scale, these strikes would facilitate air superiority, amphibious assault, and assault support. If the U.S. continues strikes on known and defined cartel targets, it is likely that U.S. actions will fall short of conventional conflict (i.e. continued strikes by drones and other aircraft, but no invasion force).

Much of this appears to be resting on judicial review, disagreement in Congress, and conflicting decision points inside the Trump cabinet. Trump does not have the legal authority to begin a war with Venezuela, only Congress does, which is why we are more likely to see an expansion of strikes against cartel targets; strikes that grow more ambiguous and that tow the line of hitting conventional targets. This could prompt a conventional response by Venezuela, and give Trump freer authority to approve conventional operations through emergency powers.

European Union Publishes Progress Report On 2025 Enlargement Package

Summary
On November 3, the European Union adopted its annual Enlargement Package, which displays the progress made by nations seeking membership to the bloc. The package ensures the pace of reforms in politics, law, civil rights, and the economy.

Findings
The 2025 Enlargement Package suggests that it reforms remain on pace, the EU could welcome new members to the bloc by 2030.

Progress reports by country:

Why This Matters
EU accession is a big deal, as it is one of the benchmarks of the growth of Western values and the Liberal order (established by the U.S. after World War II). However, the EU’s enlargement faces some significant risks, some of which are regional and between prospective members. This begs the question as to how stable EU accession progress will be, or how stable the bloc will be if it continues to add members that meet the de jure qualifications but, in practice, show no intention of playing by the EU’s rules.

We should also consider the growing resentment of some current EU members, and the growing anti-Brussels bloc (like with Hungary and Slovakia). This is also something to be considered from a security perspective, as some nations like Georgia, Serbia, and Turkey have strong or growing alignment with Russia.

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

See you Sunday.
— Nick