Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.
Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving!
Welcome to another Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. This one is pretty significant, so let’s begin.
Reporting Period: November 24-27, 2025
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On November 25, American officials stated that Ukraine has agreed to a principal peace deal with Russia. Following American, European, and Ukrainian talks in Geneva, diplomats are reportedly addressing “delicate” but workable details for peace. If true, Ukraine’s acceptance of peace terms significantly increases the likelihood of negotiations resuming and a peace deal being reached before 2026. Previously, the Trump administration reportedly pressured Kyiv to reach a deal by today, November 27.
2. On November 25, 2025, the Space Systems Command confirmed it had issued multiple awards for a Space-Based Inteceptor (SBI) demonstration. Despite details initially being withheld, the White House announced that Northrop Grumman, True Anomaly, Lockheed Martin, and Anduril had been awarded contracts related to the Golden Dome project. At the same time, U.S. Army personnel recently completed C-UAS training and procurement testing in Europe.
3. On November 25, the U.S. Navy formally terminated plans for the Constellation-class frigate program, retaining only the first two hulls already under construction at Fincantieri Marinette Marine. The decision reflects a broader Pentagon effort to increase shipbuilding speed, address persistent cost overruns, and reorient the fleet toward faster-produced platforms. The move comes as the Navy confronts significant industrial base strain and growing pressure to counter rapid Chinese naval expansion.
Ukraine Reportedly Agrees To Peace Terms, Increasing Likelihood Of Negotiations, War’s End
Summary
On November 25, American officials stated that Ukraine has agreed to a principal peace deal with Russia. Following American, European, and Ukrainian talks in Geneva, diplomats are reportedly addressing “delicate” but workable details for peace. If true, Ukraine’s acceptance of peace terms significantly increases the likelihood of negotiations resuming and a peace deal being reached before 2026. Previously, the Trump administration reportedly pressured Kyiv to reach a deal by today, November 27.
Findings
Agreement of Terms: On November 25, U.S. officials reportedly claimed that Ukraine has “agreed to the peace deal” (NBC News). White House Press Secretary Leavitt confirmed that "a few delicate, but not insurmountable, details” need to be addressed before a deal is made (X). An unnamed official told NBC News that “Kyiv would sign the agreement” (NBC News).
Ukraine’s Secretary of National Security, who attended the Geneva talks, stated that his delegation “reached a common understanding of the core terms of the agreement discussed” (X).Ongoing Diplomacy: As of November 25, American and Russian officials are reportedly meeting in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to finalize those minor details (NBC News). U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is in Abu Dhabi while Steve Whitkoff is, reportedly, in Russia (Newsweek).
A Ukrainian delegation is reportedly attending the talks in Abu Dhabi (NBC News).
European Role: Amid ongoing negotiations, Secretary of State Rubio has refused to meet with his EU counterpart, Kaja Kallas, due to her uncooperative efforts behind the scenes (Visioner). Germany’s Chancellor Merz recently stated that European partners support a ceasefire and peace deal in Ukraine, but that Russia must begin negotiations (X). Likewise, UK Prime Minister Starmer stated that he welcomes the recent U.S. efforts but that Ukraine must determine its own interests (BBC).
These statements imply that there will not be a separate European peace plan or proposal of terms.France and the UK are reportedly coordinating plans to deploy troops to Ukraine as a post-peace stand-in force (POLITICO).
Trump-Zelenskyy Meeting: On November 25, during a virtual meeting with members of the “Coalition of the Willing,” President Zelenskyy confirmed that he is “ready to meet with President Trump” (NBC News). Zelenskyy stated that peace will be dependent on whether Russia is serious about ending this war of aggression” (NBC News). In a White House social media post, Trump stated he would like to meet with Zelenskyy “soon,” but only if the meeting is to establish a peace framework (The White House).
Why This Matters
Given Trump’s ultimatum of reaching a November 27 deal, U.S. and Ukrainian officials confirming support for terms, and broad European support (or rather, acceptance), suggests that a peace deal or long-term ceasefire will be reached before 2026.
It cannot be assumed that this will be the end of hostilities, conventional or otherwise. European leaders are likely to attempt to establish some type of peacekeeping force, as well as establish Western security guarantees for Ukraine. From a U.S. perspective, our stake in rebuilding Ukraine will attach security guarantees on the grounds of protecting our interests there.
Additionally, Germany’s Federal Foreign Office claims that “Our intelligence services urgently tell us: At the latest, Russia is creating the option for a war against NATO by no later than 2029.”
So whether European’s continue purchasing Russian energy, or Russia is brought into the G8, it is very likely that hostile politics will continue alongside increased hybrid warfare operations inside Ukraine and NATO. The Western policy must be to preserve the current order in Europe, maintain a reasonable security status quo, and outlive the Putin regime before attempting to fully reintegrate and open Russia. A return to the 2012 geopolitical status quo would be a Chamberlain-esque foreign policy mistake.
Threat Saturation: U.S. Space Force Awards Golden Dome Contracts, As Army Tests C-UAS In Germany
Summary
On November 25, 2025, the Space Systems Command confirmed it had issued multiple awards for a Space-Based Inteceptor (SBI) demonstration. Despite details initially being withheld, the White House announced that Northrop Grumman, True Anomaly, Lockheed Martin, and Anduril had been awarded contracts related to the Golden Dome project. At the same time, U.S. Army personnel recently completed C-UAS training and procurement testing in Europe.
Findings
Prototype Contracts Issued: On November 25, it was reported that the U.S. Space Force has awarded early prototype contracts for companies to develop a space-based interceptor (SBI) prototype demonstration (Space News).
Layered Defense: The Pentagon’s plan for the Golden Dome is to first establish a system of interceptor satellites, advanced command and control (C2) sensors, and networks for integrating existing U.S. missile defense platforms (Reuters, Arms Control Center).
U.S. Army Counter-UAS: Recent reporting states that U.S. Army contingents in Europe have completed Counter-UAS (C-UAS) training and product testing for rapid procurement as European nations continue to experience small drone incursions (Breaking Defense).
Project Flytrap 4.5: From November 10 to 21, U.S. Army personnel participated in Project Flytrap 4.5 in Germany, a “competition to counter simulated threats from Group 1-3 drones operating in NATO airspace” (Breaking Defense). Of the twenty participating companies, which offer C-UAS solutions, four were entered into the Army’s Global Tactical Edge Directorate (G-TEAD) Marketplace, a rapid acquisition pipeline (SAM, Breaking Defense).
“The Army identified the winning firms as AG3 Labs for its threat simulation tools, Armaments Research Company for its AI-enabled sensor capabilities, MatrixSpace for its suite of radar capabilities and Mountain Horse Solutions for its passive seeker and sensing systems and non-kinetic/kinetic engagement platforms. “
Joint Training: During the conduct of Project Flytrap, Army personnel with the 10th Army Air and Missile Defense Command trained alongside Polish and Romanian counterparts (Breaking Defense). The partners reportedly trained on the Merops counter-drone platform, conducting the first live demonstration on November 18 (Eurasian Times, Breaking Defense).
Why This Matters
The reason I bunched these two updates together (Golden Dome procurement and the quiet, unheard-of progress on C-UAS platforms) was to demonstrate the perpetual increase in threat saturation.
The United States and our allies, across all theaters, face the challenge of developing solutions for high-altitiude and long-range missiles, evasive and cheap loiter munitions, and space-based fires.
U.S. Navy Cancels Constellation-Class Frigate Program
Summary
On November 25, the U.S. Navy formally terminated plans for the Constellation-class frigate program, retaining only the first two hulls already under construction at Fincantieri Marinette Marine. The decision reflects a broader Pentagon effort to increase shipbuilding speed, address persistent cost overruns, and reorient the fleet toward faster-produced platforms. The move comes as the Navy confronts significant industrial base strain and growing pressure to counter rapid Chinese naval expansion.
Findings
Program Termination: On November 25, Secretary of the Navy John Phelan announced the termination of four planned Constellation-class frigates, citing unacceptable delays, escalating costs, and limited near-term value to fleet readiness (USNI News, Breaking Defense). The Navy will finish the hulls for the USS Constellation (FFG-62) and USS Congress (FFG-63), but will remain “under review” (USNI News). Internal Navy analysis concluded that modifying the FREMM parent design for U.S. survivability standards triggered cascading redesigns, driving a three-year schedule slip and cost increases approaching $1.5 billion (USNI News, CNN).
Retaining U.S. Shipbuilding: The decision keeps the Marinette shipyard active but limits the Constellation class to two hulls. Navy officials stated on November 25 that sustaining Marinette’s 3,000-person workforce is essential while the service transitions to new small surface combatant programs, including Landing Ship Medium and unmanned systems (USNI News). The Navy is looking to redirect unspent funds towards different projects that the Marinette shipyard.
Why This Matters
The cancellation echoes the November 7 “Arsenal of Freedom” speech by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, who declared that “speed to delivery” should be the Pentagon’s new procurement principle. It also aligns with the Trump administration’s decision to expand shipbuilding with international partners, and to export some of that demand. Senior defense officials reiterated on November 25 that the Navy must grow the fleet faster “to meet tomorrow’s threats,” showing an alignment with the ongoing acquisition reforms.
Another concern, which is out of my area of expertise, is whether the Constellation-class was a capable ship cancelled because of cost overruns, or an incapable ship that was over budget. I want to hear a Congressional testimony on this.
However, canceling this program is only one small step in the long list of what needs to be done. The U.S. is still massively outclassed by Chinese shipbuilding (by volume), with China now retaining the world’s largest navy (though maybe not the most capable).
End Brief
That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!
Have a Happy Thanksgiving,
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.