Good morning,

Let’s look at some updates from this week.

Reporting Period: November 10-13, 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Russia Willing To Resume Negotiations Amid Battlefield Advances In Ukraine

Summary
Russia has signaled renewed willingness to resume peace negotiations with Ukraine amid limited battlefield gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s reemergence and outreach to U.S. Secretary of State Rubio suggest a controlled diplomatic revival under Kremlin direction. Concurrently, Russian forces are exploiting adverse weather and logistical advantages to pressure Ukrainian lines, while intensifying strikes on energy infrastructure as Kyiv faces internal political and corruption challenges. Despite these advances, Russia’s economy remains under strain, with senior officials acknowledging stagnation and difficult conditions.

Findings

• Background: The last time Russian and Ukrainian officials convened for peace negotiations was July 23, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey (Reuters). At that meeting, Ukrainian officials suggested Presidents Zelenskyy and Putin meet, but Russia rejected the idea of a meeting outside of Moscow (Reuters).

• Diplomatic Resurgence: On November 12, Russia’s TASS news agency reported that Russia’s Foreign Ministry is willing to resume peace negotiations with Ukraine (Reuters). The Kremlin proposed a meeting take place in Istanbul, Turkey (Reuters). On November 12, TASS reported that Russia is willing to convene for the previously proposed Budapest Summit (TASS).
  Previous reporting claimed that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov had fallen out of favor with President Putin due to a lack of public appearances, disagreement on peace negotiations, and his planned absence at the upcoming G20 Summit in South Africa (Sky News, MSN). Now, Lavrov has stated to Secretary of State Rubio that Russia is ready to resume negotiations (MSN).

• Battlefield Updates: Recent battlefield updates suggest that Russia’s slow offensives are yielding territorial advances:

  • Donetsk Oblast: In Donetsk, Russian forces have advanced on Pokrovsk, one of the region’s last cities in Ukraine’s control (ISW). Pokrovsk, once a key logistics hub for Ukraine’s frontline, now serves as a symbolic area of control. Future Ukrainian offensive operations could be launched from there, but Russia’s interest appears to be to seize the town and claim “right of conquest” over Donetsk in future negotiations.

  • Zaporizhzhia Oblast: The Commander in Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Colonel General Syrskyi, stated that “numerical superiority in personnel and materiel” has led to Russian advances in southern Zaporizhzhia (Reuters, ISW). Reporting also suggests that worsening weather has exacerbated Russia’s logistical advantage, leading to Ukrainian troops being “pulled back from several positions” (Independent, ISW). Reportedly, Russian troops are advancing in “small groups” due to harsh weather restricting Ukraine’s ability to target them with drones (Independent).

• Ukraine’s Looming Energy Crisis: On November 11, Ukraine suspended former energy minister German Galushchenko (now a justice minister) for corruption allegations (Independent). At the same time, reports suggest Russia is expanding its strikes on energy and civilian infrastructure due to the onset of Winter (ISW). In previous years, the frontline has remained at a general standstill during Winter. If that trend continues, Russia is very likely to continue to expand drone and missile strikes on infrastructure to create hardship and coerce civil unrest.

• Russian Economy: Reporting claims that Sberbank’s senior official, German Gref, reported “very modest” growth and “challenging macroeconomic conditions” to Putin (The Guardian). The Guardian notes that the report defies previous attempts to portray the Russian economy as strong (The Guardian).

Why This Matters
Russia’s interest in resuming diplomatic dialogue, while it experiences limited battlefield gains and persistent economic turmoil, suggests Putin wants to negotiate from a position of perceived strength in an effort to coerce the most favorable deal possible.

The timing also suggests that Western sanctions, given Russia’s economic struggles, are impossible to weather in the long term (especially as NATO and Europe pursue security and economic revivals).

As for talks themselves, what is most likely? Perhaps in the short term, Russia and Ukraine will convene in Turkey and reach another minor deal in good faith, such as a prisoner exchange. But now that high-level U.S. and Russian officials are talking again, it is growing more likely that the Budapest Summit will happen.

A Budapest Summit would likely be preceded by a meeting between Rubio and Lavrov, before Trump and Putin.

EU Commission To Create New Intelligence Unit

Summary
European Union officials confirmed that President Ursula von der Leyen is looking to create a new European intelligence service. The proposed agency would be used to centralize intelligence sharing and analysis between EU member states and support the European External Action Service (EEAS). The initiative has already faced significant criticism over its legality and usefulness.

Findings

• New Intelligence Unit: On November 11, it was reported that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is seeking to establish a new transnational intelligence service in Brussels (Euronews). According to POLITICO, details about the agency’s name, staffing numbers, or launch date have not been disclosed (POLITICO). The plan to create the new agency has not been presented to the 27 member states (Euronews).
  One source claims the unit would be directly subservient to the EU Commission’s Secretariat-General, a position second to the president (Brussels Signal).

  • Scope: Citing a “challenging geopolitical and geo-economic environment,” the creation of a new intelligence service in Brussels would allow the EU Commission to gather “data and analysis from national agencies” (Brussels Signal).
    The unit’s primary function would appear to be supporting the European External Action Service (EEAS), the EU’s primary foreign policy body (Euronews, EEAS).

• Controversy: Some media outlets and European officials have rejected the idea of creating a new intelligence service. First, the EU does not have the legal basis to compel domestic intelligence services to provide all of its intelligence to Brussels. This also raises the question of enforcement, even if EU law compelled compliance.
  Second, critics have noted the existence of EU intelligence services such as the Single Intelligence Analysis Capacity (SIAC), which combines data and analysis from the European Union Intelligence and Situation Center (EU INTCEN) and the European Union Military Staff (EUMS) (German Federal Ministry of Defence, EU Observer, Statewatch, TASS).
  Finally, critics have also suggested the expansion would reduce the influence of the EEAS and grant disproportionate powers to the EU Commission president (Euronews, Brussels Signal).

Why This Matters
The looming question, beyond the legality or usefulness of a new EU intelligence service, is whether or not member states would adhere to this expansion of Brussels’ supranationalism.

Europe already has transnational intelligence services, and a foreign affairs directorate, so this development seems like an overreach. It is likely that as details are provided to the public, the proposal will be bundled up with other policies and plans that make up the ReArm Europe (a sort of justification). This proposal also risks the Commission provoking institutional friction and member-state pushback, particularly from countries wary of ceding sovereignty or sharing sensitive intelligence with Brussels (think Eastern EU members).

Thailand Halts Agreements With Cambodia Following Lethal Mine Incident

Summary
Thailand has suspended all agreements with Cambodia following a landmine incident that injured Thai soldiers in a disputed border region. The suspension halts implementation of the October 26 ceasefire agreement brokered by President Trump, which ended a five-day conflict in July that killed at least 48 soldiers and displaced 300,000 civilians. Despite heightened tensions, both governments have maintained communication, and no renewed fighting has been reported.

Findings

• Background: In mid-July 2025, a five-day border conflict erupted between Thailand and Cambodia (The Intel Brief, CNN). On July 28, President Trump orchestrated an initial ceasefire (The Intel Brief). On October 26, Trump oversaw the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia (The Intel Brief). At least 48 soldiers were killed and 300,000 were displaced during the brief border conflict (BBC, CNA).

• Landmine Incident: On November 12, Thailand’s foreign ministry stated that freshly laid landmines injured Thai soldiers (BBC, CNA).
  Thailand claims landmines were laid in an area where Cambodian troops were discovered removing barbed wire on November 9, 2025 (CNN).
  Cambodia denies laying landmines in the contested border region.

• Halting the Peace Agreement: On November 12, Thai General Ukris Boontanondha stated that he was “halting all agreements until Cambodia clearly and sincerely demonstrates that it will not be ‘hostile’” (BBC, CNN).
  Despite Thailand’s pause of agreements, there have been no reports of fighting. Cambodia’s Ministry of Defense confirmed that both sides communicated following the mine incident (CNN).

Why This Matters
Thailand’s suspension of peace agreements underscores the fragility of the ceasefire and the enduring volatility of Southeast Asia’s border disputes. The incident risks reigniting hostilities along one of the region’s most contested frontiers and undermines U.S.-brokered diplomatic progress. If the pause in cooperation persists, it could disrupt regional affairs, weaken ASEAN cohesion, and invite external actors, such as China, to exert greater influence under the guise of mediation or investment in border security.

End Brief

That concludes this brief.

Thank you for reading!
— Nick