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Good morning,
Welcome to the Thursday brief. This one is shorter this week.
Reporting Period: January 5-8, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On January 6, European leaders, NATO representatives, and Ukraine met in Paris and agreed on a framework for long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, now openly backed by the United States. The plan includes continued military aid, a U.S.-led ceasefire verification mechanism, and the deployment of a French- and UK-led multinational force in Ukraine following a ceasefire with Russia. The coalition also discussed creating a legal obligation to defend Ukraine if Russia attacks again, mirroring NATO’s Article 5.
2. On January 6, Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as the new president of Venezuela. American officials appear to support the appointment, despite rhetoric by Rodriguez that seems to legitimize Maduro’s regime. As interim president, Rodriguez stated she will collaborate with American officials and policy interests.
3. Reports that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has discussed contingency plans to flee Iran, alongside continued nationwide protests driven by economic collapse, indicate growing regime anxiety about its ability to maintain internal control. The convergence of sustained civil unrest, currency freefall, and leadership fears of external exploitation by the United States and Israel suggests the regime views the current situation as a potential inflection point rather than irregular dissent.
Allies Agree On Security Guarantees For Ukraine, Backed By United States
Summary
On January 6, European leaders, NATO representatives, and Ukraine met in Paris and agreed on a framework for long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, now openly backed by the United States. The plan includes continued military aid, a U.S.-led ceasefire verification mechanism, and the deployment of a French- and UK-led multinational force in Ukraine following a ceasefire with Russia. The coalition also discussed creating a legal obligation to defend Ukraine if Russia attacks again, mirroring NATO’s Article 5.
Findings
Paris Meeting: On January 6, 27 heads of state, the European Union, and NATO attended a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing” in Paris, France, to discuss peace in Ukraine (UNN, Euro News).
Reportedly, the attendees clarified a structure for security guarantees for Ukraine:Implementing a U.S.-led verification mechanism to ensure no ceasefire violations.
Providing continued military support to Ukraine’s armed forces.
Organizing, deploying, and supporting a multinational force in Ukraine, led by France and the UK.
Crafting a legal obligation to assist Ukraine in the event of an attack by Russia, similar to NATO’s Article 5.
Establishing a long-term defense cooperation framework with Kyiv.
Multinational Force: On January 6, in a separate trilateral session, Zelenskyy, Starmer, and Macron signed a declaration of intent to deploy a multinational peacekeeping force in Ukraine after a ceasefire is reached with Russia (UNN). France and the UK plan to support Ukraine with sea, air, and land assets, and President Macron confirmed that Turkey will provide naval support (Euro News). Turkey’s support indicates that participation in the multinational force may expand over time.
“I can say that following a ceasefire, the UK and France will establish military hubs across Ukraine and build protected facilities for weapons and military equipment to support Ukraine's defensive needs.”
Why This Matters
The summit demonstrated a new U.S. position that is firmly aligned with Kyiv, and attempts to hinder or reduce Moscow’s “maximalist demands” by ensuring some Ukrainian sovereignty. Additionally, the commitment suggests any ceasefire or peace deal will be enforced, not just signed, voiced, and ignored (a standard that makes a renewed Russian invasion vastly more costly and high-risk).
Why? Because it effectively locks Ukraine into the Western security architecture even without formal NATO membership, making the conflict less about Ukraine’s survival and more about whether Russia is willing to directly challenge a U.S.- and Europe-backed military presence on its border.
Rodriguez Sworn In As Venezuelan President
Summary
On January 6, Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as the new president of Venezuela. American officials appear to support the appointment, despite rhetoric by Rodriguez that seems to legitimize Maduro’s regime. As interim president, Rodriguez stated she will collaborate with American officials and policy interests.
Findings
U.S. Reaction: The Trump administration appears to support Rodriguez’s appointment as interim president, because the assessment in Washington is that she will comply with American interests (NBC News). That being said, Rodriguez apparently stated that Maduro remains the “only president” in Venezuela, but that her administration will collaborate with President Trump and his policy agendas (NBC News).
Why This Matters
Rodriguez’s appointment seems like a short-term or interim solution while the U.S. finds a feasible way to establish diplomatic institutions in Venezuela, and ensure free elections are feasible. Rodriguez’s statement that Maduro remains the sole president of Venezuela seems suspect, but is likely an attempt at garnering support from Maduro loyalists and would-be out groups (a power consolidation tactic).
Still, American strategic objectives (and how to achieve them) remain uncertain in Venezuela, especially as talk of intervention in Cuba and Colombia persists.
Protests Continue In Iran As Reports Suggest Khamenei May Flee
Summary
Reports that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has discussed contingency plans to flee Iran, alongside continued nationwide protests driven by economic collapse, indicate growing regime anxiety about its ability to maintain internal control. The convergence of sustained civil unrest, currency freefall, and leadership fears of external exploitation by the United States and Israel suggests the regime views the current situation as a potential inflection point rather than irregular dissent.
Findings
Fleeing Iran: The Times reports that senior Iranian officials have discussed the possibility of fleeing to Russia if control over civil society and ongoing protests does not improve (SOURCE). Supreme Leader Khamenei is reportedly considering fleeing to Moscow (SOURCE).
Protests: Demonstrations have continued across Iran’s major cities after the Rial hit a historic low, prompting unrest. Protests have devolved into anti-regime protests, some of which have been met with violence by regime security forces.
Intervention: Recently, reports have emerged from Iran that claim the Khamenei regime believes Israel and the United States may intervene to exploit civil unrest and facilitate regime change (SOURCE).
Why This Matters
Reporting that Supreme Leader Khamenei may be preparing contingency options outside Iran reflects serious concern within the regime about its ability to contain sustained unrest. Continued nationwide protests, combined with economic collapse, raise the risk that regime control could fail rapidly rather than erode gradually.
The immediate risk is that ongoing protests or perceived U.S. or Israeli intervention may accelerate violent regime change. Such a collapse would likely be chaotic, marked by internal fighting between regime forces, militias, and opposition groups. Iran lacks a clear succession mechanism or unified opposition leadership, increasing the probability that instability would spread rather than consolidate into a post-regime government.
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End Brief
That concludes this brief.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.