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Good morning,
Welcome back to another mid-week briefing.
Reporting Period: January 12-15, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. Protests are ongoing across Iran, and Iranian security forces are using lethal force against protestors. Various developments, including Starlink access and regime change rhetoric, suggest the US may soon decide on how it will intervene.
2. On January 10, Secretary Hegseth traveled to Castelion headquarters to inspect the Blackbeard Hypersonic Strike Weapon System. The system will integrate with existing HIMARS and MLRS systems, a marked improvement to the existing expeditionary fires platforms.
3. On January 10, President Petro proposed the reestablishment of Gran Colombia. The confederation concept would be based on the historical Gran Colombia, with a political, economic, and judicial structure similar to the European Union. The proposal came after Trump and Petro spoke on the phone.
4. On January 14, Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio met with the Foreign Ministers of Denmark in Greenland. The pair hosted the foreign diplomats at the White House. Before the meeting, Trump took to Truth Social to reaffirm his intent to acquire Greenland for strategic purposes.
Protests Continue In Iran, US Intervention More Likely
Summary
Protests are ongoing across Iran, and Iranian security forces are using lethal force against protestors. Various developments, including Starlink access and regime change rhetoric, suggest the US may soon decide on how it will intervene.
Findings
Intervention Options: On January 13, Vice President Vance’s communications director confirmed that Vance and Secretary of State Rubio are “presenting a suite of options” to President Trump, which range from “diplomatic approach to military actions” (Al Jazeera).
Various developments and rhetoric by President Trump suggest US intervention will occur soon:
Tariffs: On January 12, President Trump announced on Truth Social that any nation doing business with Iran “will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States” (Truth Social).
Encouragement and Blocked Diplomacy: On January 13, President Trump posted to Truth Social, urging Iranian protestors to “Keep protesting” and to “Take over [your] institutions” (Truth Social). Trump also stated all meetings with Iranian officials have been cancelled so long as protestors are being killed (Truth Social).
Meeting with Iranian Crown Prince: On January 13, it was reported that US Envoy Steve Witkoff secretly met with the exiled Iranian Crown Prince, Reza Pahlavi, over the weekend (Axios).
Starlink: On January 13, CNN confirmed that Starlink services were made available, for free, over Iran (CNN). Internet services were blocked by the Iranian regime during the onset of protests. Starlink allows Iranian civilians to hear from the outside world, coordinate protests, and distinguish between news and regime propaganda.
Why This Matters
Iran is moving closer to a breaking point as protests spread and the regime responds with lethal force. American actions (like sanctions, tariffs, tanker seizures, public encouragement, Starlink access, and talks with the Crown Prince) suggest that Washington is preparing intervention options to facilitate regime change.
The immediate danger is that unrest or external intervention could trigger violent regime collapse, creating widespread instability in a country of 90 million people. Such a collapse would likely produce a humanitarian crisis, regional spillover, and disruptions to global energy markets. If the regime survives, it may respond by escalating repression internally and aggression abroad, raising the risk of direct US or Israeli military action.
US Confirms Blackbeard Hypersonic Missile Capability For HIMARS
Summary
On January 10, Secretary Hegseth traveled to Castelion headquarters to inspect the Blackbeard Hypersonic Strike Weapon System. The system will integrate with existing HIMARS and MLRS systems, a marked improvement to the existing expeditionary fires platforms.
Findings
Background: On October 24, 2024, the US Army and US Navy awarded Castelion with contracts to produce and deliver the Blackbeard Hypersonic Strike Weapon System (Castelion). On December 5, 2026, Castelion announced it raised $350 million in Series B financing to scale its Blackbeard production (Castelion). The funding will be used for three key objectives:
Integrating Blackbeard with US Army and US Navy platforms.
Advancing Project Ranger, the building of production and final-assembly facilities.
2026 multi-platform testing.
Castelion states it will be able to produce “thousands” of Blackbeard missiles per year (Castelion).
“Blackbeard is Castelion’s first long-range, hypersonic strike weapon, designed for mass production and rapid fielding… The system leverages vertically integrated propulsion and guidance subsystems to achieve performance at a fraction of the cost of legacy weapons – supporting the Department’s objective of building credible, non-nuclear deterrent capacity at scale.”
SECWAR Inspection: On January 10, Secretary of War Hegseth visited Castelion headquarters to review the Blackbeard hypersonic program and its launcher system (Defence Blog). The visit included a demonstration of the Blackbeard’s Palletized Field Artillery Launcher, a launcher with four missile pods (Defence Blog).
Existing Systems Compatibility: On January 12, defense media confirmed that Blackbeard will be compatible with the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) (Reuters, The Defense Watch).
For HIMARS, the Blackbeard will offer engagement ranges upwards of 1,000 kilometers against mobile targets (The Defense Watch).
Why This Matters
Integrating a hypersonic missile into HIMARS and MLRS fundamentally advances US stand-off capabilities in regions where the systems are deployed (notably, the islands of the Indo-Pacific and First Island Chain).
It allows dispersed, mobile units to strike high-value targets without relying on aircraft or naval platforms. Mass production at lower cost will eventually address a key weakness of limited hypersonics and slow fielding for new systems.
Colombian President Proposes Reformation Of Gran Colombia
Summary
On January 10, President Petro proposed the reestablishment of Gran Colombia. The confederation concept would be based on the historical Gran Colombia, with a political, economic, and judicial structure similar to the European Union. The proposal came after Trump and Petro spoke on the phone.
Findings
Background: Following the United States’ Operation Absolute Resolve to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, President Trump and US officials suggested military intervention could occur in Colombia.
Trump-Petro Phone Call: On January 7, members of Congress organized a phone call between President Trump and Colombian President Petro (NBC News). The call reportedly de-escalated the Trump-Petro feud, and both leaders agreed to meet in February (NBC News, The City Paper Bogota).
La Gran Colombia: On January 10, President Petro proposed the reconstruction of Gran Colombia, a transnational confederation of Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Panama, and parts of Peru and Brazil (Colombia One). On social media, Petro proposed reconstructing “Bolivar’s idea” by forming Gran Colombia with constituent voting, a Tribunal of Justice, and a Grancolombiano Parliament (Colombia One). The proposed idea would reportedly mimic the structure of the European Union whereby autonomous states enter into a supranationalist governing body to coordinate security, economics, technology, and diplomacy.
Why This Matters
The Trump-Petro phone call, and Petro’s push for La Gran Colombia, suggest that Washington and Bogota have reached some sort of strategic agreement in which Colombia can play a greater role in supporting U.S. policy objectives in the region.
US, Danish, Greenland Officials Meet
Summary
On January 14, Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio met with the Foreign Ministers of Denmark in Greenland. The pair hosted the foreign diplomats at the White House. Before the meeting, Trump took to Truth Social to reaffirm his intent to acquire Greenland for strategic purposes.
Findings
Background: Following the United States’ Operation Absolute Resolve to capture Venezuelan President Maduro, President Trump resumed rhetoric suggesting the US would acquire Greenland from Denmark through purchase or military invasion.
President Trump maintains the US “needs” Greenland to bolster Arctic security, secure emerging shipping lanes, extract rare earth materials, and support the Golden Dome air defense project. Trump also claims China and Russia have strategic interests in acquiring Greenland militarily (Truth Social).
Meeting: On January 14, Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio met with Danish and Greenland officials at the White House (ABC News). Ahead of the meeting, Trump stated the US’s need to acquire Greenland (see above). Denmark, Greenland, and NATO allies state that an American invasion of Greenland would be the end of NATO (ABC News). Trump reportedly wants to purchase Greenland for up to $700 billion (NBC News).
Deployments: Currently, the US operates Pituffik Space Base on Greenland (formerly Thule Air Base). Denmark hosts three bases, and is reportedly constructing four more US Air Force bases (The Guardian).
Denmark and Norway have already sent troops to Greenland in response to Trump’s rhetoric, while Germany and France have pledged to deploy small forces (Reuters).
Why This Matters
It is uncertain if a diplomatic solution over Greenland, such as a purchase or long-term land lease, will be agree by US and Danish officials. Both Denmark and Greenland are intent on retaining their respective sovereignty and influence over the island.
If such a solution cannot be reached, then it is possible that a diplomatic crisis could unfold (or a security crisis in the worst-case scenario).
End Brief
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