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This Thursday morning brief has an extended coverage range. The Intel Brief will resume its normal rotation (Pacific Weekly, Monday Morning Brief, and Thursday Morning Brief) on March 9, 2026.
Reporting Period: February 26 - March 5, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On March 4, the Department of War conducted a press conference on the “First 100 Hours” of Operation Epic Fury. The brief detailed the effectiveness of strikes in an effort to establish air superiority and destroy Iran’s navy. As US-Israeli operations continue, the European and Middle Eastern intervention (even defensively) is increasing.
2. Fighting between Pakistan and Taliban-controlled Afghanistan has escalated after the collapse of a Qatar-mediated ceasefire. On February 26, Pakistan declared “open war” and conducted strikes in Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia following militant attacks in northwest Pakistan. Reports indicate Taliban Supreme Leader Mullah Akhundzada was killed in the retaliatory strikes, raising the risk of further instability and leadership fragmentation. The conflict risks becoming protracted, increasing the likelihood of regional spillover involving India, Iran, and potentially external powers as broader Middle East tensions intensify.
US, Israeli Operations Continue In Iran
Summary
On March 4, the Department of War conducted a press conference on the “First 100 Hours” of Operation Epic Fury. The brief detailed the effectiveness of strikes in an effort to establish air superiority and destroy Iran’s navy. As US-Israeli operations continue, the European and Middle Eastern intervention (even defensively) is increasing.
Findings and Analysis
For background information, take a look at my Iran INFOSUM #1 and Iran INFOSUM #2. Both should detail much of the first 100 hours of the US-Israeli operations against Iran.
First 100 Hours: On March 4, the Department of War conducted a press conference regarding the “First 100 Hours” of Operation Epic Fury (DOW). Militarily, the US and Israel rapidly established air superiority and destroyed Iran’s navy, two factors that greatly expand our operational range and capability (DOW). Additionally, strikes neutralized Supreme Leader Khamenei and at least 45 other senior Iranian political and military leaders (IDF).
New Supreme Leader: As of March 3, Supreme Leader Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, has been named as the favorite to be the new Supreme Leader of Iran (Visegrad 24, The Guardian). Previous reporting stated that Ayatollah Alireza Arafi was named as interim Supreme Leader (The Intel Brief).
Comment: I have read that Mojtaba is a favored candidate for Supreme Leader, but that he has not been officially chosen. It is possible the announcement or decision could be intentionally delayed or withheld in order to protect the candidate.
International Intervention: On March 3, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom (aka E3) issued a joint statement stating they would take “defensive action” against Iran (Ground News, Anadolu Ajansı). The E3 issued the statement due to Iran’s “indiscriminate and disproportionate missile attacks… including those who were not involved in initial US and Israeli military operations” (Ground News).
In addition to European (and Middle Eastern) nations preparing defensive actions, some reports indicate the US may attempt to arm and mobilize Kurdish forces to fight Iranian security forces and encourage regime change (Ground News).
Comment: Should Iran continue to target non-aggressors, such as E3 bases or assets in the region, it is possible that the E3 partners will take an offensive role in the ongoing operation. The likelihood of this occurring also increases as the US and Israel “soften” Iran’s military capabilities and decrease the risk of Iran striking targets abroad.
Conflict Between Pakistan, Afghanistan Continues
Summary
Fighting between Pakistan and Taliban-controlled Afghanistan has escalated after the collapse of a Qatar-mediated ceasefire. On February 26, Pakistan declared “open war” and conducted strikes in Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia following militant attacks in northwest Pakistan. Reports indicate Taliban Supreme Leader Mullah Akhundzada was killed in the retaliatory strikes, raising the risk of further instability and leadership fragmentation. The conflict risks becoming protracted, increasing the likelihood of regional spillover involving India, Iran, and potentially external powers as broader Middle East tensions intensify.
Findings and Analysis
Background: NBC News reports that Pakistani forces and Taliban militants have struggled to maintain the Qatar-mediated ceasefire established in October 2025 (NBC News). On February 26, Pakistan declared “open war” with Taliban-controlled Afghanistan (NBC News). Pakistan carried out strikes on Kabul, Kandahar province, and Paktia province following a Taliban assault in Northwest Pakistan on February 26 (NBC News). The Supreme Leader of the Taliban, Mullah Akhundzada, was reportedly killed in Pakistan’s retaliatory strikes (Visegrad 24).
Comment: The conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a massive destabilizing factor in the region. The chance of a protracted conflict between the two states increases the chance of a humanitarian crisis developing. The chances of each state requesting foreign aid or intervention also increase as time goes on, and with the Trump administration previously stating it would like to reacquire Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan, Pakistan could reach an agreement with Pakistan. Additionally, comments by Pakistani Defense Minister Asif (above) claiming Afghanistan is a “colony of India” run by the Taliban could be the basis for rapid deterioration of tensions with New Delhi. Remember, India and Pakistan engaged in various skirmishes in May 2025, which only ended due to US official intervening to establish a ceasefire (The Intel Brief).
Relation to Ongoing US-Israeli Operations: On February 15, The Jerusalem Post reported that the Taliban may aid Iran in the event of a US attack (The Jerusalem Post). Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid told Radio Iran that the Taliban would aid Tehran if a request for assistance was issued (The Jerusalem Post). Likewise, questions have emerged if Pakistan will join the war against Iran, due to defense pact obligations with Saudi Arabia (Firstpost).
Comment: With these considerations, it is clearer to see how quickly the situation in the Middle East could expand, and how the US could offer military support and intervention in Afghanistan in order to open a “new front” against Iran and to retake Bagram Air Base. This scenario becomes more likely as the US operation in Iran goes on, and as objectives become less transparent.
Duration: It is uncertain whether the fighting between Pakistani forces and the Taliban will simmer, but Pakistan stated that it is in “no hurry” to end military operations and that it will ensure Taliban militant groups are destroyed (Bloomberg, Reuters). Pakistan also stated that the duration and success of operations depend on “actions on the ground,” implying a long-term ground campaign is imminent (Bloomberg, Reuters).
Comment: One thing to consider is that Pakistan’s goal is not just to defeat the Taliban, but to stabilize the region by ridding it of terrorism. The Islamic State is also reportedly seeking a resurgence in Afghanistan, which means a broad counter-terrorism conflict or operation could last indefinitely.
End Brief
That concludes this brief.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.
Comments represent the analysis, opinions, and estimates of The Intel Brief writer(s).