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Good morning,
Welcome back to another mid-week briefing. Let’s take a look at what has happened so far.
Reporting Period: February 2-5, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. Trilateral peace talks with the US, Ukraine, and Russia continue in the UAE today. The second round of talks began yesterday, February 4. While unlikely to yield a ceasefire or initial peace deal, an optimistic outlook would be if the talks resulted in a high-level peace conference between heads of state being scheduled.
2. On February 2, President Trump hosted Prime Minister Modi at the White House. The pair announced that they had reached a trade deal, ending a long trade war and trend of deteriorating relations between the US and India. No formal deal has been signed.
3. President Trump has engaged in high-level diplomacy with Colombia and Cuba. President Petro visited the White House, while Trump stated that his cabinet has been working on a “deal” with the Cuban government. The talks mark a significant de-escalation in the region following the operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro.
REMINDER: Gov’t Shutdown Ends, Partial DHS Funding Poses Risk To Political Stability
On February 3, President Trump signed a funding bill to end the partial government shutdown and fund the government for the remainder of FY2026. The legislation, which includes five spending bills, was passed in the House 217 to 214. However, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was only given two weeks of funding, which will expire on February 14. Members of Congress will need to quickly build a funding solution for DHS that can retain bipartisan support.
Trilateral Peace Talks Continue Today Despite Russian Victory Rhetoric
Summary
Trilateral peace talks with the US, Ukraine, and Russia continue in the UAE today. The second round of talks began yesterday, February 4. While unlikely to yield a ceasefire or initial peace deal, an optimistic outlook would be if the talks resulted in a high-level peace conference between heads of state being scheduled.
Findings and Analysis
Background: On January 23, 2026, an American delegation led by envoy Steve Witkoff met with Ukrainian and Russian diplomats in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (The Intel Brief). The talks were the first time all three nations have concurrently conducted direct diplomacy since the start of the war in 2022 (The Intel Brief).
Despite no ceasefire or peace terms being agreed, Witkoff called the first trilateral meeting “constructive” and that “plans were made to continue conversations” (The Intel Brief).
Comment: A second round of talks was originally scheduled for Sunday, February 1, but was postponed for undisclosed reasons (The New York Times). Speculation is that the session was postponed due to ongoing drone and missile strikes, particularly on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure.
At that time, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov suggested that Russia would soon achieve its “victory” in Ukraine (Reuters).
Second Trilateral Meeting: On February 1, 2026, President Zelenskyy confirmed that the second trilateral meeting, hosted by the UAE, would take place from February 4 to 5, 2026 (X).
Comment: While Zelenskyy has voiced his intent to end the war via negotiations, it is unlikely that a deal will be reached. The myriad peace agreements signed in 2025 were overseen by heads of state, with President Trump presiding over the ceremonies as a representative and signatory for the United States. If anything is to come from negotiations at this level, it would likely be an agreement on principles and the coordination of a peace summit. A peace summit would likely be convened with Putin, Zelenskyy, and Trump, and perhaps representatives from Europe. Even if a peace agreement is made and signed, it still needs to be legally ratified in each country.
US, India Reach Trade Deal; No Agreement Signed Yet
Summary
On February 2, President Trump hosted Prime Minister Modi at the White House. The pair announced that they had reached a trade deal, ending a long trade war and trend of deteriorating relations between the US and India. No formal deal has been signed.
Findings and Analysis
Comment: The US-India trade deal is being viewed as a major revitalization of US-Indian relations, and an exit for India from Trump’s global trade war (Al Jazeera). There are some gray areas, however, as India did not publicly confirm some of the details shared by Trump, such as the purchase of Russian oil or the hundreds of billions of dollars to be spent on American goods.
Some media notes that the Trump-Modi presser and posts on social media are merely statements, and that a formal trade agreement has not been signed (Carnegie Endowment, Al Jazeera).
Trump’s Statement: On February 2, President Trump announced that he had reached a trade deal with India (Truth Social). Trump confirmed that the 25% reciprocal tariff rate will be reduced to 18% for India, and that India “will likewise move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO” (Truth Social). Trump also confirmed that Prime Minister Modi committed to purchasing US and Venezuelan oil, instead of Russian (Truth Social). In his statement, Trump also stated India will spend upwards of $500 billion on US products, despite only spending $40 billion on American goods a year, indicating a long-term economic plan or plans for major, unannounced purchases (Truth Social, National Review).
Comment: Now that a trade deal has been reached, and high-level business between the US and India can be considered settled for the time being, we are likely to see an expansion to the US-Indian relationship. Trump and the US view India as an increasingly important geopolitical partner, given India’s proximity to China’s frontier, its large population and economy, and its regional influence. Likewise, India continues to deal with terrorism in Balochistan, and could work with the US on intelligence sharing and counterterrorism operations. Both Modi and Trump are likely to leverage interests and needs against the other, with room for cooperation growing now that economic matters are settled.
Trump Talks With Colombia, Cuba Following Venezuela Tensions
Summary
President Trump has engaged in high-level diplomacy with Colombia and Cuba. President Petro visited the White House, while Trump stated that his cabinet has been working on a “deal” with the Cuban government. The talks mark a significant de-escalation in the region following the operation to capture Venezuelan President Maduro.
Findings and Analysis
Background: On January 3, 2026, America’s joint forces conducted Operation Absolute Resolve, which led to the capture of President Maduro and his wife from their residence in Caracas, Venezuela (The Intel Brief). On January 6, Vice President Rodriguez was sworn in as President of Venezuela (The Intel Brief). Rodriguez stated that she would work with the Trump administration to govern and stabilize Venezuela.
On January 7, Secretary of State Rubio confirmed that a “Three-Phase Plan” for Venezuela had been organized to ensure stable governance, investment in energy, and amnesty for the returning Venezuelan diaspora and political dissidents (The Intel Brief).
Comment: The situation in Venezuela was denounced by various South American nations, notably Colombia and Cuba. Shortly before and after Operation Absolute Resolve was carried out, President Trump suggested that the US could intervene in Colombia and Cuba if their respective leaders failed to cooperate with Washington’s strategic goals in the region.
Colombia Relations: On January 7, 2026, members of Congress organized a phone call with President Trump and President Petro of Colombia (The Intel Brief). Petro, who has a desire to reestablish La Gran Colombia, was reportedly swayed to work with the Trump administration during the first phone call. On February 3, Petro met with Trump at the White House for nearly two hours (PBS). Trump confirmed that he and Petro discussed “cooperation in counternarcotics operations” and regional trade (PBS).
Comment: Colombia is one of our major non-NATO allies, and Trump seems keen on resetting soured relations to enhance the counternarcotics and counterterrorist operations that are wrapped under Operation Southern Spear. Additionally, Trump’s relationship with Petro could continue to grow, especially if plans to stabilize and open Venezuela fail, as the Gran Colombia vision is more possible now than ever.
Cuba Relations: On February 1, 2026, President Trump confirmed to reporters that his administration is engaged in talks with Cuban officials to “strike a deal” (The Guardian).
On January 29 (before talks between the two governments), the White House published an Executive Order designating the government of Cuba as a national security threat due to its alignment to revisionist, near-peer adversaries (i.e. Russia, China, and Iran) (The White House). Trump also announced new tariffs against Cuba, or anyone trading oil to Cuba (The White House).
Comment: Cuba’s government essentially propped itself up on Venezuelan oil and rhetorical support from Russia, China, Iran, and multipolar advocates. With the Maduro regime out and Venezuelan oil blocked from entering Havana, Trump has pressured Cuba’s communist government into a position where it must cooperate or risk capitulation. Trump did not detail what a deal will look like, but it may include provisions regarding trade, oil imports, immigration and trafficking, and security cooperation.
End Brief
That concludes this brief.
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This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.
Comments represent the analysis, opinions, and estimates of The Intel Brief writer(s).