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Good morning,
This is your weekly update while I am away - one brief for the whole week.
Reporting Period: February 19-26, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. As nuclear talks continue in Switzerland, continued US military deployments suggest impending military action against Iran. President Trump maintains that a peaceful, diplomatic solution is preferable, but that time is running out.
2. NATO has been conducting various exercises and operations to increase joint cooperation. However, the ongoing Arctic Sentry activity is in direct response to Russian military operations in the region.
3. The USDA reported at the end of January that the American cattle herd has fallen to nearly 85 million head. The herd size is the smallest it has been since 1951, and a significant decrease from the 1975 peak of 132 million. Beef prices have risen nearly 15% year-over-year in 2026, with price decreases not expected until 2028 or later.
I will be publishing a single Thursday weekly update until March 8, 2026, due to my USMCR obligations (i.e. the Monday and Thursday briefs will be one). Thank you for understanding!
Continued US Military Buildup Suggests Imminent Conflict With Iran Despite Continued Nuclear Talks
Summary
As nuclear talks continue in Switzerland, continued US military deployments suggest impending military action against Iran. President Trump maintains that a peaceful, diplomatic solution is preferable, but that time is running out.
Findings and Analysis
Military Buildup and Strike Options: On February 19, it was reported that President Trump has ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Middle East, making it the second American aircraft carrier in the region (the USS Abraham Lincoln has been deployed there) (CBS News). Reporting also suggested that President Trump is “weighing an initial limited strike on Iran” to force a nuclear deal with Tehran (The Wall Street Journal, The Kobeissi Letter). An Axios report claims Trump was presented with multiple strike plans from the Pentagon, including a strike on Supreme Leader Khamenei, his son, and senior mullahs (Axios).
On February 22, dozens of US Air Force aircraft, mostly tankers, were observed deploying to Europe and the Middle East from the United States (The Geo View).
Comment: The deployment of military forces to certain regions or borders is a key component of deterrence, but the volume of US military assets now in the CENTCOM area of responsibility indicates a growing likelihood of conflict with Iran and the capitulation of diplomacy. The likelihood of this also increased when we take into account the precedent President Trump has established by allowing US forces to carry out Operation Midnight Hammer and, to some degree, Operations Southern Spear and Absolute Resolve in South America.
Nuclear Deal Chances: There have been two official rounds of negotiations between the US and Iran. Despite US demands for Tehran to end its nuclear enrichment program and its long-range ballistic missile program, Iran has rejected the demands, reportedly offering modest concessions (Reuters, OSINT Defender). At one point, Axios reported that President Trump would consider nuclear enrichment if it guaranteed no possibility of Iran developing a nuclear weapon (Axios). As of February 20, Iran has reportedly requested “two weeks to come back with fleshed out proposals for a diplomatic resolution” (The New York Times).
Last Geneva Talks: On February 21, it was reported that talks in Geneva ended with the US accepting Iran’s “red lines” (The Kobeissi Letter). The apparent understanding includes Iran continuing a type of controlled nuclear enrichment and the location and number of centrifuges (The Kobeissi Letter).
Today, February 26, 2026, nuclear talks between the US and Iran will continue in Switzerland (CBS News).
Comment: President Trump, his negotiators, and his administration have remained consistent with rhetoric regarding the Iran situation. In Trump's State of the Union (SOTU) address, he mentioned that significant military intervention is possible without a deal, but that diplomacy will continue (CBS News). This indicates a desire for a diplomatic solution and a peaceful resolution, but, at the same time, will demand Trump “back up" his threats and military posturing in order to retain and increase American soft power.
NATO Launches Various Exercises, Improving Cooperation And Deterring Russia
Summary
NATO has been conducting various exercises and operations to increase joint cooperation. However, the ongoing Arctic Sentry activity is in direct response to Russian military operations in the region.
Findings and Analysis
Quadriga 2026: In February, Germany launched exercise Quadriga 2026 (Bundeswehr). The exercise, which concludes in March, includes more than 10,000 personnel from 11 partner nations (Bundeswehr). The forces are rehearsing rapid troop deployment, logistics, air operations, naval operations, and operational defense plans versus a near-peer adversary. Key components of the exercise are Steadfast Dart, Grand/Northern Quadriga, and Medic Quadriga (USNI News, Military Medicine).
Arctic Sentry: This exercise is a multi-domain military activity intended to improve NATO’s operational capability in the Arctic region (NATO). Originally announced on February 11, the Arctic Sentry mission is ongoing and was launched in response to increased Russian military activity in the High North (NATO). This is the third Arctic Sentry activity since 2025 (USNI News).
The mission/activity mainly focuses on the integration and operational cooperation of NATO air and naval forces, but includes ground force maneuvers.
Comment: The Arctic Sentry series of activities has been a success in countering Russian military activity while improving the collective Arctic capability of NATO. Additionally, Norway is hosting exercise Cold Response from March 9 to 19, 2026, which will help participating forces develop further proficiency in that operating environment (USNI News).
US Cattle Herd Hits 70-Year Low, Raising Long-Term Food Security Concerns
Summary
The USDA reported at the end of January that the American cattle herd has fallen to nearly 85 million head. The herd size is the smallest it has been since 1951, and a significant decrease from the 1975 peak of 132 million. Beef prices have risen nearly 15% year-over-year in 2026, with price decreases not expected until 2028 or later.
Findings and Analysis
Background: The USDA reports that the US cattle herd reached its peak size in 1975 with 132 million head (USDA). The smallest the herd has ever been was in 1951 (USDA). The sustained decline of the herd size has been attributed to environmental pressure, global cattle supply chains, and general shifts in the economy (USDA).
Current Herd and Pricing: The USDA assesses that the US cattle herd is currently around 85 to 86 million head (USDA). The decline (down 15% year-over-year in 2026) has outpaced inflation in other food categories, hitting a record $6.67 per pound (Benzinga, USDA).
In the herd, 27.6 million are beef cows (down 1%), 9.57 million are dairy cows, 32.9 million are calf crop (down 2%), and 13.8 million are cattle on feed (down 3%) (USDA).
Comment: Beef has a production cycle of 18 to 24 months, which means that creating a supply through breeding will take time. Currently, an increase to the herd size that will reduce costs is estimated for 2028 at the earliest, which means more imported beef or continued high costs, or both.
The herd size is one metric for domestic food security, economic resilience, and supply chain stability, and simply suggests a growing area of domestic strategic fragility.
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End Brief
That concludes this brief.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.
Comments represent the analysis, opinions, and estimates of The Intel Brief writer(s).