Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.
Good morning and Happy New Year!
This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief, and the first of 2026! Let’s begin.
Reporting Period: December 29, 2025 - January 1, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On December 29, Chinese media confirmed the commencement of “Justice Mission 2025.” The exercise, which encircled Taiwan, showcased the PLA’s ability to conduct joint operations. Taiwan responded by launching the “Rapid Response Exercise.” The exercise officially concluded on December 31.
2. On December 28, mass protests erupted across Iran after the Rial’s value hit a historic low. As protests have continued to develop, so has the nature of the protests. Multiple reports verify that Iranians are protesting against the ruling cleric class and Supreme Leader Khamenei.
3. On December 31, Russia confirmed the deployment of an Oreshnik missile system to Belarus. The Oreshnik missiles travel at hypersonic speeds and are nuclear-capable. Belarussian President Lukashenko suggested Minsk may host upwards of ten Oreshnik missile systems in the future, which will greatly enhance Russia’s stand-off capability and political coercion.
China Launches Two-Day Military Exercise Around Taiwan, Largest To Date
Summary
On December 29, Chinese media confirmed the commencement of “Justice Mission 2025.” The exercise, which encircled Taiwan, showcased the PLA’s ability to conduct joint operations. Taiwan responded by launching the “Rapid Response Exercise.” The exercise officially concluded on December 31.
Findings
Announcement: On December 29, Chinese state media confirmed the sudden execution of PLA activities around Taiwan (Reuters). The exercise is being dubbed “Justice Mission 2025” and is the largest exercise of its type since the Joint Sword 2024A and Joint Sword 2024B exercises.
Justice Mission 2025: The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command, tasked with the mission to seize Taiwan, launched exercise Justice Mission 2025 with components of the PLA, PLA Air Force, PLA Navy, and PLA Rocket Force (Reuters). The exercise has showcased China’s ability to rehearse joint operations expected during an invasion of Taiwan, including naval strikes, blockades, air strikes, command and control, amphibious assault, ISR, and space operations (Global Times). Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reports that 27 PLA rockets landed within Taiwan’s nautical zone (Focus Taiwan). Between December 30 and 31, Taiwan’s MND reported 207 aircraft sorties and 47 naval incursions or patrols in or around Taiwanese territory (ROC MND, ROC MND).
On December 31, China’s Eastern Theater Command announced the conclusion of Justice Mission 2025 (PBS).
Taiwan Response: On December 29, shortly after Justice Mission 2025 began, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense announced that “Rapid Response Exercise” had commenced in response to the Chinese activity (MND ROC). Included in the response are Taiwan’s air defense, anti-ship, coastal defense, and naval forces (MND ROC). The entire Taiwanese military remains on high alert (MND ROC).
Why This Matters
The Justice Mission 2025 exercise is another step in the perpetual deterioration of the Cross Strait relationship, and a step closer to China’s promised invasion of the island by 2027.
The exercise was an opportunity, on a strategic level, for China to progress its reunification narrative. From an operational and tactical perspective, the exercise was an opportunity for PLA personnel to rehearse schemes of maneuver and refine competencies related to their respective mission sets.
If Justice Mission will mimic the Joint Sword exercises from 2024, then it is likely there will be a similar iteration in the following months.
Large-Scale Protests Continue In Iran, Threaten Regime
Summary
On December 28, mass protests erupted across Iran after the Rial’s value hit a historic low. As protests have continued to develop, so has the nature of the protests. Multiple reports verify that Iranians are protesting against the ruling cleric class and Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Findings
Protests: On December 28, following the Rial’s crash, merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar organized a strike that has since grown into large-scale protests nationwide (BBC). BBC reports that demonstrations have been verified in Karaj, Hamedan, Qeshm, Malard, Isfahan, Kermanshah, Shiraz, and Yazd (BBC). Demonstrations against Iran’s ruling clerics and Supreme Leader Khamenei have been observed (BBC, NBC News).
Iran’s Response: President Pezeshkin took to X to reconcile with protestors. In his statement, Pezeshkian stated that “the livelihood of the people is my daily concern” and that reform to the monetary and banking system will be made to “preserve the purchasing power of the people” (X). Pezeshkian tasked representatives to “hear the legitimate demands of the protestors through dialogue with their representatives” (X).
Pezeshkian accepted the resignation of Mohammadreza Farzin, the governor of Iran’s central bank (BBC).Iranian authorities confirmed that a shutdown of services and infrastructure would continue in order to maintain an energy supply during winter (NBC News).
U.S. Response: On December 29, President Trump voiced his general support for the protests and commented on the poor economic state in Iran (Fox News). On December 30, Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. During a meeting with press, Trump stated he would support renewed strikes on Iran (The New York Times).
Why This Matters
These are some of the largest protests in Iran since the revolution of 1979. And just like the 1979 revolution, if these protests continue, they could lead to the overthrow of the ruling regime.
It is uncertain what role the U.S. or Israel may take if there is an opportunity to escalate protests and pressure formal regime change. The longer Iran’s economic troubles persist, the more likely protests and political change are.
Russia Declares Oreshnik Missiles Operational, Deployed To Belarus
Summary
On December 31, Russia confirmed the deployment of an Oreshnik missile system to Belarus. The Oreshnik missiles travel at hypersonic speeds and are nuclear-capable. Belarussian President Lukashenko suggested Minsk may host upwards of ten Oreshnik missile systems in the future, which will greatly enhance Russia’s stand-off capability and political coercion.
Findings
Statement: On December 31, Russia’s Ministry of Defense published images of the Oreshnik missile launch system on Telegram (The Moscow Times, Telegram). In the post, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that a ceremony was held “marking the entry into combat duty of a unit equipped with the Oreshnik mobile ground-based missile system,” implying the system is Fully Operational Capable (FOC) (Telegram).
Oreshnik Missile: Russian propaganda has described the nuclear-capable, hypersonic missile as “impossible to intercept” (see below Tweet) (X). AP News reports the Oreshnik missile can travel at Mach 10 and engage targets up to 3,400 miles away (AP News).
The Oreshnik has one combat use: a November 21, 2024, strike on Dnipro, Ukraine, which has been assessed as an act of nuclear intimidation (AP News).
Belarus Deployment: The December 31 Telegram post confirms that the Oreshnik missile system has been deployed to Belarus (ABC News, Telegram). Russia’s Ministry of Defense confirms that operators were trained on the system following the deployment ceremony (Telegram).
Belarussian President Lukashenko stated that up to 10 Oreshnik missile systems could be deployed to Belarus (Euro News).
Risk: There are concerns that given the deteriorating Russo-European relationship, and the Oreshnik missile’s capabilities, the system could be employed against European centers or NATO targets (Express). Despite continued threats and hostile rhetoric from Russia, some European states (such as Estonia) suggest there are “no signs” of an immediate Russian attack on NATO (Stars and Stripes). The general consensus is to support rearmament to prepare for a future conflict (The Economist).
Why This Matters
The deployment of the Oreshnik missile system (with more allegedly on the way) to Belarus represents an escalation by Moscow. The deployment and threat of strikes is intended as a message to Europe; to deter the West from interfering in affairs that are ongoing in what Russia perceives as its sphere of influence.
It is possible that Russia could use the deployment of Oreshnik missiles to coerce peace conditions in Ukraine, or future European and NATO policy involving Russia. In other words, Russia could offer to remove or reduce Oreshniks in Belarus to compel policies or decisions that the Kremlin favors, even temporarily.
End Brief
That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!
Cheers to a great year in 2026!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.