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This is the Thursday edition of The Intel Brief. This brief is shorter than usual due to the holiday. Enjoy!
Reporting Period: December 22-25, 2025
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. Recent statements by Moscow suggest a peace deal with Ukraine is still distant. Some comments suggest progress is being made on “root causes,” but significant disagreements regarding territory remain.
2. On December 18, the U.S. Marine Corps issued an RFI to procure small drones. The desired platform will be augmentable and will support fires and ISR missions. The Marine Corps is looking to procure over 10,000 units.
3. On December 23, President Zelenskyy presented a revised peace plan to reporters. Zelenskyy, who reached an agreement with American officials, later sent the proposal to Moscow for review. The plan is likely to undergo further revision and be used for a future ceasefire and finalized peace summit.
Russia Issues Contradictory Rhetoric On Peace In Ukraine
Summary
Recent statements by Moscow suggest a peace deal with Ukraine is still distant. Some comments suggest progress is being made on “root causes,” but significant disagreements regarding territory remain.
Findings
Positive Rhetoric: On December 20, Russian envoy Dimitriev met with U.S. envoy Witkoff in Florida (Fox News). Following the meeting, Dimitriev told reporters that “discussions are proceeding constructively” (Fox News). President Putin remains confident that Russian interests will be achieved either militarily or diplomatically, claiming Russian troops are still advancing in Ukraine, and that battlefield conditions favor Moscow’s ability to make demands (Fox News).
Negative Rhetoric: On December 21, Kremlin aide Ushakov told the TASS news agency that Russia is “not seriously considering a potential three-way meeting” of U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian diplomats (United24 Media, The New York Times). Ushakov also echoed Kremlin rhetoric rejecting European considerations, stating European proposals “do not improve the documents and do not improve the chances of achieving a long-term peace” (United24 Media).
Why This Matters
Russia’s contradictory messaging reflects a classic coercive diplomacy strategy designed to divide Western partners, delay unified action, and preserve battlefield leverage. By engaging U.S. envoys while dismissing European initiatives, Moscow seeks to weaken transatlantic cohesion and reframe negotiations as a bilateral U.S.–Russia issue, marginalizing Ukraine and Europe in the process.
Putin’s confidence that Russian objectives can be achieved militarily or diplomatically indicates the Kremlin does not view current talks as concessions, but as a means to extract legitimacy for gains achieved through force. This posture signals that Russia is unlikely to accept any settlement that does not lock in territorial acquisitions, security concessions from NATO, or long-term limits on Ukraine’s military capacity.
U.S. Marine Corps Issues RFI For FPV Drones
Summary
On December 18, the U.S. Marine Corps issued an RFI to procure small drones. The desired platform will be augmentable and will support fires and ISR missions. The Marine Corps is looking to procure over 10,000 units.
Findings
SAM RFI: On December 18, the U.S. government’s System for Award Management (SAM) issued a Request for Information (RFI) regarding the procurement of Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS) (SAM, The Warzone).
Details: The RFI is seeking commercially available drones with First-Person View (FPV) capabilities (SAM). The Marine Corps is looking to procure “thousands” of drones that are “low-cost, high volume” and have an “emphasis on rapid reconfigurability and modular payload capabilities” (SAM).
The Marine Corps is seeking an sUAS platform (including controllers, communications equipment, goggles, batteries, chargers, and required components) for less than $4,000 per unit (SAM). The system must be compatible with the Android Tactical Assault Kit (ATAK) (SAM).Role: The ideal sUAS platform will support a Reconnaissance, Surveillance, and Target Acquisition (RTSA) mission set, with a secondary role of communications relay (SAM).
Delivery: The Marine Corps wants to procure 10,000 units within 12 months of product selection (SAM).
Potential Vendor: Recently, Neros Technologies participated in the Marine Corps Attack Drone Competition in Okinawa, Japan, and was awarded a $17 million contract to provide 8,000 drones (The Warzone).
The Neros Archer is a leading candidate for the Marine Corps.
Why This Matters
By prioritizing low-cost, high-volume, and rapid reconfigurability, the Marine Corps is explicitly preparing for high-intensity conflict where attrition, electronic warfare, and rapid adaptation are dominant requirements. The emphasis on FPV, ATAK integration, and rapid delivery timelines indicates the Marine Corps is moving to close the gap between commercial innovation cycles and military acquisition, bypassing traditional, slower procurement pathways.
Strategically, this effort enhances Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR) and expeditionary fires by improving real-time situational awareness, target acquisition, and target solutions in contested environments. The ability to field 10,000 drones within a year would give small units persistent ISR and communications resilience at a fraction of the cost of legacy systems.
Zelenskyy Reveals Revised 20-Point Peace Plan
Summary
On December 23, President Zelenskyy presented a revised peace plan to reporters. Zelenskyy, who reached an agreement with American officials, later sent the proposal to Moscow for review. The plan is likely to undergo further revision and be used for a future ceasefire and finalized peace summit.
Findings
Announcement: On December 23, President Zelenskyy presented a revised peace plan based on 20 points, down from the original 28 (Kyiv Independent). Zelenskyy reportedly sent the 20-point plan to Moscow on December 24 (Kyiv Independent, DW).
Specific details of the plan were not released to reporters during Zelenskyy’s announcement, and questions of territorial occupation remain.
Details: Visegrad 24 reported some alleged details of the 20-point peace plan: Recognition of Ukrainian sovereignty, a Russo-Ukrainian non-aggression pact, NATO-like security guarantees, an 800,000-personnel cap for Ukraine’s military, Ukrainian EU accession, formation of a global development package, formation of a Ukraine reconstruction plan, free trade agreement between Washington and Kyiv, and restrictions on Ukrainian nuclearization (including trilateral management of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant) (Visegrad 24).
Security Guarantees: In addition to the 20-point peace proposal, a three-party security guarantees draft is being finalized between the U.S., Ukraine, and the European Union (Kyiv Independent). The U.S. and Ukraine are revising bilateral security guarantees and an economic “roadmap for Ukraine’s prosperity” (Kyiv Independent).
Why This Matters
It is unlikely Russia will support Ukraine’s revised peace plan without Moscow making revisions of its own. However, any final document must be signed by leaders of Ukraine, the United States, the European Union, and Russia, with ratification required in each respective parliament (or Congress) for it to become law.
It is increasingly likely that a meeting between U.S., Russian, and Ukrainian diplomats will occur before 2026.
End Brief
That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!
Merry Christmas!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.