Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. The content below will get you up to speed on some critical geopolitical updates from this week.

Reporting Period: 5-8 May 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Merz Confirmed As German Chancellor In Second Round Of Voting, Averts Political Crisis

Summary
On 6 May, the German Bundestag voted to confirm election-winning Friedrich Merz as the next Chancellor. Merz failed to be elected in the first round. Reportedly, 307 lawmakers voted against Merz, while 9 did not vote and 3 abstained. The Bundestag conducted a second vote on Tuesday afternoon, leading to Merz’s appointment.

Findings

• First Round Vote: On Tuesday, 6 May, the German Bundestag conducted a first round vote to confirm Merz as Chancellor in an anonymous vote. Germany’s president stated that 307 lawmakers voted against Merz’s confirmation, with 9 no-votes and 3 abstentions.
  Merz is the first post-war candidate to fail to secure the chancellorship in the first round of voting.

• Second Round Vote: The second round of voting, which many thought wouldn’t be needed, was scheduled for 7 May. The Bundestag quickly organized second round voting for 6 May.
  In that round, Merz secured 325 votes — with a slim majority of 9 — despite having a coalition of 328 members.
  Merz was sworn in as chancellor by President Steinmeier shortly after.

• France and Poland: After securing the chancellorship in the second round of voting, Merz stuck with his original plan to visit France and Poland on 7 May. Merz used the opportunity to declare Germany’s return to the world stage and as a dominant power in Europe.

Why This Matters
Chancellor Merz and his CDU/CSU-SPD coalition government are very likely to face challenges in governance during their tenure.

Due To:

• AfD popularity and it having the second-largest independent presence in the Bundestag.

• AfD classification by the BfV as right-wing extremist, possibly leading to protests, riots, and political violence.

• An apparent lack of support for Merz in the new CDU/CSU-SPD coalition.

  • Merz being the first chancellor in post-war Germany to fail their initial confirmation vote.

• Merz coalition having vague priorities for German issues.

• Merz coalition lacking unity of dealing with German issues.

  • Declining economy, growing unemployment, aging population, housing crisis.

  • Lack of domestic energy and previous dependence on Russian gas.

  • Mass-migration and extremist terrorism by migrants.

  • Anti-migrant violence by far-right and far-left agitators.

  • Germany’s weak and dated military.

  • Russia’s increasing hybrid warfare campaign in NATO territories.

  • Growing need for financial and military support for Ukraine.

  • Growing defense costs for ReArm Europe plan and NATO.

• Growing uncertainties with the U.S. diplomatic, military, and economic relationship.

Sources: Reuters, CNN, BBC

India Launches Strikes On Pakistan, Occupied Kashmir

Summary
Early on 7 May, India conducted precision strikes against sites in Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoK). The strikes are reportedly a direct response to the 22 April Pahalgam terrorist attack conducted by The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of the Islamist Lashkar-e-Taiba. Pakistan stated it shot down at least 5 Indian aircraft during its strike package, increasing the likelihood of formal war.

Findings

• Background: On 22 April, 5 Islamist gunmen opened fire on Hindus visiting Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. In total, 26 people were killed. The Hindu reports the incident was the deadliest attack on civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. The attack significantly increased political, economic, and military tensions between India and Pakistan, which included the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and Simla Agreement, the closure of Pakistani airspace, small arms skirmishes at border regions, missile launches, and military mobilizations.

• Operation Sindoor: In response to the Pahalgam attack and increased tensions, India launched Operation Sindoor on 7 May. The operation included 9 strikes on Pakistani terrorist targets, both on Pakistani and contested soil.
  India said no Pakistani facilities, bases, or personnel were targeted, and that the strikes were “measured, not escalatory, proportionate and responsible.”

• Pakistani Response: Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif released a statement claiming that Indian aircraft did violate Pakistani airspace, and that its forces shot down 5 aircraft, including 3 European-made Rafale’s.
  A Pakistani general stated that Indian aircraft were shot down only after they attacked targets within Pakistan and “only after they released their weapons.”
  PM Sharif has vowed to retaliate.
  (Below: Pakistan’s statement via X)

Why This Matters
The escalation between India and Pakistan following the 7 May strikes marks the gravest crisis between the two nuclear-armed rivals in years, threatening regional stability across South Asia. Unlike past cross-border skirmishes, this operation follows the deadliest terrorist attack on Indian civilians since 2008, heightening nationalist pressures within India and constraining diplomatic off-ramps.

If Pakistan’s claims of downing Indian aircraft are accurate, the conflict risks rapid escalation towards formal war. The suspension of key agreements like the Indus Waters Treaty removes critical communication and de-escalation mechanisms, while the involvement of Islamist proxies increases the risk of continued irregular warfare and cross-border insurgency.

For U.S. and allied policymakers, this escalation threatens to draw in global actors, destabilize key supply chains, and undermine focus on other great power flashpoints. For military analysts, tracking force postures, missile deployments, and airspace activity will be essential for assessing the conflict’s trajectory and the potential need for crisis intervention or containment efforts.

Sources: The Guardian, CNN, Reuters, NPR, The Guardian

EU Publishes Roadmap To Cut Dependence On Russian Energy

Summary
On 6 May, the European Commission published a formal roadmap to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas imports. The goal is to cease all imports of Russian gas imports 2027, and to reduce oil and nuclear imports indefinitely. The roadmap also proposed methods for expanding and diversifying Europe’s energy supplies and sources.

Findings

• REPowerEU: The roadmap (originally conceived in 2022) has been designated as “REPowerEU,” and will be further developed alongside the EU’s Competitiveness Compass, Clean Industrial Deal, and the Affordable Energy Action Plan — all parts of the EU Commission’s economic plan for the transnational organization.

• Next Steps: The EU Commission will need to gather support for the proposed roadmap, but may face pushback from EU members who depend on Russia’s cheap energy, such as Germany, Slovakia, and Hungary.
  The Commission will present a legislation proposal for the roadmap in June 2025.

• Goals: The roadmap proposes three categories for measures that will assist with its energy transition:

  • Gas: The commission proposes that all Russian gas imports will cease by 2027. The EU also seeks to stop new contracts with suppliers of Russian gas by the end of 2025.

  • Oil: The Commission proposes taking “fresh” action to Russia’s oil shadow fleet which has allowed Moscow to bypass some international sanctions. This could include new sanctions, seizures of shadow fleet ships, or blockades.

  • Nuclear: The Commission proposes suspending contracts for Russian uranium, enriched uranium, and other nuclear material.

Why This Matters
The EU’s roadmap to fully end dependence on Russian energy represents a decisive strategic shift with major geopolitical and economic implications. By targeting gas, oil, and nuclear imports, the EU is aiming to sever one of Moscow’s most powerful sources of leverage over Europe, particularly as Russia continues aggressive actions in Ukraine and beyond.

However, Brussels will face three major challenges if it is going to get the legislation approved and implemented successfully:

1. Brussels will need to secure support across the EU to get the roadmap approved, a challenge that Ursula von der Leyen and her Commission are very likely to struggle with.

2. The EU will need to establish reliable and cost-effective alternatives to meet energy demands in Europe. This means von der Leyen and her team will likely have to pursue Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) imports with the U.S. and Qatar, with the U.S. piece being dependent on establishing a mutually beneficial trade deal with President Trump.

3. Russia is very likely to view the REPowerEU Roadmap as a threat to its highly profitable energy export industry. As a result, Russia may increase its hybrid warfare operations within the EU in addition to expanding its shadow fleet operations.

The bottom line is that the REPowerEU Roadmap has a lot of sentimental and rhetorical support in Europe, but will likely face difficulties in getting it passed and implemented.

Sources: EU Commission, Reuters

U.S. Marine Corps Unveils ExDECS Anti-Drone System

Summary
At the annual Modern Day Marine conference in Washington, the United States Marine Corps announced it was being delivered the Expeditionary Directed Energy Counter-Swarm (ExDECS) weapon. The system is designed by Epirus and will supplement the USMC’s current Low-Altitude Air Defense (LAAD) capabilities.

Findings

• Leonidas System Overview: Developed by Epirus, the ExDECS is a modified version of the Leonidas system, which emits powerful microwave pulses to disrupt or destroy the electronics of drones, effectively downing entire swarms without kinetic munitions. Unlike traditional missile or gun-based defenses, Leonidas offers scalable, repeatable effects at a much lower per-shot cost.

• Operational Deployment: According to USMC statements, Leonidas has been fielded with forward-deployed Marine units to counter increasingly common drone threats, especially from peer and near-peer adversaries. The system has been integrated into Marine Air Defense Integrated Systems (MADIS), enhancing the Corps’ layered defense architecture.

• Technology Advantages: Leonidas’ software-defined architecture allows real-time targeting updates and rapid adaptation to different drone types and swarm formations. Its broad-area electromagnetic pulses can engage multiple targets simultaneously, addressing the limits of conventional point-defense systems.

• Strategic Implications: The deployment reflects the Marine Corps’ commitment to modernization under Force Design 2030, which prioritizes distributed operations, advanced sensing, and resilient air defense. The technology also positions the Corps as a leading service in experimenting with directed energy applications alongside the Army and Navy.

Why This Matters
The Marine Corps’ fielding of ExDECS marks a critical evolution in how U.S. forces confront drone threats, which have emerged as inexpensive but deadly tools in both state and non-state arsenals. By investing in directed energy, the USMC gains a cost-effective and scalable defense against drone swarms that could overwhelm traditional systems.

However, the development of the ExDECS platform does not mean the Marine Corps has a perfect solution for small UAS swarms on the battlefield. A recent article by yahoo!news suggests the Marine Corps is still trying to identify, track, and engage hostile drones and swarms in an environment that includes friendly platforms.

This is the core to all aviation command and control (C2) operations, so without a meaningful solution for ID’ing and tracking hostile targets, the ExDECS may not reach its full potential anytime soon.

Sources: TWZ, Epirus, yahoo!news

End Brief

Thank you for reading. That concludes today’s briefing.

See you Sunday,

Nick