Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. This time, we are covering events from this past weekend as well as this week.

Reporting Period: 5-11 September 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Charlie Kirk Assassinated At Utah Valley University

On 10 September, Charlie Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA, was assassinated while speaking at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah (Fox News). He was 31 and is survived by his wife and two children.

Global Political Instability: Governments Collapse In France, Japan, Nepal

Summary
This week, myriad political crises have highlighted global political instability. In France, Prime Minister Bayrou resigned. In Japan, Prime Minister Ishiba stepped down after his party’s electoral defeat. In Nepal, violent protests over corruption and a social media ban forced Prime Minister Oli to resign and flee the capital, leaving dozens dead and hundreds injured. While these events are not directly connected, together they underscore a broader global trend of political instability and weakened executive authority.

Findings

• France: On 9 September, French Prime Minister Bayrou resigned after failing a confidence vote in France’s parliament on Monday (AP News). 364 members of parliament voted against Bayrou, with 194 supporting him (CNN). President Macron is set to appoint a new prime minister despite both far-left and far-right parties committing to another vote of no confidence if an incompetent centrist is chosen (CNN). National Rally party leaders have called for the dissolution of parliament and snap elections (CNN). President Macron has ruled out resigning despite a 15% approval rating and constant economic crisis, and presidential elections are not until 2027 (AP News).

• Japan: On 7 September, Prime Minister Ishiba confirmed he will resign following the Liberal Democratic Party’s defeat in July 2025 parliamentary elections (BBC). Ishiba had initially resisted resigning as prime minister in order to make progress on trade negotiations with the United States (AP News). Ishiba resigned before a no-confidence vote was coordinated, making him the third Japanese prime minister in 5 years (BBC).

• Nepal: On 9 September, massive protests erupted in Kathmandu, Nepal, due to a social media ban and ongoing corruption (NPR). The “Gen-Z” protestors set fire to the Supreme Court, parliament, and the prime minister’s residence (NPR). Prime Minister Oli resigned from office and reportedly fled Kathmandu (CNN). As of 10 September, more than 1,000 people were injured and 30 have been killed during the protests (Indian Express).

Why This Matters
The near-simultaneous collapses of governments in France, Japan, and Nepal highlight the fragility of political systems under economic stress, populist pressures, and public distrust. For Washington, the implications vary: instability in France threatens cohesion within the EU at a critical time for European security, while Japan’s revolving leadership complicates long-term coordination with the U.S. on Indo-Pacific strategy. Nepal’s violent unrest, though more localized, risks creating a governance vacuum in a region where both China and India vie for influence.

More broadly, these crises reflect a global erosion of confidence in political elites and institutions, raising the likelihood of populist surges, unpredictable policy shifts, and challenges to democratic governance.

U.S., Venezuela Inch Closer To War

Summary
The United States and Venezuela have moved closer to war following a U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean. A recent U.S. precision strike on a cartel vessel, Venezuelan fighter jet incursions over U.S. naval assets, and a growing American force posture in Puerto Rico are increasing the likelihood of conflict. Venezuela has responded with large-scale mobilizations, raising the risk that limited counter-cartel operations could escalate to war.

Findings

• Background: On 29 August, the U.S. Navy deployed at least seven warships to the Caribbean near Venezuela. The deployment includes guided-missile destroyers, at least one submarine, and roughly 5,000 personnel, including U.S. Marines (The Intel Brief). The deployment is officially framed as an operation to support counter-narcotics operations in South America, which includes cartels linked to the Maduro regime in Venezuela. President Maduro responded by mobilizing more than four million militia members and deploying 15,000 conventional troops, armored vehicles, artillery, and naval assets. The Caribbean deployment was preceded by the United States increasing the bounty on President Maduro to $50 million (The Intel Brief).

• U.S. Precision Strike on Cartel Boat: On 2 September, President Trump announced that the United States had carried out a precision strike on a “drug boat” in the Caribbean Sea (CNN). Trump stated he gave the order for U.S. assets to strike the vessel, believed to be operated by Tren de Aragua cartel members. The strike reportedly killed 11 cartel members (BBC).

• Venezuelan Aircraft Incursion: On 3 and 4 September, Venezuelan fighter jets (including American-made F-16s) flew over American naval assets, including the USS Jason Dunham (CBS News). Likely considered an incursion into the fleet’s personal prohibited airspace or air exclusion zone (AEZ), President Trump stated on 7 September that future fly-bys and incursions would be considered threats, and that Venezuelan aircraft would be shot down (BBC).

• Build Up in Puerto Rico: On 3 September, the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) announced it was conducting military training in Puerto Rico alongside the National Guard (II MEF). NBC News states that the joint exercises had been underway since 31 August (NBC). On 5 September, the U.S. deployed 10 F-35 fighter jets to Puerto Rico to support the ongoing U.S. Navy deployment and improve the force posture (CBS News).
  On 8 September, Secretary of War Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine landed in Puerto Rico. They were welcomed by Governor Gonzalez (El Nuevo Dia).

• Future Strikes: When asked by reporters if he would order strikes on cartel members inside of Venezuela, President Trump stated, “Well, you’re going to find out.”

Why This Matters
Washington’s naval buildup and deployment of advanced platforms like F-35s signal a readiness to escalate beyond interdiction, while Caracas’ mobilization of both regular forces and militias reflects its intent to frame the crisis as national defense against U.S. aggression. Any miscalculation—such as a Venezuelan jet straying too close to U.S. warships—could trigger a clash that destabilizes the Caribbean and forces Washington into a conflict it has not formally declared. Beyond regional stability, the standoff risks drawing in external actors: Russia and Iran have historically supported Maduro, and could exploit a U.S. conflict in the Western Hemisphere to dilute American focus on Europe or the Indo-Pacific.

However, Venezuela appears intent on de-escalating despite Maduro’s strongman rhetoric. Venezuelan military officials posted a briefing from an undisclosed location, suggesting that Venezuelan forces are conducting counter-cartel operations—a bid to delegitimize the U.S. presence in the region and suggest common security interests.

Previous mainstream media assessments suggest the U.S. posture is not sufficient for an invasion of Venezuela, indicating that counter-narcotics operations are the primary focus, with provocation as a secondary focus.

Israeli Strike Targets Hamas Leadership In Qatar

Summary
On 9 September, Israel launched Operation Summit of Fire, targeting Hamas leadership convened to discuss a U.S.-backed ceasefire deal. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced the operation as a unilateral action, distancing Washington from involvement after the White House confirmed it was only notified, not consulted. Hamas claimed its senior figures survived. The strike immediately triggered diplomatic fallout: U.S. officials engaged in emergency calls with Qatar, while the European Union moved toward suspending financial payments to Israel amid intensifying criticism of its Gaza campaign.

Findings

• Netanyahu’s Announcement: On 9 September, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that a “surgical, precision strike” was conducted on Hamas’ leadership in Doha, Qatar.

• Strike in Qatar: On 9 September, Israel conducted “Operation Summit of Fire,” against Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar (The Times of Israel). Israel conducted the strikes due to Hamas leaders convening to discuss a U.S.-backed ceasefire deal (X).

  Hamas reportedly released a statement claiming that “its top leaders survived the assassination attempt” (Al Jazeera).

• U.S. Involvement: White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated that the United States did not play a role in Israel’s strike in Doha, and that the U.S. military notified Trump that Israel was conducting the attack (The White House). President Trump, Secretary Rubio, and Special Envoy Witkoff held an emergency phone call with Qatari leaders and officials.
  Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel acted independently, confirming Leavitt’s announcement that the strikes were “unilateral” and outside of American interests (X).

• EU Response: On 10 September, European Commission President von der Leyen confirmed that the EU is preparing to suspend all financial payments to Israel due to its ongoing operations in the Gaza Strip (Euronews). It is very likely that the strike in Qatar, as well as the growing support for Palestine’s sovereignty at the ongoing UN General Assembly, influenced this decision.

Why This Matters
Israel’s decision to strike Hamas leadership in Qatar signals a dangerous expansion of its various regional conflicts. Targeting Hamas on Qatari soil threatens to fracture relations with Doha, a critical mediator in hostage negotiations and U.S. basing operations, while also straining Israel’s ties with Washington, which has sought to balance military support with diplomatic restraint. This is particularly relevant given the ongoing UN General Assembly, where Palestinian sovereignty is a major agenda item, and when Israel’s global reputation is plummeting.

The EU’s threat to suspend financial payments reflects mounting international backlash that could deepen Israel’s isolation and complicate U.S. and European coordination in the Middle East. For U.S. national security, the incident underscores the challenge of managing an ally willing to act unilaterally in ways that risk regional escalation, undermine ceasefire diplomacy, and embolden adversaries such as Iran to exploit divisions among Western partners.

Poland Invokes NATO Article 4 After Russian Drone Incursions

Summary
On 10 September, Polish Prime Minister Tusk confirmed that Russian drones entered Polish airspace. After Polish and NATO assets detected, identified, and tracked the drones, at least three were shot down. In response, Poland formally invoked NATO’s Article 4, calling for an emergency consultation between members.

Findings

• Russian Drone Incursion: Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Sikorski confirmed that Russian drones deliberately violated Polish airspace “19 times” (USA Today, Newsweek). Sikorski confirmed that some of the drones were tracked and shot down by the Polish Air Force and Dutch, Italian, and German partners (The Atlantic Council).

• Invoking NATO Article 4: The Polish government invoked NATO Article 4, which provides for member states to convene for emergency joint consultations in the event of a crisis (The Atlantic Council, PBS). Historically, Article 4 has been invoked sparingly, with the most recent case being the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (PBS).

Why This Matters
While Poland’s leaders and high-level officials stated there is no evidence to suggest an imminent conflict with Russia, the deliberate incursion and Article 4 invocation suggest a few things:

• There is a growing risk of conflict from miscalculated responses to hybrid warfare (put another way, there are more opportunities for flashpoints—orchestrated confrontations).

• Putin is deliberately undermining Western efforts to support Ukraine and reach a peace deal.

• Putin and Russia may continue similar tactics to test the “Coalition of the Willing” as Europe finalizes plans to provide Ukraine security guarantees.

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for sticking around and reading through it.
— Nick