Good morning,

This is the premium edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s look at some key updates from the week so far.

Reporting Period: 28-31 July 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

President Trump Demands Russia Reach Ceasefire In Ukraine, Shortens 50-Day Ultimatum

Summary
On 28 July, during a meeting with UK Prime Minister Starmer, President Trump announced that he would “reduce” his ultimatum for President Putin to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine. Instead of giving Russia 50 days to negotiate a ceasefire, Trump has demanded a deal within 10 days as of 29 July. Russia has expressed frustration with the decision.

Findings

• President Trump’s Remarks: Speaking to reporters, Trump stated his disappointment with President Putin, suggesting he and Kremlin officials used previous negotiations for diplomatic favor while simultaneously launching missile and drone strikes across Ukraine. Trump originally stated that if Russia did not reach a ceasefire within the allotted timeframe, Russia would experience increased sanctions and tariffs.

  On 29 July, Trump stated Russia has “ten days from today” to reach a ceasefire with Ukraine.

• Ukrainian Remarks: President Zelenskyy took to social media to thank Trump for his decision to pressure a peace deal.

• Russian Reaction: Initial reporting via Russia’s Interfax news agency suggests Russian officials are dissatisfied with Trump’s new ultimatum. Press Secretary Peskov stated that Russia has “taken note of President Trump’s statements,” and that while Russia is “committed to a peace process,” it will continue to prosecute the war to secure the Kremlin’s “interests” in Ukraine.
  Peskov further suggested that talks have slowed because Ukrainian interest or “momentum” is absent from negotiations.

Why This Matters
President Trump's abrupt reduction of the ceasefire ultimatum to Russia introduces a new, highly compressed timeline for the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, creating immediate pressure on Moscow to reach a deal and avoid economic repercussions. It is very likely that Trump implemented this change knowing that a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire would not be reached in time.

While new sanctions and tariffs are very likely to restrict Russia’s energy-based revenue streams, it is also a test of the Trump administration’s diplomatic credibility.

Russia's immediate dissatisfaction and reaffirmation of its commitment to prosecuting the war to secure its "interests" suggest that a genuine ceasefire within the 10-day window is unlikely without significant concessions from either side, or a sudden shift on the battlefield. The Kremlin's insinuation that Ukrainian "momentum" is absent from negotiations also appears to be an obfuscation to shift blame for the lack of progress and to justify its continued offensive operations.

Finally, the accelerated timeline and pressure of economic disruption likely mean intensified operations on the battlefield, particularly by Russia, which has rapidly expanded its missile and drone strike capabilities.

Sources: Yahoo, BBC, Interfax

Israel Proposes Plans To Occupy Gaza As “New York Declaration” Announced

Summary
On 29 July, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly presented a plan to his administration to annex and occupy Gaza. The decision has drawn criticism, even from Israeli allies, to the point that some Western nations are committing to recognizing Palestinian sovereignty and advocating for a two-state solution under the “New York Declaration.” The recognition of Palestinian sovereignty is very likely to be a debate or voting item at the 80th UN General Assembly in September.

Findings

• Netanyahu’s Plan to Occupy Gaza: On 29 July, Anadolu Ajansi and Chinese state-media Xinhua reported that Netanyahu has presented a plan to annex and occupy Gaza. Both reports claim the annexation of Gaza will occur if Hamas rejects a ceasefire deal. Anadolu Ajansi claims the deal is to appease Finance Minister Smotrich, who has threatened to resign from Netanyahu’s government.

  • Israeli Opposition: CNN reported that for the first time, two Israeli human rights groups have accused the Israeli government of genocide in Gaza.
    B’Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights Israel (PHRI) declared Israel’s policy in Gaza inhumane and genocidal, and called for the cessation of hostilities and for the IDF to allow humanitarian aid into the region.
    The Israeli government rejected the reports and statements, and stated that humanitarian aid regularly enters the Gaza Strip.

• French Recognition of Gaza: On 24 July, President Macron announced that France would recognize Palestinian sovereignty at the 80th UN General Assembly (UNGA) in September.
  Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu “strongly condemned” Macron’s decision.

• New York Declaration: On 29 July, high-level officials at a UN Conference urged Israel to support a two-state solution. The movement is being dubbed the “New York Declaration,” and includes the dissolution of Hamas and the establishment of a Palestinian Authority government in Gaza.
  CNN reports that the 22-member Arab League, the European Union, and 17 other countries support the declaration.

  • UK Statements: On 29 July, UK Prime Minister Starmer stated that unless Israel reaches a ceasefire in Gaza and commits to ending the humanitarian crisis there, London will recognize Palestine as a sovereign state at the upcoming UNGA.

  • Canadian Statements: On 30 July, Canadian Prime Minister Carney stated Canada will recognize Palestinian sovereignty at the UNGA in September.

  • U.S. Position: The Department of State issued a statement rejecting the two-state solution proposed in the UN. Secretary of State Rubio specifically denounced President Macron’s initial decision to recognize Palestine, and called it a “counterproductive gesture that only emboldens Hamas.”

Why This Matters
Netanyahu’s reported plan to annex and occupy Gaza poses risks to establishing a ceasefire and a long-term peace plan for the region. It also appears to be rapidly reshaping Israel’s diplomatic relationships with Western partners, most notably France, Germany, and the UK. It also appears to be leading to greater hesitancy within the U.S. and the Trump administration.

The emerging support for the Palestinian Authority to take up governance of Gaza and a Palestinian state is also a shock, especially coming from the Arab League. Some Middle Eastern states that support the declaration, like Qatar and Egypt, have been diplomatic and economic supporters of Hamas’s political wing, itself the formal leadership hierarchy of the entire organization. The Palestinian Authority was the Palestinian government before Hamas took over, but remained a claimant in exile.

However, because Israel is unlikely to accept a two-state solution, it is uncertain what will come of the upcoming UNGA session, if a ceasefire will be reached in Gaza, or if the conflict’s intensity will ebb and flow as Hamas recovers support from Iran and regional partners.

Sources: POLITICO, CNN, AP News, CNN, Department of State, Anadolu Ajansı, Xinhua, France24, AP News

Poland Detains 32 Saboteurs, Convicts One

Summary
On 29 July, Polish Prime Minister Tusk announced that Poland’s Internal Security Agency (ASW) has detained 32 individuals suspected of conducting sabotage operations for Russia. The group includes Poles, Russians, Ukrainians, Belarusians, and South Americans. One 27-year-old Colombian man was convicted of sabotage related to two arson attacks in May 2024.

Findings

• Announcement: Tusk announced that the 32 individuals of varying nationalities were detained and stand accused of arson, assaults, intimidation, and other acts aimed at destabilizing Poland.
  Tusk stated the list is not exhaustive, implying there are more suspects under ASW surveillance.

• Key Case: The case making headlines is of a 27-year-old Colombian male. He was charged in Czechia and deported to Poland to face charges. He stands accused of two arson attacks on warehouses in Warsaw and Radom in May 2024. Poland’s ABW determined the individual was recruited and trained by Russian intelligence handlers, along with an unidentified number of South Americans with military experience.

Why This Matters
This incident shows Russia's persistent hybrid warfare tactics against NATO and European Union member states. The involvement of diverse nationalities in these operations suggests a highly adaptive and broad recruitment strategy employed by the Kremlin. These acts of sabotage, including arson and physical assaults, aim to sow discord, disrupt critical infrastructure, extoll costs, and undermine public trust in government and security institutions.

While the ASW’s detainment of suspects shows Poland’s security apparatus is successfully combating Russian hybrid warfare, it also shows how widespread and rampant those operations really are.

Sources: ABC News, Notes From Poland, Polskie Radio

End Brief

That concludes this brief.

Thank you for reading!
— Nick