Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s discuss a few key geopolitical developments from this week.

Reporting Period: 23-26 June 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Read my latest piece published by Geopolitical Monitor HERE!

Trump Pushes For Israel-Iran Ceasefire; Intelligence Report Suggests Iranian Nuclear Program Is Disrupted, Not Destroyed

Summary
On 23 June, President Trump took to Truth Social to declare a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. On 24 June, Trump expressed his frustration to reporters regarding violations of the ceasefire. Reporting from CNN and The New York Times suggests Iran’s nuclear program is merely delayed. Continued uncertainty regarding the ceasefire and the status of Iran’s nuclear program raises questions as to whether strikes will continue, and if the U.S., Israel, and Western allies are at risk from retaliation.

Findings
The findings below are presented in a timeline analysis format:

• Background: On 22 June, Secretary Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Caine briefed media on Operation Midnight Hammer. Reportedly, U.S. Air Force B-2A stealth bombers dropped 14 GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrators on the Natanz and Fordo nuclear facilities. General Caine stated that a single submarine (likely of the Ohio-class) fired more than two-dozen “Tomahawk” missiles on the Isfahan nuclear facility.

• Iran’s Retaliation: On 23 June, Iran retaliated against Operation Midnight Hammer by launching missiles at the U.S.’s al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar.
  Iran reportedly warned Qatar and the U.S. before the attack. There were no casualties, minimal damage, and U.S. air defences intercepted Iran’s missiles.

• Ceasefire Announcement: Following Iran’s retaliation, President Trump announced a ceasefire had been reached between Israel and Iran. Trump dubbed the conflict “The 12-Day War.” In a separate Q/A with reporters, Trump stated he does not want a regime change in Iran, but that the nation will “never” have nuclear weapons.

• Violations: Not long after the ceasefire announcement, violations were reported. Trump voiced his displeasure to reporters.

• Iranian Nuclear Program: On 24 June, CNN and The New York Times reported that a leaked intelligence report suggests Iran’s nuclear program is still operational, but heavily disrupted. President Trump and VP Vance later stated that those reports were false.
  Battle Damage Assessments (BDAs) are standard components for offensive air operations and determine future mission planning based on assessed effects on a target.
  Israel has already stated that if Iran resumes its nuclear program, it will continue to target those facilities and military assets protecting them.

Why This Matters
This is an interesting situation. From the American perspective, the Trump administration has used the Iran situation to reform American foreign policy. A blend of political realism and Roosevelt’s famed “Speak softly but carry a big stick,” Vice President Vance summarized this foreign policy revival succinctly:

However, the establishment of a ceasefire and an ultimate peace deal does not mean violence between Israel and Iran will end. There is still a significant risk of continued proxy conflict and, abroad, terrorism (either sponsored by state actors or inspired by ideological motivations). In the UK, for example, the government has announced that it must “actively prepare” for war in the “homeland.” In the U.S., ICE agents arrested 11 Iranian nationals, one of whom had ties to Hezbollah. This follows Iran’s threat that it would activate “sleeper cells” within the United States.

The bottom line is that Iran, which is looking for a way out, appears willing to avert a traditional open conflict with Israel and the U.S. However, Israel’s policies and interests are more vague, which complicates American responses. Until Israel and Iran issue formal statements regarding a ceasefire and a diplomatic resolution is made, this conflict risks continuing.

Sources: The New York Times, CNN, USAF, CNN, Al Jazeera, Reuters, CBS News

Historic NATO Summit Convenes In The Hague, Netherlands

Summary
From 24 to 25 June, the 2025 NATO Summit convened in The Hague, Netherlands. The summit brought together heads of state to discuss key issues, such as the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Iran conflict. The summit resulted in a defense spending increase for members, from 2% to 5% of GDP annually.

Findings

• Agenda: The 2025 NATO Summit included various meetings, speeches, and events.

  • 24 June: The first day of the summit included remarks by NATO leadership, meetings with non-NATO members (such as Ukraine, the European Union, and Indo-Pacific allies), and the summit’s plenary session.

  • 25 June: Following the arrival of heads of state, the second day of the summit began with remarks from Secretary General Rutte and President Trump. NATO heads of state convened the North Atlantic Council to discuss key agenda items. Following the North Atlantic Council’s session, NATO issued “The Hague Summit Declaration.”

• The Hague Summit Declaration: On 25 June, NATO’s heads of state issued a 5-point declaration that outlines the defense spending increase.

  • NATO heads of state reaffirmed their commitment to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all.

  • Allies are committed “to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defence requirements” by 2035. Funding will boost warfighting functions that support “deterrence and defence, crisis prevention and management, and cooperative security.”

  • The 5% GDP spending is broken into two parts: 3.5% for “core defence requirements,” and 1.5% for “inter alia” projects like infrastructure, network defence, innovation, and boosting defence industrial bases. Progress will be reviewed in 2029 to account for emerging technologies and warfighting innovations.

  • The next summit will be in Turkey in 2026.

• Controversy: Currently, 23 of 32 NATO members meet the original defense spending requirement of 2% GDP. Before the summit, Spain announced it had reached a deal with NATO, and will be exempt from the increase to 5% GDP spending.
  On 23 June, before the summit convened, the European Union and Canada signed a new defense agreement, suggesting faith in NATO remains fractured.

Why This Matters
The 2025 NATO Summit marks a theoretical turning point for the alliance. The commitment to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 suggests NATO is planning to prepare for multi-theater conflict and sustained Great Power Competition.

However, the declaration also exposes fractures within NATO. Spain’s exemption and the separate EU–Canada defense pact underscore lingering concerns over NATO burden-sharing and cohesion. As the U.S. pressures allies to spend more, some members are hedging their bets, seeking alternative arrangements or retaining fiscal autonomy.

For U.S. national security, the summit signals two clear imperatives:

• Operationally, Washington will benefit from a stronger European defense posture, enabling shared responsibility for deterrence and force projection. While NATO is looking to assist in the Pacific, greater contributions from members may allow the U.S. to focus on fewer operational theaters as conflict flashpoints emerge.

• Politically, managing allied cohesion will be as critical as deterring adversaries.

NATO’s ability to act decisively will depend not only on resources, but on its unity of purpose. The Hague Summit may be historic not for what it promised, but for whether its ambitions survive the friction of competing interests within the alliance.

Sources: NATO, DW, Fox News, NATO, NATO, AP News, The Guardian

Germany Approves Draft Budget, Sets Record Amount For Defense

Summary
On 24 June, the German cabinet approved a draft federal budget for 2025 and a financial framework for 2026. The plan includes record-breaking investments, significant borrowing, and a historic rise in defense spending, enabled by constitutional debt‑brake reforms.

Findings

• Total Budget and Borrowing: The 2025 draft allocates around €503 billion, including €81.8 billion in core budget borrowing plus over €60 billion from new special funds. Infrastructure investments rise sharply: €115.7 billion in 2025 and €123.6 billion in 2026, up from €74.5 billion in 2024.

• Defense Spending: Germany’s defense spending is set to nearly double from €95 billion in 2025 to €162 billion by 2029, reaching 3.5% of GDP. A previously established €100 billion defense fund and a constitutional amendment allow borrowing beyond the traditional debt cap. This indicates the Merz government’s intent to rebuild Germany’s military and become a defense leader in the EU.

  • Debt-Brake Reform: In March, Germany amended its constitutional “Schuldenbremse” to permit unlimited debt for defense and infrastructure — the first such relaxation since its introduction.

• Economic Strategy: The Merz government aims to end two years of stagnation by funding structural reforms, green transitions, and digital modernization while maintaining fiscal discipline and seeking savings across ministries.
  Germany still contends with a rising cost of living, unemployment, migration, high energy costs, and an aging population.

Why This Matters
Germany’s 2025 budget indicates that the Merz government is pursuing revitalization over budget balancing. Not only by relaxing debt limits and Germany’s ability to borrow, but by attempting to find ways to inject cash investments into a tried and true, but struggling, industrial economy.

Given that the previous Scholz government couldn’t even establish an economic plan, this appears to be Germany’s strongest and most unified push towards recovery and long-term strategic competition.

Sources: DW, The New York Times

Missile Defense Agency Conducts Successful Tracking Of ICBM

Summary
On 23 June, the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) conducted the first successful tracking of an air-launched Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) with the Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR). The test was the core event of Flight Test Other-26a (FTX-26a), which occurred off the southern coast of Alaska. Sensor inputs supported the simulated engagement by the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system.

Findings

• Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR): LRDR, located at Clear Space Force Station, Alaska, is an AESA radar designed for early-warning. The radar installation is a part of the U.S.’s GBMD systems, itself a cornerstone of President Trump’s Golden Dome initiative. The radar is operated through the Command and Control Battle Management and Communications (C2BMC) network.

• FTX-26a: This test involved the air-launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile that was programmed to mimic an ICBM launch off of Alaska’s southern coast. LRDR successfully tracked the missile and, alongside other sensors, transmitted the data to other agencies, providing a proof-of-concept for intercept operations.

Why This Matters
FTX-26a is a major step in confirming LRDR’s role as a cornerstone of next-generation homeland missile defense. It proved a growing capability to detect and discriminate long-range missile threats with precision and reliability.

It also demonstrated integration with legacy systems, proving the U.S. currently has an Integrated Air Defense network that can be built upon.

Sources: MDA, DVIDS, Lockheed Martin

End Brief

That concludes this brief.

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me: [email protected] 

Thank you for reading!

Nick

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