Good morning,

The ongoing UN General Assembly has proven to be a launch platform for world leaders, as various developments have occurred alongside the ongoing debate.

Keep that in mind as you read today’s long brief.

Reporting Period: 22-25 September 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

PUBLICATION UPDATE: Due to my wedding and honeymoon, there will be limited publications from 27 September to 6 October. Thanks for understanding!

General Debate Begins As 80th UN General Assembly Continues

Summary
On 23 September, the United Nations commenced the General Debate for the 80th General Assembly. Of note were President Trump’s remarks, discussions on Russia’s incursions into NATO airspaces, and the Middle East crisis. The General Debate will conclude on 29 September.

Findings

• 80th UN General Assembly: On 23 September, UN Secretary General Guterres and UNGA President Baerbock opened the General Debate of the 80th UN General Assembly (UN). President Trump spoke during the morning session (General Assembly Debate). On 22 and 23 September, the UN Security Council convened for special sessions, including on Russia and the continuing Gaza crisis (UN News).

  • UN Security Council Sessions: On 22 September, the Security Council convened to address Russia’s hybrid warfare and aircraft incursions into NATO airspaces (UN News). Remarks from Poland, Romania, and Estonia suggested that Russia’s incursions were intentional and that NATO has the right to defend itself with lethal force (UN News).

  • Trump Speech: On 23 September, President Trump addressed the United Nations (CBS News). Trump spoke about investment in the United States, strict immigration policies, and his efforts to end conflicts across the globe (General Assembly Debate).
    Trump also declared that Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons, and that Hamas should release hostages so a peace deal in Gaza can be established (General Assembly Debate). Trump also threatened new sanctions and tariffs on Russia before criticizing the UN, green energy policies, and globalism (The White House, General Assembly Debate).

  • Palestinian Statehood: On 22 September, before the General Debate, Western nations formally recognized Palestine as a sovereign nation (Al Jazeera). Those nations now include France, Luxembourg, Malta, Monaco, Belgium, Canada, Australia, Portugal, and the United Kingdom (CNN, Al Jazeera).

  The UN General Debate schedule indicates speeches will continue until 29 September (UN). On 24 September, some notable speakers (relative to the current geopolitical landscape) were Ukraine, Iran, Panama, Latvia, Estonia, Serbia, Finland, Nigeria, Slovakia, and Congo (UN).

Why This Matters
A year ago, I covered the 79th UN General Assembly before publishing a piece with The Havok Journal. My initial thoughts from then reign true today:

There are few indications that this year’s UNGA and General Debate are anything but performative. The special session on the Middle East gave a lot of credence to Gaza’s plight and Israel’s ongoing nation-building, and the sidelines of the summit proved to be good for bilateral diplomacy (like between Trump and Ukraine and the EU).

But some of the actual decisions once again highlighted the UN’s ineffectual nature. For example, Russia and China refusing to honor a UNSC decision and planned sanctions highlights this.

Trump took some heat for his speech, but was right to point out that the UN has pursued meager and performative agendas, such as green energy discussions and globalism, while real humanitarian crises, wars, and cross-border disputes have gone largely unaddressed, and old UN rulings having never been enforced (The White House).

What I urge readers to do is be aware of the schedule for the UNGA, but watch the sidelines; watch the bilateral meetings, official statements, and memos that are published alongside the UN. Those are where the real decisions are being made.

Trump Hardens Stance On Russia Following UN Speech, Meets With Zelenskyy And Von Der Leyen

Summary
On 23 September, following an address to the United Nations and bilateral meetings, President Trump posted a remark on Truth Social indicating a hardened stance against Russia and greater support for Ukraine. Trump stated that with Europe’s help, and American weapon sales to NATO, Ukraine is capable of regaining all of its territory from Russia.

Findings

• Trump-Zelenskyy Meeting: On the sidelines of the UNGA, President Trump met with Zelenskyy. Speaking in front of reporters, Trump stated that NATO forces should shoot down Russian aircraft if they commit airspace violations (The Kyiv Independent, X). When asked if he still trusts Russian President Putin, Trump stated that he will know in about “a month from now,” implying some type of dialogue or decision is in the works (The Kyiv Independent).

  • Zelenskyy Reply: Later, Zelenskyy took to X to thank President Trump for their bilateral meeting, and to express gratitude for continued military support to Ukraine (X). Zelenskyy specifically praised the PURL Initiative, whereby the United States sells weapons to NATO for donation to Ukraine (X).
    Reportedly, Zelenskyy also stated that “Trump possesses very important information regarding the situation at the front,” implying the approach of a major decision point or diplomatic overture (X).

• Trump-von der Leyen Meeting: On 23 September, President Trump and EU Commission President von der Leyen met adjacent to the UN General Assembly (New York Post). The pair discussed economic and military support for Ukraine, but highlighted plans to phase out European purchases of Russian LNG products by 2027 or earlier (UNN).

• Social Media Post: On 23 September, Trump took to Truth Social to highlight Russia’s “War Economy” crisis and the continued battlefield losses that “is not distinguishing Russia.” Citing Russia’s slow progress, Trump stated that Ukraine may retake its lost territory with continued European, NATO, and American support (BBC).

Why This Matters
This is a lot to piece together and comprehend in a “big picture.”

But Trump’s hardening stance on Russia, paired with support for Ukraine’s territorial restoration, is a major pivot from the reserved, diplomatically amicable position that was offered to Russia even a month ago. It is unclear if Trump’s decision is to pressure Putin into high-level negotiations with Ukraine, or if the U.S. will truly take a more active role in boosting Ukraine’s war effort and crippling Russia’s.

This will be dependent on a few things, namely aid to Ukraine, sanctions and Russia’s war economy, and the continuation of Russian hybrid warfare operations inside NATO territory. From an even grander viewpoint, how nations like Iran, China, and India engage with Russia is also very likely to influence U.S. policy in Europe, and could harden Trump’s position against Moscow further.

Zelenskyy implied that Trump has new information regarding the war, and Russia’s own efforts, which suggests an imminent decision point. This could be more weapons for Ukraine, or even a rare earth deal between Kyiv and Washington. It could be regarding joint U.S.-EU sanctions, or something related to LNG and energy for Europe—it is too soon to tell, but the progress of the Alaska Summit is surely undone for now.

Putin Proposes Adherence To New START Agreement After Expiry

Summary
On 22 September, Russian President Putin stated Russia would abide by the New START Nuclear Treaty a year after its expiry in February 2026. Putin stated the permanent termination of the 2010 agreement would be “provoking a further strategic arms race.” Putin urged the United States to adhere to New START following its expiry. Putin framed the decision as “voluntary self-restraints,” indicating Russia’s supposed nuclear forebearance is a soft power tool and negotiable item when Moscow seeks diplomatic normalization with the West.

Findings

• New START: New START, officially the “Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms,” is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia (The White House). It was signed by President Obama and President Medvedev on 8 April 2010 (BBC). It was ratified on 5 February 2011 (U.S. Department of State).
  The terms of the treaty include limitations on the size and deployment of nuclear weapons arsenals, provisions for onsite inspections, data exchanges, and consultative commissions (U.S. Department of State).
  A negotiated START II treaty was never ratified into law, and START III negotiations were never concluded (Arms Control Association).

• Putin’s Statement: On 22 September, during Russia’s Security Council meeting at the Kremlin, Putin stated that Russia would adhere to New START a year beyond its 5 February 2026 expiry (AP News).
  Putin called the decision “voluntary self-restraints” that will remain “viable if the United States acts in a similar manner” (NBC News).
  Putin stated the decision is to avoid a strategic arms race, ensure “acceptable predictability and restraint,” and to maintain the nuclear status quo set by New START (NBC News).

Why This Matters
In the 7 August 2025 publication of The Intel Brief, I assessed that Russia’s similar treatment of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) was to enhance Russia’s soft power and degrade the U.S., and to incentivize future diplomacy when Russia begins its path to diplomatic normalization with the West (The Intel Brief). In August, Putin used the same “voluntary restraint” rhetoric to depict Russia as restrained and morally conscientious, when in fact, Russia had a terrible track record of INF non-compliance (The Intel Brief).

It is also likely that Putin could use nuclear negotiations as a pretext for bilateral talks with U.S. officials. Under such a scenario, Russia could sign diplomatic treaties with the United States and, in a sense, normalize the status quo in Europe—hybrid warfare against NATO and direct conflict with Ukraine (within Russia’s historical periphery).

Iranian Supreme Leader Boasts Uranium Enrichment, But States Tehran Is Not Pursuing Weapons

Summary
On 23 September, Iran’s Supreme Leader took to X, amid the ongoing UN General Assembly, to promote Iran’s nuclear program and reject negotiations with the United States. All indications suggest Iran will attempt to endure snapback sanctions, continue its nuclear program, and bolster its defense posture against future U.S. or Israeli strikes.

Findings

• Background: In late August, E3 officials (Britain, France, and Germany) initiated the “snapback” mechanism, which triggered reimposing UN sanctions on Iran, due to Tehran’s noncompliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and a failure to establish a new nuclear deal (The Intel Brief).
  On 3 September, Iran proposes adherence to the 2015 JCPOA so long as all original signatories (including the United States) returned to the deal (The Intel Brief).
  On 19 September, the UN Security Council did not adopt a resolution to extend sanctions relief to Iran under the 2015 JCPOA terms, and both Russia and China stated they would not adhere to the sanctions (X).
  Snapback sanctions are expected to be implemented this month.

• Supreme Leader Khamenei’s Statements: On 23 September, Supreme Leader Khamenei addressed Iran through state media, and his X account appears to have posted the address—or talking points—in segments (X).
  Khamenei touted Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, despite U.S. strikes against it, and stated that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons (X). Khamenei also stated that Iran will not give in to pressure to abandon its nuclear enrichment program (X). Lastly, Khamenei also stated that Iran is not willing to engage in direct negotiations with the United States:

• State of Iran’s Nuclear Facilities: While the Trump administration has officially claimed that Operation Midnight Hammer destroyed Iran’s nuclear program, Iranian officials claim that only some facilities were destroyed (Sky News). Supreme Leader Khamenei’s statements also indicate that much of Iran’s facilities survived the strikes or will be rebuilt:

• Iranian Military Posture: On 23 September, a member of Iran’s national security committee stated that Russian MiG-29 fighters had arrived at a base in Shiraz, Iran, and that Su-35 fighters are “on the way'“ (Iran International). The same source states that Chinese HQ-9 and Russian S-400 air defense systems were being supplied to Iran (Iran International).

Why This Matters
Khamenei’s public defiance underscores that Iran is prepared to absorb renewed UN sanctions while continuing enrichment, effectively nullifying what remains of the JCPOA framework despite Iran stating it wanted to return to the treaty. The refusal to negotiate with Washington damages any short-term diplomatic off-ramp and locks U.S. policy into a cycle of sanctions enforcement, deterrence, and possible military action.

The cooperation with Russia and China also complicates U.S. policy with Iran, and broader efforts to end the war in Ukraine and reach amicable relations with Beijing. These developments indicate Iran will continue to develop its nuclear program, postpone or cancel dialogues with Western powers, and prepare for further U.S. or Israeli strikes on its facilities. The deployment of Russian aircraft suggests a deterrence-centric strategy, but it also implies that those aircraft would launch and engage targets over Iran.

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!
— Nick