Good morning,

This is your Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

Reporting Period: 21-24 July 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Iran To Discuss Nuclear Program With Europeans, Separate Talks Held With Russia And China

Summary
Tomorrow, 25 July, Iran will hold nuclear talks with Germany, France, and the UK in Istanbul, Turkey. Iranian state media reported that the meeting will take place at the “deputy foreign minister” level. The three European powers previously threatened new sanctions if Iran did not resume nuclear negotiations. Russia and China sent diplomats to Tehran ahead of the meetings in Turkey.

Findings

• Background: In 2015, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (USA, UK, France, China, and Russia) and Germany signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the “Iran Deal” or “Iran Nuclear Deal.” Iran repeatedly violated the deal, as verified by the IAEA, and in May 2018, President Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement.

  Iran’s continued nuclearization was the cause for Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025.

• Tehran Talks: On 22 July, IRNA reported that senior diplomats from Russia and China met in Tehran, Iran, to discuss the status of Iran’s nuclear program and future negotiations with Europe and the United States.

• Istanbul Talks: Tomorrow, 25 July, Iranian, English, French, and German delegates are meeting in Istanbul to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. The European parties reportedly requested the meeting under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal, suggesting Iran very likely favors an unenforceable deal.
  The talks are expected to cover sanctions, IAEA inspector access, and future negotiation coordination.

• Iranian Position: On 22 July, IRNA published a statement from Foreign Minister Araqchi. The report states that “Iran will not give up its uranium enrichment program despite Israeli-U.S. strikes targeting its nuclear facilities last month.”
  Iranian media recently claimed that Iran has rebuilt the air defenses that were previously destroyed by Israeli and American strikes.

Why This Matters
It is uncertain what will come of Friday’s nuclear negotiations between Iran and the Europeans, but the context of the meetings, Russia and China’s preparation, and the diplomatic level all lead me to a few thoughts:

• Iran is seeking a deal that is unenforceable by the UN and international watchdogs (i.e. the IAEA).

• Iran is not lying when it says it will continue its nuclear program.

• Iran is trying to deter future strikes, but knows that it will remain uncertain.

Europe’s involvement is perhaps the most confusing. The meetings and relatively low-level and already imply no significant deal will be met. Additionally, these European powers, along with a few others, endorsed Operation Midnight Hammer and suggested the termination of Iran’s nuclear program would be doing the international community “a favor.” So, what the Europeans hope to do remains uncertain, but the immediate goals seem to be:

• Reestablish diplomacy with Iran. Keep bringing them to the table.

• Involve the international community, especially the UN (if able).

• Attempt to legitimize the 2015 nuclear deal for future renegotiation.

• Build E3 soft power (E3 is an informal leadership arrangement between France, Germany, and the UK, and is enjoying a resurgence due to the recent Germany-UK defense pact).

Sources: Reuters, Reuters, IRNA, Anadolu Ajansı

Protests Erupt In Ukraine Over Anti-Corruption Bill

Summary
On 22 July, Ukrainians gathered in Kyiv and other cities to pressure President Zelenskyy to veto a bill that restructures anti-corruption institutions. Zelenskyy signed the bill into law that evening. One European official called the decision “a serious step back.” These are some of the largest protests in Ukraine in the post-Maidan period.

Findings

• Background: In October 2014, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) was established under Ukrainian anti-corruption legislation and pressure from the European Commission to combat rampant corruption in Ukraine’s government and elite society.
  NABU has often worked hand-in-hand with the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO).

• Bill Number 12414: On 22 July, the Verkohva Rada passed this bill with 263 votes in favor, 13 against, and 13 abstentions.
  The bill, now law, places NABU and SAPO under the control of the Prosecutor General’s Office.

• Protests: The scale of protests is uncertain, but Western media have reported that “thousands” have taken to the streets of Kyiv and other major cities. Ukrainians also grow concerned that funds being donated to Ukraine’s war effort are being misused or stolen by corrupt officials.
  EU Enlargement Commissioner Kos stated that the independence of bodies like NABU and SAPO are critical for EU accession.

Why This Matters
Attempts to dilute anti-corruption authorities risk eroding domestic trust, pressure regime change, or could trigger foreign aid suspension, as many international partners view NABU and related bodies as essential to Ukraine’s post-Maidan progress. President Zelenskyy's recognition of the public’s dissatisfaction also signals the potential for legislative reversal.

Perhaps this law will have its greatest effect in the West. If the civil populace catch wind of the new change, ruling officials may be pressured to pause or cancel aid to Ukraine until guarantees regarding corruption are provided. In the U.S., for example, support for Ukraine is not a bipartisan opinion and many feel that while Ukraine’s cause is just, elites inKyiv have misused funds.

If for whatever reason Western nations reduce, pause, or cancel aid to Ukraine due to corruption uncertainties, then Ukraine’s battlefield efforts could suffer.

Sources: AP News, Reuters

Ukraine, Russia Convene In Turkey For Third Round Of Negotiations

Summary
On 23 July, Ukrainian and Russian officials met in Istanbul, Turkey, to conduct peace negotiations. The talks will continue today and conclude on Friday, 25 July. It is likely that both sides will reach a deal on further prisoner exchanges, but a ceasefire is unlikely to be reached.

Findings

• Background: Ukraine and Russia previously held negotiations that resulted in prisoner exchanges. Those negotiations were on 16 May 2025 and 2 June 2025. These were the first direct diplomatic engagements between Ukraine and Russia since the war began in 2022. On 16 June, President Trump issued a 50-day deadline for a ceasefire to be reached, threatening Russia with increased tariffs if Putin and the Kremlin fail to do so.

• Negotiation Announcement: On 21 July, President Zelenskyy announced that Rustem Umerov (former Ukrainian Defense Minister) would be leading negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey, on Wednesday, 23 July.

• Istanbul Talks: The negotiations in Istanbul began on Wednesday, 23 July. Russia’s TASS news agency reported that the negotiations will continue through Friday, 25 July.

Why This Matters
Estimate as of 1800 EST, 23 July 2025:

It is uncertain what the outcome of this third round of negotiations will be. These talks will likely yield status quo results. In this case, that means we can expect more prisoner swaps and an agreement to meet for future talks.

This is the trend with Russia, as Putin and the Kremlin seem to use diplomacy as a narrative tool, and one to confuse and stretch Ukrainian efforts and resources. Putin and his inner circle maintain that Russia’s interests must be met in order for a lasting ceasefire to be reached. Those interests are:

• No NATO accession for Ukraine

• Ukraine cedes occupied eastern territories to Russia

• Ukraine pursues controlled demilitarization

It is my opinion that Russia wants to drag out negotiations close to Trump’s 50-day deadline, as a way of pressuring Trump to attend China’s 80th anniversary of victory during WWII. This way, Putin can pressure a meeting with Trump and force his presence at an event hosted by the multipolar powers, something that would shock and unsettle the U.S.-led order and Western allies.

Russia’s interest, as it expands its drone and missile supply and addresses economic issues, is to buy time. Ukraine’s disposition is unsustainable, so the Kremlin wants to maintain pressure and push for a peace that benefits Moscow’s interests.

Sources: ABC News, PBS News, The New York Times, RFE/RL, Kyiv Post

U.S. Approves Major Military Sales To Ukraine

Summary
On 23 July, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced the approval of Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs) and HAWK Phase III Missile Systems. The sales are approved through the Foreign Military Sale program. The value is more than $320 million.

Findings

• Bradley IFVs and Support: The U.S. will sell Ukraine up to 72 Bradley IFVs. The package includes spare parts, organic sensors, covering systems, and the Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) capability. The estimated total cost is $150 million.

• HAWK Phase III: Ukraine is purchasing $172 million worth of HAWK Phase III systems and sustainment. The deal includes cargo trucks, spare parts, refurbishment tools, HAWK air defense firing units, support equipment, technical documents, and training.

• German Commitments: On 23 July, Germany asked for U.S. commitments that if Berlin gives Ukraine two Patriot systems, Washington will replace them sometime in 2025.

Why This Matters
The acquisition of Bradley IFVs will provide Ukrainian forces with state-of-the-art mobility, armament, and protection — tools essential for advancing combat operations and force protection.

Meanwhile, the Hawk Phase III systems are a major upgrade to Ukraine’s layered air-defense network. With Russian drone and missile use intensifying, additional medium-range interceptors and radars will be critical to protecting military units, vital infrastructure, and civilian areas.

Sources: DSCA, DSCA

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

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— Nick