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This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief, the finest open-source geopolitical analysis available. Let’s review key updates from this week.

Reporting Period: 19-22 May 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Missile Defense Agency Receives New Radar As Trump Announces “Golden Dome” Plan

Summary
On 19 May, Raytheon (RTX) announced it had delivered a new AN/TPY-2 Radar to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA). The radar that was delivered is an upgraded variant designed specifically for the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) system. RTX claims new technologies allow the radar to aid in the tracking and intercept of hypersonic missiles. On 20 May, the Trump administration announced the plan — and cost — for carrying out the “Golden Dome” project.

Findings

• Radar Delivery: On 19 May, Raytheon, a division of RTX Corporation, delivered the 13th AN/TPY-2 radar system to the MDA.

• AN/TPY-2 Radar: According to RTX, the new radar uses a Gallium Nitride (GaN) array for greater detection, tracking, and identification of missiles in flight. It also ships with CX6 computing software to power rapid and accurate targeting and electronic protection features.
  The system is an X-band radar with an open-source range of 1,600 to 1,900 NM (depending on the operating mode).

• Integration with “Golden Dome”: The upgraded AN/TPY-2 radar is designed to operate as a standalone, mobile unit, making it a potential component of the "Golden Dome" missile defense system. Its ability to provide accurate, high-quality targeting data to various missile defense interceptors positions it as a versatile asset in the layered defense architecture envisioned by the initiative.

• “Golden Dome” Initiative: The Pentagon recently submitted various options for developing and implementing the “Golden Dome” initiative to the White House. CNN reports that President Trump will likely announce the project status — and its cost — this week. $25 billion has already been allocated for the project from next year’s defense budget. The Congressional Budget Office suggests the program will cost $500 billion over 20 years. During the announcement of the chosen concept on 20 May, President Trump claimed it will cost $175 billion over 3 years.

• Canadian Interest: On 21 May, reporting confirmed that the Canadian government is in talks with the Trump admin to integrate with the “Golden Dome” project. Canadian support is likely to include financial contributions and an expanded NORAD relationship.

Why This Matters
The delivery of advanced radar systems and the initiation of the "Golden Dome" project represent significant steps in enhancing the United States' domestic missile defense capabilities. As global adversaries develop more sophisticated missile technologies, including hypersonic weapons, these advancements are crucial for maintaining national security and deterrence.

The radar’s mobility also allows it to quickly deploy to conflict flashpoints alongside air defense launchers, either as a strategic deterrent or tactical asset.

Sources: RTX, Breaking Defense, CNN, Missile Threat, Marine Corps Times

UK, EU Sign Significant Post-Brexit Agreement

Summary
On 19 May, the United Kingdom and European Union signed a comprehensive agreement aimed at resetting their relationship. The deal comes five years after Brexit, the UK’s departure from the EU. The deal encompasses trade, defense, mobility, and regulatory cooperation. The UK government claims it will add nearly £9 billion to the UK economy by 2040.

Findings

• Economic Impact: The UK government estimates the SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) and Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) components of the deal will add nearly £9 billion to the UK economy by 2040. A new permanent SPS agreement removes routine checks on animal and plant products, reducing border delays and compliance costs. This is expected to lower food prices and increase product variety on supermarket shelves. The ETS alignment avoids a projected £800 million annual cost to UK businesses from the EU’s carbon border tax, set to begin next year.

• Steel and Industrial Protection: UK steel exports will be shielded from new EU tariffs via a bespoke arrangement that will save British steel producers £25 million annually.

• Defense and Security Cooperation: The UK will participate in the EU's £150 billion defense fund, allowing British defense firms to bid for EU contracts. This marks a significant step in UK-EU security collaboration post-Brexit. It also coincides with the ReARM Europe initiative and consensus in NATO to increase member defense spending to 5% GDP.
  The UK and EU have agreed to begin negotiations on sharing facial recognition data, complementing existing agreements on fingerprint, DNA, and vehicle registration data.

• Fishing Rights: The UK has agreed to extend EU fishing access to British waters until 2038, a 12-year extension beyond the previous arrangement. The UK will invest £360 million in its fishing industry, aimed at modernizing fleets, boosting exports, and revitalizing coastal communities. This decision has sparked criticism from some UK fishing communities who feel it undermines Brexit promises.

• Mobility and Youth Exchange: A proposed Youth Mobility Scheme will allow limited-term work, study, or travel for young people between the UK and EU. Details on quotas and durations are still under negotiation.

• Travel and Border Control: British travelers will gain access to EU e-gates, expediting border checks at European airports. This change is expected to facilitate smoother travel for UK citizens within the EU. It also comes as UK PM Starmer announced his intention to significantly overhaul immigration to the UK.

Why This Matters
This agreement signifies a pivotal moment in UK-EU relations, moving beyond the contentious Brexit period towards a more collaborative future. By addressing key areas such as trade, defense, and mobility, the deal aims to foster economic growth and stability. However, domestic reactions are mixed; while businesses and some political leaders welcome the reduced trade friction and enhanced cooperation, critics argue that concessions, particularly on fishing rights and regulatory alignment, compromise UK sovereignty. The agreement's success will depend on its implementation and the ability of both parties to navigate the remaining unresolved details.

Sources: UK Government, AP News, The New York Times

Army Reserve To Conduct Its Largest Exercise Ever

Summary
In late May, the U.S. Army Reserve is launching Exercise Mojave Falcon 25. With over 9,000 soldiers mobilizing across multiple states, the exercise is the force’s largest ever. It focuses on preparing the Army Reserve for large-scale combat operations (LSCO) and integrates logistics, sustainment, and medical support to combat-centric forces.

Findings

• Scale and Scope: Over 9,000 U.S. Army Reserve personnel participated in the exercise across key sites, including Fort Hunter Liggett, Fort Irwin (CA), Fort Bragg (NC), JBMDL (NJ), Fort Barfoot (VA), and the Port of Long Beach (CA).

• Integrated Exercises: Mojave Falcon 25 combines CSTX, Global Medic, QLLEX, and Nationwide Move into one large-scale mobilization and field training event.

• First-Ever Live Fire: The Army Reserve conducted its first-ever platform live-fire training as part of the exercise, enhancing combat readiness under LSCO conditions.

• Joint and Multidomain Operations: Reserve soldiers practiced convoy operations, rail loading, port logistics, and Navy coordination to replicate global deployment scenarios.

Why This Matters
Operation Mojave Falcon 25 signals a critical shift in how the United States prepares its Reserve forces for a future of high-intensity conflict. With rising tensions in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East, large-scale mobilizations will not be limited to the active-duty force.

This exercise demonstrates that the Reserve component is being actively prepared to deploy, sustain, and fight in theater-wide operations. For defense planners, it affirms the need to treat Reserve logistics, sustainment, and combat support units as frontline contributors — not just strategic depth. It also suggests the Army is leaning more heavily on total force integration, a requirement for multi-domain operations against near-peer adversaries like China and Russia.

Interestingly, Mojave Falcon 25 comes not long after the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve Command stated it will begin “wide-ranging mobilization exercises” in FY26 to prepare the force for augmentation during large-scale contingencies. This further indicates the Pentagon’s desire to enhance the U.S. military’s rapid mobilization capability.

Sources: U.S. Army, Defense News

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall; Israel Preparing To Strike Facilities

Summary
As of 21 May, U.S.–Iran nuclear negotiations are at an impasse due to Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. Simultaneously, U.S. intelligence suggests Israel is preparing for a potential military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. These developments heighten regional tensions and complicate ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Findings

• U.S.–Iran Negotiations: Iran insists on its right to enrich uranium, rejecting U.S. demands for a complete halt. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei labeled U.S. demands as "excessive and outrageous," expressing skepticism about reaching an agreement.
  President Trump previously claimed U.S. and Iranian negotiators were close to reaching a deal.
  Secretary of State Rubio has cautioned U.S. decision-makers from entering an enrichment deal with Iran. Previously, reporting suggested the Trump administration was deeply fractured on how to proceed with Iran.

• Israel's Potential Military Action: U.S. intelligence indicates Israel is preparing for a possible strike on Iranian nuclear sites, citing intercepted communications and military activities. While no final decision has been made, the likelihood of an Israeli strike has reportedly increased in recent months.

• U.S. Diplomatic Efforts: President Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran have "sort of" agreed on terms for a nuclear deal, with Iran showing willingness to reduce enriched uranium stockpiles and allow inspections. However, Iran maintains that uranium enrichment is non-negotiable.

Why This Matters
The convergence of stalled nuclear negotiations and potential Israeli military action against Iran's nuclear facilities presents a critical juncture for Middle East stability. A unilateral Israeli strike could undermine diplomatic efforts and provoke retaliatory measures, escalating into a broader regional conflict. The U.S. faces the challenge of balancing support for Israel's security concerns with the pursuit of a diplomatic resolution to Iran's nuclear program. Failure to achieve a negotiated agreement risks not only regional instability but also the potential for nuclear proliferation.

Sources: CNN, Reuters, BBC, The Times of Israel

End Brief

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