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This is the premium version of The Intel Brief. Let’s review critical updates from the week!

Reporting Period: 18-21 August 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Trump Organizes Putin-Zelenskyy Meeting Following Alaska And White House Summits

Summary
On 18 July, President Trump hosted President Zelenskyy and seven other European leaders at the White House. The group debriefed on the Alaska Summit between Trump and Putin, discussed security guarantees for Ukraine, and arrangements for future negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. On 19 August, the White House confirmed a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy is agreed upon.

Findings

• Background: On 15 August, President Trump and President Putin met at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, to conduct a bilateral meeting concerning the war in Ukraine. Trump stated that an “understanding” had been reached with Putin. On 16 August, Trump confirmed the 18 August meeting at the White House with President Zelenskyy and other European leaders.
  Ahead of the White House meeting, Trump stated that “if all works out,” he would secure a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy. On 17 August, Trump stated that “Big progress on Russia” had been made.

• White House Meeting: On 18 August, Trump hosted President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. After, they sat down with various European leaders to discuss ending the war in Ukraine.

  • Leaders in Attendance: French President Macron, German Chancellor Merz, British Prime Minister Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, EU Commission President von der Leyen, Finnish President Stubb, and NATO Secretary General Rutte.

  • Security for Ukraine: President Trump stated that the United States will help provide Ukraine security guarantees (in line with his 15 and 16 August statements), but did not elaborate on details. Trump confirmed to reporters that Putin had accepted the idea of America providing security guarantees to Ukraine, with U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff likening the idea to NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause.
    On 19 August, Anadolu Ajansı reported that Secretary of State Rubio will leave a U.S.-Ukraine-Europe commission to develop comprehensive security guarantees for Ukraine.

  • Ceasefire: Despite previously threatening sanctions on Russia if a ceasefire was not reached, Trump has now stated that all parties would prefer to avoid a ceasefire and move directly to a peace agreement. In a later session at the White House, German Chancellor Merz stated there should be a ceasefire.

  • Planning Future Talks: Following the White House meeting, Trump stated he called Putin to coordinate a meeting between him and Zelenskyy. Trump stated that after direct Ukraine-Russia talks take place, he would organize a “Trilat” between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine. Zelenskyy stated he is “ready” for direct talks with Putin and Russia.

• Putin-Zelenskyy Meeting: On 19 August, White House Press Secretary Leavitt announced that Putin and Zelenskyy had agreed to a bilateral meeting. A date and location are unconfirmed.

• The Battlefield: Ukraine’s Air Force reported that Russia launched 270 drones and 10 missiles while Zelenskyy was in the United States. The Russian Defense Ministry stated it shot down 23 Ukrainian drones during the same time period. The FSB also claims to have prevented a Ukrainian attack on the Crimean Bridge. Russian ground offensives have not relented.

Why This Matters
The Alaska and White House summits marked a historic diplomatic leap between the U.S., Europe and Ukraine, and Russia, with the apparent meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy being the first real move towards peace since the conflict began in 2022.

While the time and date of the Putin-Zelenskyy meeting is unknown, I estimate it will be more symbolic than effectual. Both Kyiv and Moscow have drastically different strategic goals, each in opposition of the will of the other. This means extreme concessions, such as surrendering territory, resources, or security futures, may be initially off the table for both parties. I estimate that a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting will yield a prisoner exchange, an understanding to meet for a “Trilat” with Trump, and possibly a brief ceasefire.

Looking ahead to a Trilat, or even a meeting including the European leaders, Trump could sway a more favorable deal by offering Russia a path towards diplomatic normalcy, security guarantees, NATO expansion restrictions, and economic integration (especially regarding energy).

This is such an interesting time, in part because Russia is at a strategic crossroads: Russia could either agree to an unfavorable peace or walk away from a deal, pushing it down the path of multilateralism. Or Russia could take a deal that brings it back, in simple terms, towards the G8 (at the expense of Ukraine).

CSIS also made a good point; that a ceasefire or peace deal will need to be backed by enforcement mechanisms and sanction threats so that Russia’s joint warfighting capabilities (land, sea, air, naval, and cyber) are monitored and not employed in such a way that they cannot exploit a lull.

This is a historic period that requires tactful and visionary diplomacy.

Sources: The Intel Brief, ABC News, ABC News, Civil Georgia, BBC, CNN, CBS News, CNN, Anadolu Ajansı

Hamas Agrees To Principle Ceasefire Deal While Thousands Of Israelis Protest Netanyahu Government

Summary
On 18 August, Hamas notified Egyptian and Qatari mediators that it approved of the latest Gaza ceasefire proposal. The proposal includes hostage exchange details. On 17 August, thousands of Israelis participated in nationwide protests against the Netanyahu government, demanding the release of remaining hostages.

Findings

• Israeli Protests: On 17 August, more than 400,000 protestors gathered at Hostages Square in Tel Aviv, Israel, to demand the Netanyahu government propose a comprehensive hostage deal with Hamas and end the war.
  CNN reports that protestors participated in “hundreds of actions” across Israel.
  Speakers, either former hostages or family members of current captives, suggested that securing hostages has become a low priority, if not an alibi for the expansion of war in Gaza. One speaker stated that the “most just war” is now futile.
  Currently, there are 50 remaining hostages. CNN reports that only 20 are believed to be alive.

• Hamas Agrees to Terms: On 18 August, Hamas notified mediators from Egypt and Qatar that it agrees to the terms and conditions of a hostage-ceasefire proposal.
  The Jerusalem Post reported that Netanyahu was considering the proposal, but would only accept a deal that secures the release of all hostages.
  Currently, the proposal offers the release of 10 living Israelis in exchange for a 60-day ceasefire and the release of 150 terrorists currently incarcerated.
  Egyptian officials said the deal also includes the suspension of military operations in the Gaza Strip.

Why This Matters
While the protests in Israel are likely to pressure Netanyahu into agreeing to terms with Hamas, he is still unlikely to agree without proposing revisions.

If you recall, Netanyahu recently proposed plans to expand military operations into Gaza City in order to totally defeat and dismantle Hamas. From there, Netanyahu proposed establishing a new governing body over Gaza, one that excludes Hamas, its remnants, or the Palestinian Authority.

On 20 August, an IDF spokesperson stated that Israeli forces had begun their assault on Gaza City.

The Guardian stated Israel will respond before Friday whether it accepts the ceasefire-exchange plan or not.

Sources: CNN, BBC, The Jerusalem Post, The Guardian

Russian Propaganda Group Continues Producing Disinformation By Posing As Western Media

Summary
On 17 August, POLITICO reported that a Russian propaganda group has continued posing as Western media outlets to spread disinformation and support Russian information operations. POLITICO, citing NewsGuard, stated its own likeness was used in a recent disinformation publication. This technique is growing, especially due to Artificial Intelligence applications.

Findings

• Background: On 15 July, NewsGuard reported that Russian propaganda group Storm-1679 was engaging in “Matryoshka Propaganda” operations, influencing Moldovan elections through 39 fake media stories.
  The Matryoshka operation reportedly targeted the 2024 U.S. election, 2025 German snap elections, and war narratives in Ukraine.

  • Storm-1679: According to Malpedia, Storm-1679 is a Russian disinformation group with ties to the now-defunct Internet Research Agency, itself tied to the Wagner Group paramilitary company. Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center says the group uses AI, deepfakes, and stolen branding to fabricate false narratives through the use of reputable names and brands, such as BBC, The Economist, Fox News, POLITICO, and ABC News.

• War Propaganda: On 28 July, POLITICO reported that a fake article bearing POLITICO’s branding was circulating Telegram, Russia’s most popular social media site. The article, debunked by Ukrinform, suggests Ukrainians were “hunting down” Territorial Recruitment Center (TRC) employees in defiance of the war, suggesting deep-seated civil disunity and war weariness in Ukraine. The story was proven false and entirely fabricated.

Why This Matters
Russia’s Matryoshka operations are just one example of disinformation as a hybrid warfare capability, and one that is rapidly growing due to AI. It also happens that the effects of viral media and low costs mean these operations can be extremely effective for purposes of influence and manipulation.

Matryoshka operations already influenced politics in Germany, Romania, and Moldova, and are likely to continue skewing narratives across Western media; ideas that either promote Russian narratives or challenge contemporary issues, debates, and policies in the West, all for the sake of dividing people and resources.

Sources: POLITICO, Ukrinform, Malpedia, NewsGuard

U.S. Deploys Naval Assets To Caribbean, Prompting Venezuelan Mobilization

Summary
On 19 August, the U.S. Navy deployed significant naval assets to the Caribbean as part of expanding anti-cartel operations targeting drug and human trafficking networks. Venezuelan President Maduro mobilized the country’s civilian militia force in response. The deployment comes as Washington recently raised the reward for Maduro’s arrest to $50 million.

Findings

• Caribbean Deployment: On 15 August, it was revealed that the U.S. Navy would deploy destroyers, submarines, and aircraft to the Caribbean to support international operations against South America’s cartels, and their drug and human trafficking operations.
  The deployment is the fruition of President Trump’s alleged directive to—secretly—allow the Department of Defense to use military action against cartels.
  Fox News reports that 4,000 Marines and Sailors will be a part of the Caribbean deployment.

• Venezuelan Mobilization: On 18 August, in anticipation of U.S. assets entering the waters near Venezuela, President Maduro ordered the deployment of 4.5 million militamen.

  Maduro announced the mobilization after U.S. Attorney General Bondi announced a $50 million reward for Maduro’s arrest on 7 August.

• American Intervention: When asked about deploying troops to the region for combat operations, White House Press Secretary Leavitt stated the following:

• U.S.-Venezuelan Relations: The United States and Venezuela have not had formal diplomatic relations since 2019. In 2020, during his State of the Union address, President Trump hosted ousted President Guaido, touting him as the legitimate president of Venezuela.

Why This Matters
The deployment of naval assets is a welcome improvement to anti-drug and anti-human trafficking operations in the region. It is also quickly being exposed as a quasi-military campaign to challenge the cartels and Maduro’s fragile regime in Venezuela.

Maduro’s mass mobilization really underlines this fragility, but also increases the risk of civil strife and a direct confrontation with the United States. Why? Because the U.S.–Venezuelan relationship has been adversarial for more than a decade, with Washington recognizing opposition figures as legitimate leaders while accusing Maduro’s regime of narcotrafficking and authoritarian repression. Additionally, Maduro’s rise was at the expense of the Venezuelan people, with thousands having been killed or driven from the country, along with total economic collapse.

The developing issue has also drawn the attention of regional actors, with Mexico, Colombia, and Cuba denouncing the U.S. naval deployment and stating war in Venezuela would bring similar instability seen in the Middle East to South America.

Sources: The Intel Brief, Fox News, CNN, BBC, Colombia One

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

See you Sunday.
— Nick