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This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s begin.

Reporting Period: 16-19 June 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Strikes Between Israel, Iran Continue; U.S. Deploys Assets To Region

Summary
As of 18 June, strikes between Israel and Iran continue. President Trump has called for Iran’s unconditional surrender, and the DoD has redeployed strategic assets to the Middle East. Iran’s Crown Prince in exile has called for a public uprising and regime change. All signs suggest escalation of the conflict is likely.

Findings

• Israeli Strikes (16-19 June): On 17 June, Israel’s Air Force announced that more than 70 Iranian air defense batteries had been destroyed, and that “five waves of attacks” have established Israeli air superiority in Iran.
  Time reported that Major General Shadmani, a senior Iranian commander, was killed on 16 June by IDF strikes shortly after assuming command of Iran’s Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters (Tehran’s emergency military command).
  As of 18 June, at least 8 senior Iranian commanders and an unknown number of junior and middle-grade officers have been killed. At least 9 of Iran’s senior nuclear scientists are dead.

• Iranian Strikes (16-19 June): Iran has launched nearly 1,000 ballistic missiles and drones into Israel since 12 June, with many being intercepted by Israeli air defenses, some of which were exoatmospheric intercepts.
  U.S. forces in Syria also reportedly intercepted 3 projectiles that were fired at their base from Iran.

• President Trump’s Remarks: On 16 June, President Trump departed the G7 Summit in Canada to focus on the conflict.
  On 17 June, Trump stated that both the U.S. and Israel know the Supreme Leader of Iran’s location but have withheld strikes. Trump, who days prior called for peace negotiations, has called for Iran’s unconditional surrender.
  Trump stated that Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons under any circumstances.

• U.S. Assets in the Region: Flight trackers revealed that on 15 June, at least 24 U.S. aerial refueling tankers departed bases across the U.S. en route to Europe. As of 17 June, at least 6 of those tankers departed Germany for Egypt, suggesting the U.S. is building up its strategic forces in the region to support future air operations.
  On 16 June, POLITICO reported that the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier group is being redeployed from the South China Sea to the Middle East.

• Regime Change: On 17 June, Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who has been in exile since the 1979 Revolution, released a statement claiming that “The Islamic Republic has reached its end and is in the process of collapsing.”
  Pahlavi called for a “nationwide uprising,” and that his prospective government is “prepared for the first hundred days after the fall” of the Khamenei regime.

Why This Matters
The continued strikes between Israel and Iran suggest it is very likely that the conflict will continue and escalate. Additionally, the continued strikes suggest nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have totally deteriorated. Despite pressure from EU officials and President Trump’s administration to return to the negotiating table, this is unlikely.

Due to the likelihood of increased hostilities and slim chances for nuclear negotiations, the likelihood of the United States joining the conflict is increased. This is also supported by the deployment of U.S. strategic aircraft, such as tankers and bombers, to the region, as well as the redeployment of the USS Nimitz CSG from the Pacific.

Finally, Crown Prince Pahlavi’s statements indicate a growing opportunity for regime change in Iran. While not a part of Israel’s original stated intentions, the possibility of ousting the Khamenei regime is higher than ever before. The opportunity for regime change may motivate decision-makers in Israel — and the U.S. — to continue operations against Iran.

Sources: Time, The Economist, POLITICO, Newsweek, CNN, Newsweek, CBS News

EU Commission Proposes Plan To Phase Out Russian Energy Imports

Summary
On 17 June, the European Commission published a release stating it had proposed a plan for phasing out Russian energy imports. The plan, if effective, would phase out reliance on Russian energy by the end of 2027.

Findings

• REPowerEU: The proposal follows guidelines issued by the REPowerEU roadmap, a strategy for reforming EU energy imports. It includes phasing out Russian oil, gas, and nuclear energy imports. It also includes “pipeline gas” and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

• Phasing Out Russian Gas: The EU Commission stated the plan for phasing out gas will continue as follows:

  • New contracts for Russian gas imports will be prohibited as of 1 January 2026.

  • Existing short-term contracts will be stopped by 17 June 2026.

  • Exceptions will be made for short-term contracts until the end of 2027. Exceptions are for landlocked countries receiving gas via pipeline (i.e. Slovakia, Hungary).

  • Long-term contracts will be stopped by the end of 2027.

• Phasing Out Russian Oil: The EU Commission did not specify a plan, but stated EU members will need to “prepare diversification plans” to ensure a complete stop by the end of 2027.

Why This Matters
The EU Commission suggests the plan to phase out Russian energy imports will facilitate EU competitiveness and ensure a sustainable transition to “clean energy.” Despite the optimism, Europe is experiencing rising costs and unemployment. The EU Commission has not identified its energy alternatives.

Ursula von der Leyen previously stated that the EU would pursue an LNG deal with the Trump administration, while some in Europe are looking for a return to nuclear energy.

Sources: EU Commission

Russia Disperses Remainder Of Strategic Bomber Force Following Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb

Summary
Following Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb in June, Russia has reportedly relocated the remainder of its strategic bombers and early warning aircraft. The aircraft are reportedly being relocated to more remote airbases in Siberia and Russia’s Far East.

Findings

• Operation Spiderweb: On 1 June, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) launched over 100 first-person-view (FPV) drones from inside Russia using concealed mobile platforms, penetrating up to 4,000km into Russian airspace. Drone swarms utilized LTE network signals and onboard visual navigation to evade electronic warfare and GPS jamming.

  • Strategic Effects: Ukrainian officials claim the operation disabled or destroyed 41 aircraft, including Tu-95MS, Tu-160, Tu-22M3 bombers, and A-50 AWACS. Independent analysts confirm substantial destruction at Engels and Dyagilevo airbases, with satellite imagery indicating at least 20 strategic aircraft were rendered inoperable.

• Russian Reaction: Russia is reportedly repositioning strategic bombers and support aircraft to bases further east and has begun reinforcing base defenses and aircraft shelters. Russian officials acknowledged the attack but downplayed the extent of losses.

• Tactical Innovations: The operation demonstrates the new, modern capacity to deploy inexpensive drone technology against high-value strategic targets. Drones were launched from hidden platforms disguised as wooden huts mounted on civilian trucks, enabling deep penetration without detection.

Why This Matters
Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb redefines the range and impact of new asymmetric war. By exploiting Russia’s airbase vulnerabilities with low-cost, AI-guided drones, Ukraine disrupted a significant portion of Moscow’s long-range aviation fleet. This shift compels Russia to rethink its strategic bomber basing and missile delivery doctrine, potentially weakening its nuclear and conventional deterrence posture in the near term.

It also potentially pressures Russia into negotiations despite Moscow’s continued offensives and increased scale and frequency of drone and missile strikes.

For U.S. and NATO military planners, this operation is a case study in modern hybrid warfare. It underscores the urgent need to invest in layered counter-drone systems, hardened aircraft shelters, and rapid threat detection. Adversaries now have a replicable blueprint for deep-strike operations using commercial-grade UAVs—an emerging threat to global force projection, deterrence architectures, and air domain superiority.

Sources: Al Jazeera, The Guardian, IISS

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading.

If you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me: [email protected]

Nick