Good morning,

This is the Thursday edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s review some geopolitical updates from this week.

Reporting Period: 15-18 September 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

High-Level Russian Officials State Russia, NATO “At War” Amid Drone Incursions, Zapad Exercise

Summary
On 15 September, former Russian president and active chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, wrote on Telegram that the establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine would solidify “war between NATO and Russia.” A day earlier, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov stated that similar but more pointed rhetoric. On 10 September, Russian drones entered Polish and Romanian airspaces, with some being shot down. Additionally, Russia and Belarus have been conducting joint exercise Zapad 2025, as well as hypersonic missile tests.

Findings

• Ongoing Situation: On 12 September, NATO announced the commencement of Eastern Sentry. The Eastern Sentry activity is designed to enhance NATO’s core responsibility to “deter aggression and defend every Ally” in the security pact (The Intel Brief). The activity was created in response to Russia’s 10 September drone incursion into Poland, and the emergency session held following the invocation of NATO Article 4. Recently, at Poland’s request, Western allies have proposed establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and European territories (Newsweek, The Independent). President Trump also demanded that NATO allies cancel all purchases of Russian oil to diminish Moscow’s revenue streams and pressure a peace deal (Fox News). In response, Russia has framed these pressures as steps towards war (Telegram).

  • Kremlin Statement: On 14 September, the senior Kremlin spokesperson stated similar rhetoric (Meduza):

• Zapad and Missile Tests: Russia and Belarus are conducting their “Zapad 2025” exercise, traditionally focused on simulating large-scale offensive operations against NATO (CEPA). Zapad’s activities this year involve joint air and missile defense drills, logistics mobilization, and troop movements along NATO’s eastern frontier, and run from 12 to 16 September (Reuters, European Leaders Network).
  On 14 September, Russia confirmed it had launched a Tsirkon hypersonic cruise missile in the Barents Sea while Russian and Belarusian forces continued Zapad 2025 drills (Reuters).

Why This Matters
There is plenty to be said that Russia’s rhetoric and hybrid warfare strategies are looking to disrupt NATO efforts and aid to Ukraine, and increase the chances of an escalation, but the thing that must be understood most is that Moscow is testing the West’s resolve and response capability.

Additionally, by attempting to discredit the viability of a no-fly zone (as to keep traffic flowing to Russia, as well as goods), the Kremlin is really trying to establish a status quo for the region by which Moscow can prosecute its war in Ukraine, engage how it chooses within its periphery, and still maintain diplomatic and economic relationships with Europe and the United States.

Why? If Russia can establish favorable conditions with the West, the Kremlin feels it will be able to sustain operations in Ukraine and—eventually—diminish aid to Ukraine or witness the West abandon Kyiv entirely. It is a game of political, economic, and deterrence attrition, and Moscow believes it can sustain itself.

Just something to be aware of while mainstream media suggests these things are mere conflict flashpoints.

U.S. Forces Conduct Second Strike On Narcoboat From Venezuela

Summary
On 15 September, U.S. forces struck a second Venezuela-linked narcotics smuggling vessel in international waters, killing three suspected cartel members. The strike follows a 2 September attack on a Tren de Aragua “drug boat” that killed 11 members. These actions come amid a major U.S. naval deployment to the Caribbean. Venezuelan officials condemned the strikes as violations of sovereignty and accused Washington of staging an invasion.

Findings

• Background: On 29 August, the U.S. Navy deployed at least seven warships to the Caribbean near Venezuela. The deployment includes guided-missile destroyers, at least one submarine, and roughly 5,000 personnel, including U.S. Marines (The Intel Brief). On 2 September, President Trump announced that the United States had carried out a precision strike on a “drug boat” in the Caribbean Sea (CNN). Trump stated he gave the order for U.S. assets to strike the vessel, believed to be operated by Tren de Aragua cartel members. The strike reportedly killed 11 cartel members (BBC).

• Second Strike: On 15 September, President Trump confirmed that U.S. forces struck a second “narcoboat” in international waters off the coast of Venezuela, killing three males (USNI News).

• Venezuelan Response: Caracas condemned both strikes, accusing the U.S. of fabricating a counternarcotics mission as cover for “imperialist aggression” (Reuters). The Venezuelan Ministry of Defense labeled the operations “illegal acts of war” and warned of consequences if U.S. forces entered its territorial waters.

• Current Force Posture: USNI News reports that the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group, two guided-missile destroyers, one guided-missile cruiser, one nuclear submarine, and one Littoral Combat Ship are deployed to the Caribbean (USNI News). Various U.S. ground, air, and naval forces are currently conducting exercises and support operations from Puerto Rico (Newsweek).

Why This Matters
The second strike shows the Trump administration’s intention to expand military force against Foreign Terrorist Organizations to help combat some issues that manifest as domestic crises, such as illegal mass migration, trafficking, and the drug trade and drug-related deaths.

It is also in line with the Department of War’s proposed 2025 National Defense Strategy which focuses greater attention and resources on the Homeland and the Western Hemisphere, a decision pundits suggest is Trump’s attempt to adopt historical American policy agendas for his own platform, in this case, the Monroe Doctrine (Department of War, POLITICO).

One of the key concerns is that the U.S. will begin striking cartel locations inside Venezuela, a decision that could lead to direct conflict with the Maduro regime.

Arab-Islamic Summit Held In Qatar Following Israeli Strikes

Summary
On 15 September, Qatar hosted an emergency Arab-Islamic Summit bringing together members of the Arab League and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The summit was convened in response to an Israeli airstrike in Qatar targeting Hamas officials, which Qatar and Arab states regard as a violation of sovereignty and international law. Summit participants discussed diplomatic, security, and strategic responses, including reexamining defense arrangements, U.S. reliability in security guarantees, and possible alternatives or countermeasures.

Findings

• Background: On 9 September, Israel conducted “Operation Summit of Fire,” against Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar (The Times of Israel). Israel conducted the strike due to Hamas leaders convening to discuss a U.S.-backed ceasefire deal (X).

  Hamas reportedly released a statement claiming that “its top leaders survived the assassination attempt” (Al Jazeera).

  The last Arab-Islamic Summit was held in 2023 and was prompted by Hamas’ 7 October attack on Israel and the resultant war in Gaza (Wikipedia).

• Participants: Media coverage claims that officials from the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) convened for the summit, but it is unclear which nations sent participants and which ones declined (The Jerusalem Post).

• Topics: Resolutions drafted condemned Israel’s actions and reportedly called for evaluating alternative security arrangements (The Economist). Due to U.S. forces being deployed in Qatar, members also discussed reevaluating security partnerships with Washington and, instead, entertained approaching Turkey or China (Tactical Report, The Economist).

Why This Matters
While the extraordinary summit is, by itself, not significant (due to nothing really happening besides presenting unified rhetoric), its timely occurrence alongside the UN General Assembly adds some weight to two growing movements:

• The recognition of a Palestinian state

• The political scrutinization of Israel and its partners (which is primarily the United States)

A second goal for the summit has been to pressure the United States to question or reevaluate its relationship with Israel, so long as Washington wants to retain its economic, security, and diplomatic relationship with its Arab partners.

Lastly, while very unlikely, the display of Arab and Islamic unity harkens back to previous conflicts, when Arab coalitions waged war against Israel. At the most basic level, Islamic unity implies that this could happen again if a country’s sovereignty continues to be violated by Israel’s military operations.

End Brief

That concludes this brief.

Thank you for reading!
— Nick