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Thursday Morning Brief (12-15 August)
Imminent war with Iran? Major changes to the UN Security Council? Plus more...
Nick
August 15, 2024
Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.
Good morning,
This is your Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief.
Period: 12-15 August
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. U.S. Navy ship production is at a 25-year low. Manpower shortages and frequent design changes by the Navy have influenced this failure.
2. Rystad Energy says the global rare earth market is shifting away from China. Oversupply has led to domestic investments and tariffs against the Chinese market.
3. The U.S. and Israel say attacks by Iran and its proxies are imminent. The U.S. has naval assets en route to the region.
4. Poland is purchasing $1.23 billion worth of Patriot launchers. They will be manufactured in Poland.
5. The UN Secretary General proposed adding African nations to the permanent members of the Security Council. This would be a historic, unprecedented reform.
U.S. Navy Ship Production At 25-Year Low, Behind China
American shipbuilding is at a 25-year low due to ship design changes, cost overruns, and low manpower. ABC News stated that shipyards nationwide are turning to training academies, technical colleges, and community colleges to fill manpower gaps.
In September 2023, U.S. Navy intelligence estimated that China’s shipbuilding capacity was 200 times greater than ours.
Why This Matters
The U.S. Navy is struggling to balance manpower shortages with high costs and shifting design specifications. The troubles shed doubts on whether or not the Navy can adapt to industry needs, and to make enough ships to deal with Chinese and Russian navies, piracy, and terrorism against commercial vessels near Yemen.
Want To Read More?
Rare Earth Mineral Market Seeing Major Shifts
A report by Rystad Energy states that growing production, Western incentives, and geopolitics are changing the rare earth mineral market.
Rystad Energy says that high demand and product oversupply have allowed geopolitics to play a greater role in the market. The market has been dominated by China, but growing production has allowed countries to look elsewhere for material or to expand domestic production.
1. Rare Earth supply has tripled in the last decade, with 359,000 tons mined last year.
2. China’s dominance is shrinking. Their global production in 2010 was 98% of Rare Earth material. Last year it was 67%. Rystad cites growing Australian and American investments.
Comment: China is attempting to course-correct. Last year they instituted export control of their extraction equipment and technologies.
3. U.S. has a 25% import tariff on Chinese Rare Earth materials beginning in 2026. Supply is outpacing demand, which means the U.S. and our allies have time to pivot our sourcing and invest in our own production.
Why This Matters
Rare Earth materials are essential to energy, defense, automotive, and electronics markets. Rystad expects magnetic rare earth materials to remain principal resource in this market due to their use in energy technologies.
Want To Read More?
The Rystad Report (highly recommend reading this)
U.S. Expects Iranian Attack On Israel In The Coming Days
On 12 August, White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby stated there is increasing likelihood that Iran and its proxies will conduct coordinated strikes against Israel. Israeli officials believe Hezbollah will conduct strikes from Lebanon first.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that Iran and its proxies will conduct large-scale drone and missile barrages against Israel.
Why This Matters
U.S. officials are in Egypt to discuss de-escalation and avoid a regional conflict. Many are surprised that Iran has not retaliated yet.
The U.S. is sending the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, on its way from the Pacific, and a ballistic missile submarine to prepare for a protracted conflict.
Want To Read More?
Report on Iranian activity by ISW
Coverage by Naval News
Poland Purchases $1.23 Billion of Patriot Air Defense Launchers
On 12 August, Poland signed a $1.23 billion contract with Raytheon to purchase 48 M903 missile launchers. The launchers will be manufactured in Poland. There are no details as to when the launchers will begin or finish delivery.
Why This Matters
The purchase is a part of Poland’s renewed defense growth which has persisted since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. This year, Poland’s defense spending has approached 4% of its GDP, which makes Poland one of NATO’s highest spending European member.
As for the launcher, the M903 is the firing device on Patriot. The launcher can carry 12 individual PAC-3 hit-to-kill missile cannisters. That means if Poland is purchasing 48 launchers, the capability exists for 576 PAC-3 missiles to be at-the-ready.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Reuters
The Patriot systems by Lockheed Martin
UN Secretary General Calls For Permanent African Seat At Security Council
On 12 August, the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called for reform on the Security Council and proposed the addition of at least one permanent African member and a larger allocation of elected seats.
Guterres feels that Africa’s geopolitical importance requires greater security engagement to ensure global peace.
Why This Matters
The UN Security Council’s goal is to maintain international peace and security. The council has 15 members, 5 of which are permanent (China, France, Russia, UK, US). Every two years, other members are voted into the council based on regional allocation:
3 seats for Africa
2 seats for Asia-Pacific
2 seats for Latin America and the Caribbean
2 seats for Western European and Other states
1 seat for Eastern Europe
The 5 permanent members hold an exclusive veto power. For the Security Council to mobilize UN forces into a conflict, it requires approval from all veto members.
Guterres’ suggestion is to modernize the current “colonial structure” of the UN, but the five members are really there due to being early nuclear powers. With Russia and China holding permanent membership, there is rarely consensus on the council. Expanding permanent membership might add to the supranational inefficiencies of the UN.
Want To Read More?
End Brief
This concludes your Thursday morning brief. Thanks for reading.
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See you on Sunday!
Nick