Good morning,

This is the Thursday morning edition of The Intel Brief, where I update professionals on the major geopolitical updates from the week. Let’s begin.

Reporting Period: 12-15 May 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Trump’s Middle East Tour: Deals Secure $600 Billion From Saudis, $1.2 Trillion From Qatar; Not Visiting Israel

Summary
On 13 May, President Trump signed a $600 billion strategic economic partnership with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, marking the largest bilateral economic agreement in U.S. history. On 14 May, Trump’s visit to Qatar yielded an additional $1.2 trillion in trade and defense agreements, including the largest-ever U.S. commercial aircraft sale. Trump will conclude his Middle East tour with a stop in the UAE. Notably, Israel was excluded from the itinerary.

Findings

• Record-Setting Arms Deal: The agreement includes a $142 billion defense package — the largest ever — involving advanced U.S. military platforms and services from over a dozen defense contractors. This signals deepened strategic alignment on security concerns, especially regarding Iran and regional counterterrorism.

• Massive Investment in U.S. Economy: Saudi Arabia committed to $600 billion in investments, with significant deals such as:

  • $20 billion from Saudi DataVolt for U.S.-based AI data centers.

  • $80 billion into transformative technology firms, including Google and Oracle.

  • Billions allocated to U.S.-led infrastructure and mining projects.
    The White House claims the deal could generate up to 2 million American jobs.

• Energy and Space Cooperation: The partnership also outlines long-term joint ventures in energy transition and space exploration, signaling diversification beyond hydrocarbons.

• Nuclear Deal Likely: Following the deal, political futures markets (via Polymarket) raised the likelihood of a U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear deal to 65% before July 2025. Saudi ambitions for domestic nuclear energy and Trump’s transactional diplomacy make such a deal plausible despite nonproliferation concerns.

• Qatar Agreements: On 14 May, Trump signed various deals with Qatar, including:

  • The largest-ever U.S. aircraft sale: up to 210 Boeing 787 and 777X jets to Qatar Airways, with GE Aerospace engines (White House value: $96 billion).

  • $1 billion Raytheon deal for advanced counter-drone systems.

  • $2 billion sale of MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones from General Atomics.

  • $1 billion Qatari investment in U.S. quantum technology startups via Al Rabban Capital.
    The White House called the agreements “landmark” and projected they would fuel U.S. innovation for “generations.”

• Strategic Messaging and Optics: Trump’s delegation included high-profile U.S. business leaders—Elon Musk, Larry Fink, and Sam Altman—highlighting his business-first foreign policy style.
  Notably, Trump skipped Israel on this tour, an unusual decision given the historical U.S.-Israel alliance.

Why This Matters
Trump’s Middle East visit marks a decisive shift in U.S. foreign policy due to Trump’s transactional diplomacy, a method of leveraging U.S. economic power to secure unprecedented foreign investment and defense cooperation by establishing or growing American interest in regions and markets abroad.

The scale of Saudi and Qatari commitments—totaling $1.8 trillion—signals a deepening of U.S. influence in the Gulf at a time when China and Russia are actively courting regional partnerships. While the deals may enhance U.S. military-industrial strength and energy resilience, they also carry geopolitical risk.

A U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal could upend nonproliferation norms and provoke Iran, while skipping Israel may disrupt traditional alliance dynamics and domestic political support. Trump’s strategy suggests there is a rapid recalibration of America’s posture in the Middle East — centered on monetary growth, energy output, emerging technologies, and political realism rather than precedent-based diplomacy.

As a sidenote, one thing I find interesting is the lack of commentary on Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s previous or ongoing support for terrorist activity and proxy groups across the region.

Sources: The White House, CNBC, The White House, Fox Business

Zelenskyy, Putin Scheduled To Meet In Turkey Today Despite Russian Ambiguity

Summary
On 11 May, Russian President Putin rejected Ukraine’s call for a 30-day ceasefire. Instead, Putin invited Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to attend direct negotiations to end the war in Turkey on Thursday, 15 May. Despite offering the invitation, it is uncertain if Putin will attend the meeting. Zelesnkyy has called for a 30-day ceasefire, President Trump stated he would attend the talks in Turkey, and the EU has threatened greater sanctions on Russia if the meeting does not occur.

Findings

• Background: On 8 May, Putin proposed direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkey, after European leaders threatened to implement new sanctions on Russia if the Kremlin failed to adhere to a 30-day ceasefire that began on Monday, 12 May.

• Zelenskyy’s Offer: On 11 May, Zelenskyy quickly accepted Putin’s offer to meet in Istanbul, Turkey, to advance high-level negotiations. The meeting is proposed for today (Thursday, 15 May).

• Putin’s Response: Despite making the initial offer, Putin or the Kremlin has not acknowledged Zelenskyy’s response. Russia’s intention remains ambiguous. One Ukrainian lawmaker believes Russia did not intend for Zelenskyy’s acceptance and offer to attend personally:

• Trump’s Response: President Trump initially pressured Russia and Ukraine to enter direct negotiations. Reports suggest Trump helped pressure Zelenskyy into accepting the offer and to attend the negotiations himself.
  President Trump has stated he would attend the negotiations if offered. Trump is currently on a diplomatic tour of the Middle East.

• EU Pressure: The EU, led by the UK, France, and Germany, initially threatened to implement new economic sanctions on Russia — the move that pressured Putin into offering negotiations in Turkey — if the 30-day ceasefire was not adhered to.
  On 14 May, President of the EU Commission Ursula von der Leyen announced the 17th sanctions package against Russia.

Why This Matters
The possibility of Russia and Ukraine entering direct negotiations, let alone between Putin and Zelenskyy, is a big deal. Both sides have not engaged in direct negotiations since March 2022 (which were also in Istanbul, Turkey).

The incident, the results of which will be revealed today, is significant because it will reveal a lot about Russia’s true intentions. Many in the West have grown to believe Russia’s previous negotiations and high-level discussions have orchestrated distractions; that Russia merely presented the appearance of wanting to end the war while using diplomacy as a tool to slow and confuse Ukrainian decision-making on the battlefield.

I would estimate that Putin will not attend the meeting for various reasons, but Trump wanting to attend being the most significant. I think Russia ultimately wants to enter negotiations with Ukraine alone, in order to compel Russian interests upon a desperate Ukraine, and with no outsider supporters to fall back on.

Sources: Sky News, Sky News, France 24, The Kyiv Independent, Reuters, Sky News, Euractiv

Poland Uncovers Previous Russian Hybrid Warfare Operations, Moves To Close Russian Consulate

Summary
On 11 May, Polish Prime Minister Tusk confirmed that Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service had committed arson in 2024. The fire, which burned down a large shopping center in Krakow, is now being considered a hybrid warfare operation. Poland is closing a Russian consulate and expelling the Russian officials there as a result.

Findings

• Background: On 12 May 2024, a fire erupted at the Marywilska 44 shopping center in Warsaw, Poland. Original reporting suggested 80% of the shopping center was destroyed. The center originally housed 1,400 shops and outlets.

• Investigation: Poland’s law enforcement and intelligence apparatus conducted an investigation of the fire and concluded that Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) started the fire.
  According to AP News, Poland’s national prosecutor’s office charged two Ukrainian citizens who were involved in the arson attack. They have been identified as Daniil B and Oleksander V.

• Prime Minister Tusk: On 11 May, Polish PM Tusk announced that Russia’s SVR was responsible for the arson attack, with some perpetrators having been arrested.

• Russian Consulates: Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski stated he had summoned the Russian Ambassador and was ordering the Russian Consulate in Krakow to be closed. In 2024, one Russian Consulate in Poznan was closed due to sabotage efforts.
  After the consulate in Krakow is closed, Russia will retain one consulate in Gdansk.

Why This Matters
Poland’s attribution of the 2024 arson attack to Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) confirms long-standing warnings by both NATO and the European Union that Russia would escalate hybrid warfare operations across Europe. In late 2024, NATO and EU leaders issued joint alerts about a rise in Russian sabotage, cyberattacks, and disinformation campaigns aimed at destabilizing member states and undermining public trust in democratic institutions. The use of arson on Polish civilian infrastructure—executed via proxy actors—demonstrates a clear evolution in Moscow’s tactics, moving from digital and informational warfare to kinetic sabotage within NATO borders.

Poland’s decision to expel Russian diplomats and close another consulate reflects a growing European consensus that diplomatic channels are being exploited for hostile intelligence operations. This incident not only raises security concerns in frontline states like Poland but also compels NATO and EU members to reconsider the threshold for collective responses to sub-threshold aggression. If unchecked, such attacks risk normalizing hybrid warfare as a persistent feature of the European security environment.

Sources: BBC, AP News, AP News, DW

Pentagon Expands Efforts To Integrate Commercial Space Assets Into National Defense Space Architecture

Summary
On 12 May, the Pentagon announced it had selected 12 more companies to support the development of a space-based data transportation network. The development expands the Pentagon’s existing efforts, a project aimed at integrating commercial space assets into the DOD’s National Defense Space Architecture (NDSA), a program run by the Space Development Agency (SDA). The program seeks to enhance resilient, low-latency global communications across military domains.

Findings

• New Additions: The 12 new firms join the Space Force’s Commercial Augmentation Space Reserve (CASR) initiative and will work under the SDA’s proliferated satellite transport layer. Companies selected include Capella Space, EdgeCortix, Eutelsat America Corp, OneWeb Technologies, Fairwinds Technologies and AST Space Mobile, Illumina Computing Group, Lockheed Martin Space, MapLarge, SES Space & Defense, Skycorp, SkyFi, Ursa Space, and Viasat.
  In 2022, eight firms (including Amazon, Anduril, Google, Palantir, and Microsoft) were the first commercial additions to the program.

• Mission Goals: These firms will demonstrate interoperability between commercial satellite constellations and the U.S. military’s mesh network of data transport satellites. The SDA is particularly focused on ensuring resilient, jam-resistant communications that can operate in contested environments and supplement government-owned infrastructure.

• Operational Scope: The demonstrations will inform future acquisition strategies for the SDA's Transport Layer Tranche 2 and Tranche 3, which aim to deploy hundreds of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. The network is designed to support data relay for missile warning, targeting, and battlefield connectivity.

• Strategic Context: This expansion follows DoD’s 2023 and 2024 efforts to diversify its space architecture by blending commercial innovation with military-grade security. Pentagon officials emphasize the need for a hybrid space architecture to outpace threats posed by Chinese and Russian counterspace capabilities.

Why This Matters
The Pentagon’s decision to bring in 12 additional commercial space providers underscores a fundamental shift toward a hybrid military-commercial space model. By leveraging the agility, scale, and cost-efficiency of the private sector, the U.S. aims to build a globally resilient communications network capable of surviving peer conflict. The inclusion of firms like SpaceX and Amazon indicates that commercial LEO mega-constellations are now integral to U.S. national defense planning. This development has implications for great power competition in space, as it enables faster kill chains, improved joint force connectivity, and expanded global reach—all critical in a future fight against technologically advanced adversaries.

Sources: Space News, Defense News

End Brief

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Nick