Good morning,

This is the Thursday premium edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s get you up to speed on the major geopolitical updates from this week.

Reporting Period: 11-14 August 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Trump And Putin To Meet In Alaska; Discuss Peace And War In Ukraine

Summary
Tomorrow, 15 August, President Trump and President Putin are meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss the possibility of peace between Russia and Ukraine. Trump states that if a deal is not met, Russia will face severe consequences. European leaders, including President Zelenskyy, held a virtual meeting with Trump to coordinate their position.

Findings

• Background: President Trump had threatened to implement new tariffs and sanctions on Russia if a ceasefire was not reached between Moscow and Kyiv by 8 August. On 7 August, U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff traveled to Russia and met with Putin in Moscow. At the “constructive” meeting, the pair planned initial details for a meeting between Trump and Putin. Shortly after, the Kremlin and the White House confirmed the meeting in Alaska. No additional tariffs or sanctions have been implemented, suggesting Trump could be using them as a negotiating tool.

• Coordination: In anticipation of Ukrainian and EU absence from the Alaska meeting, President Zelenskyy flew to Berlin, Germany, on 13 August to attend a virtual meeting between EU leaders, NATO officials, and President Trump. The meeting was to get “everyone on the same page.”

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• Ongoing Commentary: The official agenda for the meeting is uncertain. Early reporting suggests Trump will hear Putin’s demands and interests regarding Russia’s goals in Ukraine. Trump previously stated that a peace deal would necessitate “land swapping,” but also stated, “We’re going to try to get some of that territory back for Ukraine.”
  President Zelenskyy has rejected the idea of ceding territory to Russia despite dwindling manpower and munitions stockpiles.
  For Russia, I previously assessed that Moscow would use the negotiations as an opportunity to expand the bilateral Russo-American relationship, a goal Russian media has promoted. This suggests that while Putin is likely to present criteria for peace to Trump, these initial negotiations will not yield a ceasefire.
  El Mundo reported that after the Kremlin announced the Alaska meeting, Putin called Xi Jinping, implying strategic cooperation.

  • EU and NATO: Various European leaders have endorsed Trump’s efforts to progress peace negotiations. In a statement, those European leaders offered diplomatic support in ending the war, but also committed to providing Ukraine continued military and financial support.
    On 10 August, Kaja Kallas (EU Commission Vice President and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy) stated that any deal to end the war must include representatives from Ukraine and the European Union.
    The EU and NATO support inviting President Zelenskyy to the talks in Alaska, as does the White House.

Why This Matters
It is difficult to assess the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin because of the variance in possible outcomes.

• President Trump stated that a peace deal will necessitate an exchange of territories, implying that both Ukraine and Russia may lose control over regions. While Ukraine is more likely to lose territory, Trump stated he would try to retain some.
  On 13 August, speaking at The Kennedy Center, President Trump stated that “There will be very severe consequences” if Putin does not agree to stop the war at the Alaska meeting.

• The EU and NATO want to reach a diplomatic peace in which Ukraine does not lose territory and is free to pursue EU and NATO accession. Based on Russian demands and even support within those groups, this is unlikely. Zelesnkyy’s position is roughly equivalent to the EU’s. He wants the freedom to pursue European integration while retaining Ukraine’s full territory.

• Putin wants to absorb the territories Russia controls in Ukraine, demilitarize Kyiv, block Ukraine’s NATO and EU accession, and begin resetting diplomatic and economic relations with the West. Western media and EU officials suggest that Putin is attending the meeting for a photograph with Trump; that the meeting is a tool for narrative building, improving soft power, and delaying new sanctions and tariffs.

Sources: European Union, Reuters, NPR, POLITICO, BBC, Interfax, Reuters, Trading View, CNBC, El Mundo

U.S. Designates Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) As FTO

Summary
On 11 August, the U.S. Department of State announced it has designated the BLA as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). The designation is extended to its unconventional operations wing known as the Majeed Brigade. The designation follows a U.S.-Pakistani trade agreement.

Findings

• Background: Officially formed in 2000, the BLA is believed to be a resurgence of the Independent Balochistan Movement (1973-1977). One source claims the movement was originally organized and funded by Russia’s KGB intelligence service, but capitulated following the USSR’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. The group reformed in 2000 with the goal of seceding Balochistan from Pakistan.
  The BLA was previously designated as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) group in 2019 after a spree of terrorist attacks.

BLA propaganda on X:

• Declaration: On 11 August, Secretary of State Rubio announced that the BLA and Majeed Brigade is now designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization under Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act, as well as Executive Order 13224.
  Rubio’s statement cited terrorist attacks since 2019, the most recent being a March 2025 train hijacking that killed 31 civilians and security personnel.

Why This Matters
Given American withdrawals from the region, it is right to question why the U.S. is just now designating the BLA as an FTO.

As DW pointed out, the U.S. and Pakistan recently signed a trade agreement that includes investments and cooperation to develop Pakistan’s natural resource extraction. Field Marshal Munir, the chief of Pakistan’s Army, also visited Washington, D.C. to meet with officials and counterparts.

It is likely that as Pakistan looks to grow its natural resources stockpile for domestic use and export, the U.S. is preparing the legal framework to establish an intelligence sharing and joint operations framework against the BLA.

From a strategic perspective, this is particularly relevant given China’s growing influence and investment in the region via Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Sources: U.S. Department of State, News Central Asia, DW

E3 Planning Sanctions On Iran If Nuclear Deal Falls Through

Summary
On 13 August, the E3 (UK, Germany, and France) notified the United Nations of their intent to implement “snapback” sanctions on Iran if it does not return to nuclear negotiations by the end of August. The warning was issued due to nuclear talks having stalled and Tehran’s continuation of uranium enrichment.

Findings

• Negotiation Deadline: The E3 has extended the deadline for talks until the end of August 2025. If Iran does not resume discussions, the E3 will trigger the UN snapback mechanism to restore sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal.

• Iran’s Position: Iranian officials have warned they will withdraw from the nuclear deal entirely if new sanctions are imposed, insisting sanctions relief and recognition of its right to a civilian nuclear program are preconditions for further talks.

• Escalating Nuclear Activity: The IAEA reported in May that Iran possesses over 400kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity—near weapons-grade levels. Iran suspended cooperation with the IAEA in June after Israeli and U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities (Operation Midnight Hammer and the “12-Day Conflict”).

Why This Matters
This is an interesting effort by the E3, and seems more like a delaying action rather than a genuine diplomatic effort. Why?

• On one hand, a new nuclear deal will lack any substantial enforcement measures, as the UN’s IAEA reported violations of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran Nuclear Deal) on a regular basis.

• Iran will continue to expand its nuclear program and uranium enrichment regardless of a deal, which means Tehran is vulnerable to future strikes. Under this assumption, it is likely that Iran is preparing for a regional conflict.

That is even if a deal is reached. If not, and sanctions are implemented, the strain on Iran’s economy is likely to deteriorate diplomatic relations with the West and further strain the region due to increased proxy activities and the continuation of illicit oil trade.

Domestically, the Khamenei regime’s insistence on nuclearization, continued proxy conflict, and alignment with the multipolar powers risk increasing civil discord. Remember, all these things increase the likelihood of external actors — like Israel and the U.S. — forcefully intervening in Iran. This could pressure mass protests and ultimately, regime change.

Sources: BBC

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

See you Sunday.
— Nick