Good morning,

Let’s look at some relevant geopolitical updates from this week, starting with your BLUF summary.

Reporting Period: 1-4 September 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

TODAY: Trump, Zelenskyy, European Leaders To Meet In Paris For Ukraine Talks

Summary
Today, 4 September, French President Macron and UK Prime Minister Starmer are hosting President Trump, President Zelenskyy, and other European officials in Paris, France. According to early reporting, the meeting will focus on Russia’s refusal to advance peace talks and diplomacy, and how to provide security guarantees to Ukraine.

Findings

• Coalition of the Willing: At the “White House Multilateral Meeting on Ukraine” on 18 August, EU Commission President declared the emergency summit an event of the Coalition of the Willing. Related to the Russo-Ukrainian War, the coalition informally includes 31 nations, most of which are European.

• Before the Meeting: On 1 September, CBS News reported that European leaders were constructing “precise plans” for troop deployments to Ukraine as a way of guaranteeing Kyiv its sovereignty. President Trump stated that the U.S. would not deploy troops to Ukraine, but that American personnel would have a “presence” in the region.
  This plan may be finalized at the meeting in Paris today.

• Paris Meeting: Today, 4 September, members of the Coalition of the Willing are meeting in Paris to discuss Russia’s two-faced diplomacy, how and when to establish a peace negotiation, and how to define and provide security guarantees for Ukraine. Additionally, the group will discuss “consequences,” such as sanctions, for Russia’s two-faced diplomacy efforts (i.e. Russia takes advantage of high-profile diplomatic meetings but does not make progress after the fact, nor does Moscow pursue reasonable bilateral diplomacy with Ukraine or the EU).

• Attendance: The following officials or heads of state will attend the meeting in Paris today:

  • President Trump (🇺🇸) , President Zelenskyy (🇺🇦), President Macron (🇫🇷), Prime Minister Starmer (🇬🇧), Secretary General Rutte (NATO), Chancellor Merz (🇩🇪), President von der Leyen (🇪🇺)

Why This Matters
The Paris summit represents the most visible effort yet to formalize a transatlantic framework for Ukraine’s long-term security outside of NATO membership (which Russia says is unacceptable). With European leaders exploring troop deployments and the United States signaling a more limited “regional presence,” the meeting highlights both urgency and lingering fractures within the Western camp.

The talks also reveal the high stakes of managing Russia’s two-faced diplomacy, as Moscow continues to exploit negotiations while preparing for prolonged conflict. How security guarantees are defined in Paris will shape not only Ukraine’s survival, but also the credibility of Western deterrence and the future of collective defense in Europe.

Depending on what the leaders announce today, the result of the Paris summit is also likely to impact the likelihood of peace negotiations happening. Right now, it is my estimate that the most likely way to resume peace negotiations is for Trump to set up a “Trilat” between him, Putin, and Zelenskyy.

Sources: The Guardian, Ground News, UNN, CBS News

EU Commission President Tours Southern And Eastern Member States

Summary
From 28 to 31 August, EU Commission President von der Leyen visited heads of state in the European Union’s southern and eastern member states. Her tour included stops in Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Romania. While it is uncertain what von der Leyen discussed on bilateral levels, her speeches highlighted progress being made on European defense, industry, and diplomatic fronts, especially in regards to support for Ukraine and long-term deterrence against Russia and Belarus.

Findings

• Tour of Eastern and Southern Europe: From 28 to 31 August, EU Commission President von der Leyen conducted a tour of eastern and southern EU members states. Her visits included Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Romania.
  In each visit, she highlighted some common trends:

  • Gratitude for support and defense procurement through the SAFE initiative

  • Bilateral defense investment (von der Leyen only vaguely suggested these efforts were in support of Readiness 2030 and not new NATO spending targets)

  • Acting as Europe’s frontline buffer and first-line deterrent (especially Poland)

  • Continued support for Ukraine and defense industrial expansion in the face of Russian aggression

  Von der Leyen’s visit to Bulgaria was particularly symbolic due to Sofia adopting the Euro as its official currency on 1 January 2026. Much of von der Leyen’s presidency has focused on building deeper integration with the EU’s eastern and southern regions.

• Visit to Bulgaria: On 30 August, von der Leyen visited the VMZ arms factory in Sopot, Bulgaria. She later praised Bulgaria’s commitment to providing Ukraine military aid, especially ammunition. On 31 August, in a speech alongside Bulgarian Prime Minister Zhelyazkov, the two announced plans for EU defense funding through the SAFE Instrument as well as plans to expand the VMZ arms factory.
  Von der Leyen also subtly implied that Ukraine will be an EU member despite Russia’s opposition to Kyiv’s accession into NATO or the EU.

  • Anti-EU Demonstration: On her 30 August visit to the VMZ facility in Sopot, protestors with ultranationalist affiliations tried to block von der Leyen’s motorcade.

• Electronic Attack: On 31 August, von der Leyen’s aircraft is believed to have been targeted by electronic jamming, which caused instrument and navigational malfunctions. Reporting suggests that a Russian R-330Zh “Zhitel” electronic warfare communication system conducted the jamming.

Why This Matters
Von der Leyen’s tour underscores the European Union’s shift toward treating its eastern and southern members not just as periphery states, but as critical pillars of European defense and integration. Her emphasis on Ukraine’s eventual accession, coupled with investment in local defense industries, signals Brussels’ intent to deepen long-term deterrence against Russia while reducing reliance on NATO frameworks alone.

At the same time, domestic protests in Bulgaria reveal how nationalist movements may exploit EU integration and defense commitments to stir internal instability. Not everyone in the EU supports the organization, with many growing to resent the supranationalist institutions, and Brussels’ detachment from realities elsewhere on the continent. These dynamics illustrate that Europe’s frontline states are both the Union’s strongest assets and most vulnerable pressure points in the evolving confrontation with Russia and Belarus.

Sources: The Guardian, Euronews, CBS News, European Commission, European Union, European Commission

Leaders Gather For SCO Summit In Tianjin, China

Summary
From 31 August to 1 September, the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit convened in Tianjin, China. A central theme was the promotion of a multipolar world order and a strong condemnation of what China and Russia described as "Cold War mentality" and "bullying behavior" by the West. The summit concluded with the adoption of the Tianjin Declaration and several key documents, including a new development strategy for the organization until 2035. Members and partners committed to coordination on some concepts, such as AI, a development bank, and multilateral governance.

Findings

• Background: The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan as a regional security bloc. Originally focused on counterterrorism and border security in Central Asia, the SCO has since expanded its scope to include economic cooperation, infrastructure development, and energy security. It now represents over 40% of the world’s population and more than 30% of global GDP, with India, Pakistan, and Iran as full members and several countries—including Turkey and Saudi Arabia—holding observer or dialogue partner status. While the SCO lacks the institutional coherence of NATO or the EU, it serves as a key platform for China and Russia to project influence across Eurasia and advance a multipolar world order.

• Scale and Scope: The SCO Summit saw unprecedented attendance, with over 20 national leaders present.
  The significant attendees:

• Economic and Financial Integration: The summit underscored the SCO's evolution from a regional security bloc to a multi-dimensional platform for economic and political cooperation. Leaders agreed to establish an SCO Development Bank to fund infrastructure and development projects across member states. This move is a clear effort to reduce reliance on Western financial institutions.
  Russia also confirmed plans for the Power of Siberia and Power of Siberia 2 pipelines, which will help expand Russia’s energy-based revenue stream. Additionally, expansion to the Russia-India-Iran Corridor will allow the block to bypass Western sanctions and naval enforcement.

• Security and Geopolitical Alignment: The Tianjin Declaration included a strong condemnation of the military strikes by the U.S. and Israel on Iran in June 2025. It reaffirmed a shared commitment to combating terrorism, separatism, and extremism without "double standards." A joint declaration was adopted to condemn recent terrorist attacks in both India and Pakistan.
  At the summit, both India and China committed to resolving border disputes, while Russia attempted to frame its invasion of Ukraine as a justified response to the Western-led global order and expansionism.

• Bilateral Diplomacy: India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where he reiterated India's opposition to projects that violate sovereignty and territorial integrity, a veiled reference to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Pakistan. Indian and Russian leaders also showed a strong rapport, with Prime Minister Modi and Russian President Putin sharing a car ride and engaging in extensive bilateral talks on the sidelines of the summit.

Why This Matters
The 2025 SCO Summit solidified the growing bloc—alongside BRICS—as a leading diplomatic, informational, military, and economic organization for the emerging multipolar world. The decisions, particularly the proposal for an SCO bank, represent significant efforts by the bloc to establish alternatives to Western institutions. The SCO is quickly becoming Eurasia’s greatest geopolitical driver.

The SCO's growing influence and membership, which now includes 27 countries in various capacities, strengthens the strategic alignment of China, Russia, and Iran. While internal frictions persist—notably between India and China—the members found common ground on security, economic development, and opposition to Western foreign policy. Such developments suggest the United States and its partners may not be offering enticing economic, security, or diplomatic cooperation.

One of the fascinating things about the SCO—in part due to Russia’s and China’s ability to bring people to the diplomatic table—is that many of the members have old conflicts, recent conflicts, on ongoing conflicts (even with each other). This is simply to suggest that the U.S. should formulate a way to compete against the growing bloc.

Sources: AP News, CNN, NBC News, AP News, CNN, Reuters

Iran Proposes Adherence To 2015 JCPOA If All Parties Return To The Deal

Summary
On 3 September, Iran reaffirmed its commitment to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), contingent upon full compliance by all signatories. Iran's Foreign Ministry emphasized that if all parties return to the agreement, Iran will reciprocate by resuming its obligations. This statement comes amid escalating tensions and the reimposition of UN sanctions by the European Union.

Findings

• Iran's Proposal: Iran maintains that its return to full compliance with the JCPOA is conditional upon the United States and other signatories lifting sanctions and adhering to their commitments under the agreement. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated, "If everyone returns to the JCPOA, we will do so as well," highlighting the reciprocal nature of their compliance.

• Snapback Sanctions: In late August, officials from the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) countries initiated the "snapback" mechanism, leading to the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran due to Tehran’s noncompliance with the 2015 JCPOA and failing to reach a new nuclear agreement. These sanctions include arms embargoes, restrictions on uranium enrichment, travel bans on Iranian individuals, and inspections of Iranian cargo. The European trio has proposed extending the snapback timeline if negotiations for a new deal progress.

• Diplomatic Efforts: Indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States, mediated by Oman and Italy, commenced in April 2025. The talks aimed to address Iran's nuclear program, specifically uranium enrichment levels. Talks broke down and have not reconvened following the United States conducting Operation Midnight Hammer—the naval and air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Why This Matters
Iran's enrichment of uranium up to 60%, nearing weapons-grade levels, raises concerns about nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. The resumption of full compliance with the JCPOA could mitigate these risks, but is unlikely. Iran previously failed International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections on a regular basis and has given no indication that it would dismantle its nuclear program.

Both Iranian President Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that Iran would not give up its nuclear program.

Iran’s main interests are to lift sanctions (particularly related to energy exports) and restore some economic stability to the country, while simultaneously safeguarding the nation (and the regime) from further U.S. or Israeli strikes. Even if a return to the JCPOA were possible, Iran’s likelihood of noncompliance—while continuing to fund terrorism in the region—would leave Tehran vulnerable to the sanctions and strikes it is claiming to avoid.

Sources: IRNA News Agency, Reuters

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

— Nick