Pacific Weekly #89
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Reporting Period: February 23 - March 1, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. Tensions between China and the Philippines remain elevated as Chinese maritime forces continue sustained gray-zone operations across contested areas in the South China Sea. A February 23 report found record-high deployments of China’s Maritime Militia in 2025 in addition to a persistent Chinese Coast Guard presence. Recent incidents include reported signal jamming near Scarborough Shoal, competing sovereignty claims and vessel confrontations, electronic interference near Thitu Island, and ongoing Philippine infrastructure upgrades.
2. The United States has begun major military exercises with partners in the Indo-Pacific. In Japan, exercise Iron Fist is ongoing in Okinawa, with US Marines and sailors conducting amphibious operations and island defense drills with Japanese counterparts. In Thailand, the US has a leading role in Cobra Gold, an exercise that brings more than 8,000 personnel from 30 nations together for multinational training.
Tensions Remain High Between China, Philippines Over Contested Islands
Summary
Tensions between China and the Philippines remain elevated as Chinese maritime forces continue sustained gray-zone operations across contested areas in the South China Sea. A February 23 report found record-high deployments of China’s Maritime Militia in 2025 in addition to a persistent Chinese Coast Guard presence. Recent incidents include reported signal jamming near Scarborough Shoal, competing sovereignty claims and vessel confrontations, electronic interference near Thitu Island, and ongoing Philippine infrastructure upgrades.
Findings and Analysis
AMTI Report: On February 23, the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published a report that details how China deploys and tasks the Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM) (ATMI). The report claims that the CMM, which is made of professional militia and civilian fishermen, “deployed in record-high numbers across the South China Sea in 2025” (ATMI). AMTI reports that it counted a daily average of 241 CMM vessels in 2025 (AMTI). AMTI’s report also details that the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) patrols and incursions in 2025 resembled 2024 numbers “with a slightly higher overall presence” (AMTI).
Comment: Recently, various Chinese incursions, encounters, or gray zone activities have occurred in the South China Sea, particularly against the Philippines and its outlying islands. These recent incidents suggest that CMM and CCG will continue their policy of incursion and Salami Slicing in order to improve legal and narrative claims over contested islands, and degrade adversary response capabilities:
Scarborough Shoal: On February 23, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) stated that PCG and Philippine fishing vessels experienced (and reported) signal jamming while operating/fishing near the Scarborough Shoal (ABS CBN, Inquirer). Specifically, a PCG spokesman stated that PCG vessels experienced signal loss to Starlink units within 24 nm of Scarborough Shoal, indicating China’s ability and willingness to jam or disrupt Starlink services (ABS CBN, Inquirer).
On February 25, Chinese state media outlet Xinhua reported that the CCG had “drove away Philippine vessels that illegally intruded into China’s territorial waters off Huangyan Dao (Scarborough Shoal) (Xinhua). Note China’s claim that the island, well within Philippine territorial waters, belongs to China, and that Philippine presence there is “illegal.”
Thitu Island: On February 23, Philippine officials visited Thitu Island, “the country’s most strategically important outpost” in the South China Sea (Taipei Times). Various news outlets report that when the delegation arrived on the island, their “phones lit up with a roaming alert: ‘Welcome to CHINA.’” (Taipei Times, Reuters). A day before, Philippine state-controlled media posted about developments underway on the island, including a “runway extension and upgrade” (PTV).
Joint Patrols: On February 24, The Manila Times reported that PCG and CCG vessels could “enter into an agreement in March” to conduct joint patrols in the South China Sea (The Manila Times).
Comment: It is uncertain how likely this is, given the recent jamming and ship encounters. Additionally, recent US strikes on Iran could have China re-evaluating the deployment of some of its assets, which could delay or cancel this type of cooperation. Additionally, Philippine decisionmakers should be wary of joint patrols due to the potential for China to weaponize the narrative and enhance its claims on contested islands.
Japanese Radar: Recognizing the Philippines’ perpetual struggle to patrol its waters and enforce its sovereignty over outlying islands, Japan has donated five coastal radar systems to the Philippine Navy (Naval News, Zona Militar).
US Launches Exercises With Japan, Thailand
Summary
The United States has begun major military exercises with partners in the Indo-Pacific. In Japan, exercise Iron Fist is ongoing in Okinawa, with US Marines and sailors conducting amphibious operations and island defense drills with Japanese counterparts. In Thailand, the US has a leading role in Cobra Gold, an exercise that brings more than 8,000 personnel from 30 nations together for multinational training.
Findings and Analysis
Iron Fist 26: On February 23, US Marines, US sailors, and their Japanese Ground Self-Defense Force counterparts launched exercise Iron Fist (Stars and Stripes). Exercise Iron Fist is taking place on Okinawa, Japan’s southernmost prefecture (Stars and Stripes). The exercise includes “maritime maneuvers, landing operations and ground combat exercises,” all focused on amphibious capabilities and island defense (Stars and Stripes). The exercise will conclude on March 9, 2026 (Stars and Stripes).
Brigadier General Hoyle (left) shakes hands with Major General Musha (right) during the opening ceremony for exercise Iron Fist at Camp Hansen, Okinawa, Japan.
Cobra Gold 26: On February 24, the United States, Thailand, and representatives from 30 participating countries convened for the opening ceremony of the 45th iteration of exercise Cobra Gold (US Army). The longest-running international military exercise in the world, Cobra Gold is foundational to the US-Thai security relationship and the US’s larger presence in the Pacific region. Nearly 8,000 personnel are participating in the exercise (Stars and Stripes).
This year’s iteration of Cobra Gold is focusing on amphibious operations, space and cyber operations, crisis response, humanitarian operations, combined arms operations, jungle training, and aviation operations (INDOPACOM, Stars and Stripes, US Army, USNI News).
Cobra Gold will conclude on March 6, 2026 (USNI News).
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.
Comments represent the analysis, opinions, and estimates of The Intel Brief writer(s).