Pacific Weekly #87
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Reporting Period: February 9-15, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. Japan held snap elections, resulting in a DPP supermajority. The snap elections, scheduled after Prime Minister Takaichi dissolved the lower house of parliament, were held on February 8. Takaichi, with more legislative support than ever, is expected to rally support nationwide and rapidly pursue her policy agendas especially regarding the economy and security.
2. US Marines recently deployed to Tinian to conduct FARP operations. The FARP allows Marines and US aviation assets to rearm and refuel far from their home air station, greatly expanding their operational range and frequency. The training, conducted on Tinian, is a strong proof of concept for EABO operations in the Second Island Chain.
3. Chinese officials conducted their annual Taiwan Working Conference. The event is an opportunity for China’s senior Taiwan policy officials to converge priorities and plan actions and operations for the year ahead.
Japan’s LDP Party Dominates Snap Elections
Summary
Japan held snap elections, resulting in a DPP supermajority. The snap elections, scheduled after Prime Minister Takaichi dissolved the lower house of parliament, were held on February 8. Takaichi, with more legislative support than ever, is expected to rally support nationwide and rapidly pursue her policy agendas, especially regarding the economy and security.
Findings and Analysis
Background: On January 23, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi dissolved the lower house of Japan’s parliament (The Intel Brief). Snap election took place on February 8, and had been anticipated to favor Prime Minister Takaichi’s party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) (The Intel Brief). Before the elections, President Trump endorsed Takaichi and the LDP (The Intel Brief).
Comment: Before the elections, Takaichi had retained an approval rating of 70%, a factor widely believed to be her reason for dissolving parliament as a means of capitalizing on popularity, gain seats, and end dependence on coalition building.
Snap Elections: On February 8, the LDP secured a landslide victory in the lower house of parliament’s snap elections (Nikkei Asia). During the elections, the LDP secured 328 of the 465 seats in the lower parliament, achieving a supermajority that can streamline Takaichi’s legislative agenda (Reuters).
Comment: A majority in the lower house only requires 233 seats, which places the LDP well beyond its target. Additionally, the LDP retains a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), granting the 2/3 supermajority. Now, Takaichi is expected to relentlessly pursue her economic, security, and fiscal policies.
US Marines Establish FARP On Tinian
Summary
US Marines recently deployed to Tinian to conduct FARP operations. The FARP allows Marines and US aviation assets to rearm and refuel far from their home air station, greatly expanding their operational range and frequency. The training, conducted on Tinian, is a strong proof of concept for EABO operations in the Second Island Chain.
Findings and Analysis
Tinian FARP: US Marines with the Marine Wing Support Squadron 171 and Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 232 deployed to Tinian to participate in an “aviation training relocation program” intended to expand “expeditionary aviation capabilities” (Defence Connect). During the training, Marines established a Forward Arming and Refuelling Point (FARP) (Defence Connect).
Comment: FARPs, often located in littorals, expeditionary environments, or near combat areas, are used to rapidly refuel and rearm aircraft beyond the range of their home base. FARPs are a critical component of the Marine Corps’ Force Design 2030, and the improvement of expeditionary warfare capabilities.
Background: Beginning in 2005, the US has reached a series of agreements with Japan to reduce the number of US Marines on Okinawa, and instead move them to Guam (within the Second Island Chain) (Marine Corps Times). A deal to redeploy 5,000 Marines to Guam was finalized in 2012. In 2020, Marine Corps Base Camp Blaz was activated on Guam (Marine Corps Times).
On November 19, 2024, Governor Palacios of the Marianas Islands endorsed an $800 million plan to upgrade the infrastructure on Tinian (The Intel Brief).
Comment: Recently, The Atlantic Council published a report suggesting the Marine Corps’ redeployment to Guam from Okinawa is a strategic mistake and weakens allied deterrence against China (Guam PDN). Likewise, in January 2025, USMC Commandant General Smith suggested that relocating 5,000 Marines to Guam is a mistake; that Marines are “going the wrong way” (Guam PDN).
China Convenes Annual “Taiwan Working Conference”
Summary
Chinese officials conducted their annual Taiwan Working Conference. The event is an opportunity for China’s senior Taiwan policy officials to converge priorities and plan actions and operations for the year ahead.
Findings and Analysis
Taiwan Working Conference: From February 9-10, 2026, CCP officials convened in Beijing for the annual Taiwan Working Conference (ISW, PRC MOD). The conference is intended for senior CCP officials to “formulate a comprehensive approach toward Taiwan for the year” (ISW). Reportedly, the four goals for the conference were to focus on Uniting “patriotic forces” in Taiwan and preventing US armament, building up PRC and Taiwanese supply chains while weakening Taiwan’s trade with the US, strengthening China’s legal case for a reunification and absorption of Taiwan, and mobilizing a United Front task force with cyber capabilities to damage the DPP’s popularity (ISW, Washington Examiner).
Comment: The results of the Taiwan working conference are likely to reaffirm and accelerate much of China’s current strategy regarding Taiwan; PLA expansion, political and information warfare, hybrid military operations, and high-level coercive diplomacy, lawfare, and military posturing. One of the interesting factors is the CCP’s desire to work with “patriotic pro-unification forces” while finding ways to neutralize and, ultimately, punish the “separatist forces” who want to retain sovereignty from China (CNA). To do this, China is likely to expand its relationship with KMT politicians who are sympathetic to Beijing, while also expanding United Front efforts in Taiwan.
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.
Comments represent the analysis, opinions, and estimates of The Intel Brief writer(s).