Pacific Weekly #86
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Reporting Period: February 2-8, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. Taiwan has secured a special budget to enhance its maritime radar and surveillance capabilities. Taiwan plans to develop a network capable of 24-hour surveillance operations. The news comes as China continues daily incursions against its Indo-Pacific adversaries.
2. The Secretary of Russia’s Security Council met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. During their meeting, Secretary Shoigu stated that Russia supports China’s ambition to seize Taiwan.
3. Today, Japanese voters will head to the polls to participate in snap elections. In January, Prime Minister Takaichi dissolved parliament. President Trump has formally endorsed Takaichi and her party, the LDP.
Taiwan Upgrading Its Maritime Surveillance Capability
Summary
Taiwan has secured a special budget to enhance its maritime radar and surveillance capabilities. Taiwan plans to develop a network capable of 24-hour surveillance operations. The news comes as China continues daily incursions against its Indo-Pacific adversaries.
Findings and Analysis
Special Budget: On February 1, Nikkei Asia reported that Taiwan’s Coast Guard and Ocean Affairs Council secured a $935 million special budget to enhance its maritime radar and surveillance capability (Nikkei Asia). The funding will be used to procure new radar systems, build a fleet of around 40 new patrol vessels, and expand surveillance capabilities, including aerial, surface, and unmanned systems, infrared imaging, medium-range coastal radar, and AI-based image detection platforms (Nikkei Asia). Reportedly, the new network will be capable of 24-hour maritime surveillance, including around outlying islands (Nikkei Asia).
Comment: For years, Taiwan has experienced almost daily maritime and aerial incursions into its territorial waters and airspaces by Chinese assets. In mid-May 2025, Taiwan’s Coast Guard (ROC CG)reported an increase in small boat incursions (The Intel Brief). At that time, the ROC CG requested “special funding” to help develop its coastal surveillance capability (The Intel Brief). Likewise, Taiwan reported that Chinese patrols and incursions have been steadily increasing around Taiwanese outlying islands, specifically Kinmen (The Intel Brief).
Coast Guard Authority: On June 26, 2025, Kuomintang (KMT) legislators proposed transferring authority of Taiwan’s outlying islands to the Ocean Affairs Council from the Ministry of Defense (The Intel Brief).
Comment: Back in June 2025, this proposal was shot down by the Lai government and supporters in the Legislative Yuan, on the grounds that transferring authority to the OAC would limit Taiwan’s ability to respond rapidly and with appropriate force if Kinmen were seized (The Intel Brief). Now, this recent approval of special funding indicates the embrace of a strategy of active enforcement, rather than reaction to Chinese hybrid warfare tactics.
Chinese Propaganda: On February 1, the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) released two propaganda videos showcasing how CCG patrols “defend sovereignty, security, and maritime rights and interests” (Global Times). The two videos were published on the 5th anniversary of the implementation of The Coast Guard Law of the People’s Republic of China (Global Times).
Comment: China’s Coast Guard Law, effective since February 1, 2021, authorized the CCG to use “all necessary means” to enforce Chinese sovereignty over “waters under China’s jurisdiction” (PRC MOD, CSIS). The law, which allows the CCG to act as a second navy, is frequently used to justify Chinese maritime activities in waters that are internationally recognized as Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of other nations, such as Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan (China Power Project, gCaptain, MSN).
Russia Formally Supports Chinese Seizure Of Taiwan
Summary
The Secretary of Russia’s Security Council met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. During their meeting, Secretary Shoigu stated that Russia supports China’s ambition to seize Taiwan.
Findings and Analysis
Ministerial Meeting: On February 1, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu arrived in Beijing to meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (Reuters, TASS). Wang Yi reportedly urged Russia and China to “maintain close communication on major issues” and support each other’s “core interests” (Reuters). TASS, a Russian state media outlet, reported that Shoigu voiced Russia’s support for China regarding Taiwan (TASS).
“We see that ill-wishers of China continue to destabilize the situation in the Taiwan Strait. For our part, I would like to reaffirm our consisten and unwavering support for Beijing on the Taiwan issue… We proceed from the understanding that the government of the People’s Republic of China is the sole legitimate government representing all of China.”
Comment: In 2022, just before Russia’s “Special Military Operation” into Ukraine began, Moscow and Beijing signed a “no limits” strategic partnership (The China Project). Likewise, at the February 1 meeting between Wang Yi and Shoigu, Wang Yi confirmed that Russia and China “are advancing a comprehensive strategic partnership for a new era” (TASS). That new era, according to their shared rhetoric and place of meeting, includes declined Western influence, and expansion to BRICS and the CSO, and Chinese and Russian reforms to the United Nations (TASS, TASS).
Trump Endorses Takaichi, Ruling Coalition In Upcoming Elections
Summary
Today, Japanese voters will head to the polls to participate in snap elections. In January, Prime Minister Takaichi dissolved parliament. President Trump has formally endorsed Takaichi and her party, the LDP.
Findings and Analysis
Background: On January 23, Prime Minister Takaichi dissolved the lower house of Japan’s parliament (The Intel Brief). Snap elections are scheduled for today, February 8 (The Intel Brief).
Comment: Takaichi has retained an approval rating of 70%, and dissolved parliament to capitalize on her popularity and gain seats for her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Trump Endorsement: On February 5, President Trump posted on Truth Social his endorsement of Prime Minister Takaichi (X). Trump called Takaichi a “proven… powerful, and wise Leader, and one that truly loves her Country” (X). Trump formally endorsed Takaichi, urging Japanese voters to elect LDP candidates (X).
Trump will host Takaichi at the White House on March 19.
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.
Comments represent the analysis, opinions, and estimates of The Intel Brief writer(s).