Pacific Weekly #85
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Reporting Period: January 26 - February 1, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. Xi Jinping has continued an extensive series of political and military purges. This week, Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Chief of Staff Liu Zhenli were removed from their positions and arrested. Some reports suggest a coup was thwarted, and that PLA forces entered parts of Beijing to take pre-emptive control.
2. Taiwan’s opposition parties continue to block President Lai Ching-te’s proposed special defense budget, creating a political standoff over military spending. Since December 2025, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and Kuomintang (KMT) coalition have rejected Lai’s $40 billion defense proposal eight times in the Legislative Yuan. On January 26, the TPP introduced a counterproposal that caps additional defense spending at $12.8 billion and reduces funding for key initiatives.
3. On January 27, Prime Minister Takaichi defended her interventionist rhetoric. Takaichi stated Japan would respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or risk collapsing Tokyo’s relationship with the United States. China has denounced the rhetoric.
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Xi Jinping Continues Purges, Removes Two Senior Generals
Summary
Xi Jinping has continued an extensive series of political and military purges. This week, Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and Chief of Staff Liu Zhenli were removed from their positions and arrested. Some reports suggest a coup was thwarted, and that PLA forces entered parts of Beijing to take pre-emptive control.
Findings
Background: When Xi Jinping took power in 2012, he began a series of political and military purges in an effort to control the ideological and decision-making structure of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) (The Intel Brief). Xi originally proposed rooting out “Tigers” (formidable dissidents) and “Flies” (the self-serving and corrupt) (The Intel Brief).
“Turning the Knife Inward”: On December 16, 2025, Xi Jinping published an article in the CCP’s Qiushi magazine stating that the party must “turn the knife inward” to root out ideological inconsistencies, corruption, and the undisciplined (The Intel Brief).
Recent Purges: Xi has continued his high-level purges, which has significantly impacted the leadership makeup of the PLA and CCP bodies.
In March 2025, General He Weidong disappeared from public life (The Intel Brief).
In June 2025, Admiral Miao Hua, Vice Admiral Li Hanjun, and nuclear scientist Liu Shipeng were removed from their positions (The Intel Brief).
In October 2025, before convening for a plenary of the Central Committee, nine senior officials were removed from their positions and expelled from the CCP (The Intel Brief).
January 2026 Coup and Purges: This week, OSINT and media outlets reported that a potential coup plot was foiled in China (Indrageopulse, Vox). The following officials were reportedly removed from their positions and arrested:
Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia (Central Military Commission)
Chief of Staff Liu Zhenli (Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission)
Former Director Zhong Shaojun (General Office of the Central Military Commission)
Rumors suggest that upwards of 17 other generals were removed in the recent purges (Socialist Alternative).
Zhang Youxia, China’s most senior general, was reportedly arrested for leaking nuclear weapons secrets to the United States (BBC, The Kobeissi Letter).
Why This Matters
Xi Jinping recently stated that China will be ready to forcefully seize Taiwan in 2026, ahead of the original 2027 goal. In addition to holding continued ideological and decision-making influence, the purges suggest Xi is rooting out leaders who would be willing to say no to him (and no to an invasion of Taiwan).
Additionally, continued political purges suggest fragility inside of the CCP, and could indicate a growing rift between Xi loyalists and reformers, hence the allegations of a failed coup. The longer purges continue, the more likely China is to drift towards political turmoil, protests, and pressured regime change.
Taiwan People’s Party, Kuomintang Snub President Lai’s Special Defense Budget, Propose Weakened Bill
Summary
Taiwan’s opposition parties continue to block President Lai Ching-te’s proposed special defense budget, creating a political standoff over military spending. Since December 2025, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and Kuomintang (KMT) coalition have rejected Lai’s $40 billion defense proposal eight times in the Legislative Yuan. On January 26, the TPP introduced a counterproposal that caps additional defense spending at $12.8 billion and reduces funding for key initiatives, including the planned “T-Dome” air defense system. The move signals deep partisan divisions over Taiwan’s defense priorities amid rising pressure from China.
Findings
Background: In December 2025, the Legislative Yuan voted on President Lai Ching-te’s proposed special military budget, but it has been voted down by a Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and Kuomintang (KMT) bloc on eight separate occasions (ISW).
In July 2025, suggesting that a significant number of KMT officials had grown sympathetic to Chinese interests, Taiwan conducted a recall vote under the DPP’s direction (The Intel Brief). The first recall vote, which would have removed 24 KMT legislators from office, failed (The Intel Brief). On August 23, 2025, a second recall vote against 7 KMT legislators also failed (The Intel Brief).Opposition Proposal: On January 26, the TPP announced its own version of President Lai’s bill, which limits maximum special defense spending to $12.8 billion, a sharp decline from Lai’s proposed $40 billion (ISW). The bill also cuts spending for Lai’s proposed “T-Dome” air defense concept (ISW). It is uncertain whether the TPP has unanimous KMT support.
Why This Matters
The legislative deadlock undermines Taiwan’s ability to strengthen its military in the face of a PLA invasion, and is being used as a coercive device to shape the political landscape in Taiwan.
Japan PM Maintains Interventionist Rhetoric, Degrading Relations With China
Summary
On January 27, Prime Minister Takaichi defended her interventionist rhetoric. Takaichi stated Japan would respond to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, or risk collapsing Tokyo’s relationship with the United States. China has denounced the rhetoric.
Findings
Background: On November 7, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi stated to parliament that a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan would warrant a Japanese response (The Intel Brief). Various Chinese officials responded by condemning Takaichi’s remarks, suggesting a resurgence of Japanese imperialism (The Intel Brief).
On January 6, 2026, following a continued decline in the Sino-Japanese relationship, the Chinese Commerce Ministry banned the export of dual-use goods to Japan (The Intel Brief).Takaichi’s Recent Statement: On January 27, Takaichi did not back down from her position, stating that a Chinese attack on Taiwan, without a Japanese response, would “collapse” Tokyo’s relations with the United States (South China Morning Post, Reuters).
Ancillary Risks: Another sign of a diplomatic break, Japan has urged its fishermen to avoid contested islands to limit contact with Chinese Coast Guard and Chinese Merchant Marine vessels (Reuters).
Chinese Response: A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, stated that Japan “historically and legally… has no qualification whatsoever to make remarks on the Taiwan question” (Global Times, X). China maintains that Takaichi’s remarks, and apparent policy agenda, are a threat to the region (Global Times, X).
Chinese propaganda:
Why This Matters
Japan’s increasingly assertive posture on Taiwan increases the likelihood of regional conflict, rather than a Chinese invasion remaining an isolated conflict flashpoint.
Takaichi’s rhetoric ties Japan’s credibility to U.S. expectations, effectively signaling that Tokyo views Taiwan’s defense as inseparable from its own national security. For the Indo-Pacific in general, Japan is formalizing a balance of power by shifting from a cautious stakeholder to a front-line actor in a potential Taiwan conflict.
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.