Pacific Weekly #84
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Reporting Period: January 19-25, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On January 23, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi dissolved the lower house of the Japanese parliament. Snap elections are scheduled for February 8, and are anticipated to favor Takaichi’s party.
2. Recent data from China suggests continued population decline. It marks four consecutive years of population shrinkage, which is exacerbated by an aging population.
3. Japan and the Philippines signed a military logistics agreement. The agreement expands a 2025 logistical support framework, and improves both nations’ ability to conduct joint military operations.
Japanese Prime Minister Dissolves Parliament, Calls For Snap Elections
Summary
On January 23, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi dissolved the lower house of the Japanese parliament. Snap elections are scheduled for February 8, and are anticipated to favor Takaichi’s party.
Findings
Dissolution of Parliament: On January 23, Prime Minister Takaichi dissolved the lower house of Japan’s parliament (AP News). Takaichi, only three months into her tenure, dissolved parliament to trigger snap elections and “capitalize on her popularity” (AP News). Takaichi and her government currently boast a 70% approval rating.
Risk: The dissolution of parliament will delay the approval of Japan’s annual budget, and with it, plans to improve the economy and reduce prices. There are also no guarantees that Takaichi’s party or coalition supporters will gain seats.
Snap Elections: Before Takaichi’s decision, Asahi reported that snap elections would be scheduled for February 8, 2026 (Asahi). Nikkei Asia later confirmed the details (Nikkei Asia). The February voting will be Japan’s second general election in less than 16 months (Nikkei Asia).
Why This Matters
The bottom-line is that Takaichi’s decision is a political gamble. Her government is at the peak of its popularity, but needs to win seats in the snap elections and quickly deliver economic solutions and a fiscal budget.
If Takaichi fails to do this, and her party does not pick up seats, it could lead to lower approval ratings and public skepticism, ultimately pressuring a vote of no confidence and her removal from office.
China Experiences Population Decline In 2025
Summary
Recent data from China suggests continued population decline. It marks four consecutive years of population shrinkage, which is exacerbated by an aging population.
Findings
Background: In 1979, under Mao Zedong’s leadership, China instituted the “One-Child Policy” to curb overpopulation. In 2015, under Xi Jinping, the CCP allowed families to have two children. In 2021, the limit was removed entirely, and financial incentives were instituted to encourage families to have more children.
Reported Population Decline: On January 19, demographic data from China reported a continued population decline (Politico). In 2025, China reported a population of 1.404 billion, down 3 million from 2024 (Politico). The data marks four years of population decline in China (Politico). China’s fertility rates are estimated to be below the population maintenance levels, which is exacerbated by the fact that 23% of Chinese citizens are over the age of 60 (Politico).
Why This Matters
There are some core risks to population decline, such as slow or negative economic growth and growing strain to public spending (pensions, healthcare, etc.). There is also an argument to be made that declining populations make it more difficult for a nation to retain or develop talent and remain innovative.
For China, the residual effects of population decline risk creating political instability, as the CCP’s authority is dependent on performance and legitimacy. If the Chinese state fails to maintain a positive narrative and standard of living, it could undermine the political system. In general, it weakens growth, narrows military options, strains social stability, and may push Beijing toward riskier external behavior before demographics further erode national power.
Japan, Philippines Expand Military Logistics Support
Summary
Japan and the Philippines signed a military logistics agreement. The agreement expands a 2025 logistical support framework, and improves both nations’ ability to conduct joint military operations.
Findings
Background: In 2025, Japan and the Philippines ratified the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) which permits shared military training and operations, and an import/export foundation for supplies during military operations.
ACSA: On January 15, Japan and the Philippines signed the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) (The Diplomat). It is an expansion to the 2025 RAA. The agreement was signed by Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu (The Diplomat).
The agreement permits both nations to have tax-free provision of supplies and services when conducting joint military exercises (The Diplomat).
Why This Matters
The ACSA is a significant expansion to the Japanese-Philippine security relationship because expanded logistical support enables longer, more frequent military operations, whether in a training or real-world capacity.
Streamlined supply and resupply of ammunition, fuel, food, water, and general materiel greatly reduces operational friction and improves crisis contingencies. Generally, it also suggests a deepening security partnership in the face of China’s First Island Chain ambitions.
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.