Pacific Weekly #82
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly. Let’s take a look at what happened in the Indo-Pacific region this week.
Reporting Period: January 5-11, 2026
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. The Taiwanese government proposed legal amendments to counter China’s United Front activities. The decision is aimed at protecting Taiwan’s political, military, and civil institutions. The proposed measures would expand restrictions on speech, political affiliation, and conduct.
2. China imposed a ban on the export of dual-use goods to Japan. It marks a significant deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations following Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks that Japan would intervene to defend Taiwan. The bans reportedly extend to over 1,000 items.
3. On January 5, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung met with Chinese President and paramount leader Xi Jinping. The pair met in Beijing. The meeting was intended to accelerate bilateral relations between Beijing and Seoul, with a reaffirmation of adherence to the One China policy, increased economic cooperation, and skepticism of Japanese “militarism.”
Taiwan Government Proposes Bills To Counteract Chinese United Front Activities
Summary
The Taiwanese government proposed legal amendments to counter China’s United Front activities. The decision is aimed at protecting Taiwan’s political, military, and civil institutions. The proposed measures would expand restrictions on speech, political affiliation, and conduct.
Findings
United Front: China’s United Front Work Department (UFWD), or United Front, is a CCP agency responsible for coordinating political, military, and economic coercive activities aimed at promoting CCP interests and Chinese strategic objectives (USCC).
Background: In March 2025, President Lai introduced 17 strategies for countering United Front activities in Taiwan, especially activities or operations aimed at undermining Taiwan’s sovereignty and governance (Taipei Times).
Anti-United Front Activity: On January 4, the Taipei Times reported that the Executive Yuan proposed amendments to laws intended to counteract the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) United Front activities (Taipei Times). The Executive Yuan reportedly identified 20 rules to be implemented through amendments or new laws (Taipei Times).
The changes would expand the criteria for what constitutes unlawful political activity or speech (Taipei Times).
Rhetoric, demonstrations, or support for war against Taiwan.
Promoting non-peaceful means of eliminating Taiwanese sovereignty.
Penalties for military, civil servants, or teachers who are guilty of security offenses.
Enhanced penalties for personnel expressing loyalty to a foreign government, like China.
Penalties for personnel who surrender to “the enemy.”
Penalties for those who help prepare military activities against Taiwan.
Instituting new policies for possessing and storing classified material related to work duties.
Why This Matters
Because United Front agents and activities tend to lure and coerce Taiwanese citizens and officials into advancing Chinese interests, the Lai government seems to be interested in consolidating loyalties to the Taiwanese military, government, and institutions by instituting punishments as disincentives.
At the same time, these measures carry political and strategic risk. Expanded restrictions on speech and association could provoke domestic backlash, raise civil-liberty concerns, and provide Beijing with propaganda narratives portraying Taiwan as suppressing dissent.
China Bans Dual-Use Exports To Japan
Summary
China imposed a ban on the export of dual-use goods to Japan. It marks a significant deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations following Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks that Japan would intervene to defend Taiwan. The bans reportedly extend to over 1,000 items.
Findings
Background: On November 7, 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi stated that a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan would qualify as an existential threat to Japan, potentially triggering a military response by Tokyo (The Intel Brief). China responded with sharp criticism of Takaichi, instituting travel restrictions and developing a narrative of resurgent Japanese militarism that is reminiscent of World War II (The Intel Brief, Xinhua).
Dual-Use Exports Ban: On January 6, the Chinese Commerce Ministry banned the export of dual-use goods to Japan (Fox News). Dual-use exports are commercial goods that could be used for military purposes, operations, and activities.
China reportedly banned the export of more than 1,000 items (Defense News). There is speculation that Beijing will include a ban on rare earth materials to restrict Japanese industry and tech sectors (Fox News).
Japan’s Reaction: On January 7, Minoru Kihara, the Chief Secretary of Japan’s Cabinet, confirmed that the Takaichi government is assessing the projected impact of the restrictions (Defense News). Japan has formally urged China to withdraw the export bans (Defense News).
Why This Matters
The export ban is China’s most capable means short of war to weaken Japan, deter Tokyo’s posturing, and enhance Beijing’s position in the region. Dual-use export bans target Japan’s defense industrial output, as well as manufacturing in tech sectors, areas central to Tokyo’s economic and military modernization efforts.
If this strategy continues for the long term, it could begin to be considered a type of shaping operation in which China uses economic influence and coercion to disrupt Japan’s strategic efforts.
South Korea, China Summit Concludes
Summary
On January 5, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung met with Chinese President and paramount leader Xi Jinping. The pair met in Beijing. The meeting was intended to accelerate bilateral relations between Beijing and Seoul, with a reaffirmation of adherence to the One China policy, increased economic cooperation, and skepticism of Japanese “militarism.”
Findings
Lee-Xi Meeting: On January 5, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that South Korean President Lee and Xi Jinping held bilateral talks at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing (FM PRC). Despite the pair meeting twice before, the visit was Lee’s first state visit to China (FM PRC, The Diplomat).
Chinese Interests: Xi Jinping and his officials have expressed interest in expanding the diplomatic and economic partnership between China and South Korea (FM PRC). By expressing interest in “mutual progress” and accommodating each other’s “core interests” in the region, the meeting is interpreted as Xi’s attempt to disassociate South Korea from U.S. economic, diplomatic, and security integration.
“…China and the ROK have long cherished peace and upheld harmony without uniformity, transcended differences in social system and ideology, and achieved mutual success and shared progress. The two sides should carry forward this fine tradition, continue to enhance mutual trust, respect each other’s choices of development path, accommodate each other’s core interests and major concerns, and stay committed to properly resolving differences through dialogue and consultation.”
South Korean Interests: Lee views a partnership with China, as Seoul’s largest trading partner, a strategically and economically enriching. Lee also reportedly asked Xi to act as a mediator between Seoul and Pyongyang (AP News).
Critically, Lee announced “respect” for the One China policy, which insists there is only one Chinese state, that is governed from Beijing, a snub to Taiwan and the Republic of China, and the informal U.S.-led alliance that is currently propping up Taiwanese legitimacy (Bloomberg).
Why This Matters
While Seoul relies on Washington for extended deterrence and regional security, China remains South Korea’s largest trading partner and a key stakeholder in North Korea policy. By emphasizing economic cooperation and diplomatic stability with Beijing, the Lee administration appears to be buying strategic space to avoid becoming a front-line state in great-power competition. However, this balancing act carries risk: excessive accommodation of Beijing could strain U.S. and Japanese confidence, while failure to engage China could expose South Korea to economic coercion or reduced influence over North Korea.
Great realist bilateralism from Lee, but a dig at the U.S.-Korean relationship.
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.