Pacific Weekly #78
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Reporting Period: December 8-14, 2025
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On December 8, American and Australian diplomats met at the State Department in Washington, D.C., for the 35th Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations. The diplomats met to highlight the work being done to advance the bilateral military partnership, and to coordinate efforts for future strategic cooperation.
2. On December 8, fighting between Thai and Cambodian forces erupted along the disputed border. The skirmishes are another violation of the ceasefire established by President Trump and Malaysia in October 2025.
3. On December 9, President Trump announced that Nvidia will resume the sale of advanced AI chips to China. Nvidia is now authorized to sell H200 chips to Beijing, the company’s second-most advanced chip.
Officials Convene For AUSMIN 2025
Summary
On December 8, American and Australian diplomats met at the State Department in Washington, D.C., for the 35th Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations. The diplomats met to highlight the work being done to advance the bilateral military partnership, and to coordinate efforts for future strategic cooperation.
Findings
AUSMIN: The Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations is the primary forum of bilateral consultation between Canberra and Washington (Australian Government). The forum alternates between Australia and the United States each time, with Foreign Affairs and Defense officials convening to “deepen bilateral foreign security and defence cooperation” as they pertain to global and regional issues (Australian Government).
2025 AUSMIN: The 2025 AUSMIN forum is the 35th iteration, marking 40 years since the beginning of consultations (Australian Government). Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth hosted their counterparts, Minister of Foreign Affairs Penny Wong and Minister of Defence Richard Marles (Australian Government).
Details: A joint fact sheet published by the U.S. Department of State details “a range of new initiatives to advance” alongside Australia (U.S. Department of State):
Free and Open Indo-Pacific: The U.S. and Australia have agreed to advance regional stability and security, and to coordinate with the Quad Leaders on future initiatives (U.S. Department of State).
This includes advancing the Luzon Economic Corridor, advancing telecommunications with Papua New Guinea, expanding port security, and enhancing disaster management capabilities (U.S. Department of State).
The U.S. and Australia will also expand trilateral training with Japan, and Maritime Cooperative Activities in the South China Sea with the Philippines (U.S. Department of State).
Both partners will expand efforts to fight transnational crime and increase cyber warfare cooperation (U.S. Department of State).U.S.-Australian Alliance: In 2026, the U.S. and Australia will celebrate the 75th anniversary of signing the ANZUS Treaty (U.S. Department of State). Both partners are committed to expanding defense and industrial coordination (U.S. Department of State).
This includes expanding the AUKUS Framework and expanding the submarine industrial base (U.S. Department of State). Additionally, the U.S. will expand the Marine Rotational Force-Darwin capacity, so Marines can build their rotational force posture and preposition assets in the region (U.S. Department of State).
A pathway for advancing the “Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) Enterprise” was also endorsed, which includes development of hypersonic cruise missiles, depot sustainment of Advanced Medium-Range Air to Air Missiles (AMRAAM), and expanding bilateral maritime strike capabilities (U.S. Department of State).Economics as National Security: The U.S. and Australian officials agreed to expand efforts to secure a supply chain of critical minerals, based on the Critical Minerals Framework signed by President Trump and Prime Minister Albanese (U.S. Department of State).
Why This Matters
The 2025 AUSMIN forum did not necessarily bring anything new to the U.S.-Australian relationship, but it reinforced the continued strategic alignment between Washington and Canberra. It also seems that the Trump administration has worked hard to keep the AUKUS framework alive, and the AUSMIN forum helped validate that goal.
Australia will have a role of growing significance in the region, especially as the U.S. looks to build its military and logistical disposition beyond the First Island Chain. In a conflict with China, Australia would be expected to have a role similar to that during WWII; basing for U.S. forces, providing staging grounds, hosting an industrial and supply hub, and providing a central operational planning location.
Thailand, Cambodia Resume Border Hostilities Before Recommitting To Ceasefire
Summary
On December 8, fighting between Thai and Cambodian forces erupted along the disputed border. The skirmishes are another violation of the ceasefire established by President Trump and Malaysia in October 2025.
Findings
Background: On July 28, President Trump announced he and Malaysian officials had successfully negotiated a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia (The Intel Brief). On October 28, Trump oversaw the signing of a ceasefire deal with Thai and Cambodian officials (The Intel Brief). Despite the ceasefire, on November 12, cross-border skirmishes resumed (The Intel Brief).
New Border Clashes: On December 8, clashes between Thai and Cambodian forces erupted along the shared border (Nikkei Asia). The Royal Thai Army stated it launched air strikes on Cambodian positions after its soldiers were attacked by small arms fire (Intellinews). Various small-arms skirmishes, artillery, and air strikes continued in border regions, such as Si Sa Ket and Ubon Ratchathani provinces (Intellinews). Cambodia denies its forces initiated an attack on Thai soldiers (Intellinews).
Rhetoric: Thailand’s Chief of Staff General Chaiyapruek stated that Thailand’s goal is to neutralize Cambodia’s military to ensure long-term border security and to facilitate the reclamation of 11 contested frontier territories (The Nation Thailand).
Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen stated that Thailand has acted aggressively and urged Thailand to engage diplomatically (The Nation Thailand). Both sides claim to be acting defensively.
Trump Phone Call: On December 12, President Trump stated he spoke with the leaders of Thailand and Cambodia, and that both sides agreed to resume the ceasefire established in July 2025 (The Hill).
Why This Matters
Because of the loose ceasefire structure and repeated violations, the resumption of clashes was largely expected. Thailand and Cambodia’s border disputes remain unresolved, and limited progress on delineation, demilitarization, and mine clearance continues to create persistent flashpoints where minor incidents can rapidly escalate into military retaliation. The fighting underscores how the ceasefire, lacking enforcement mechanisms or third-party monitoring, is not a durable conflict resolution.
The renewed violence also carries broader regional implications. Southeast Asia has largely avoided sustained interstate conflict in recent decades; continued instability along the Thai-Cambodian border risks undermining ASEAN’s credibility as a conflict-management forum and complicating regional security cooperation at a time of rising great-power competition. This may be a relatively isolated conflict now, but Cambodia’s growing alignment with China and Thailand’s relationship with the U.S. means the region could experience greater pressure from partners to pursue strategic goals.
Trump Approves Sale Of Nvidia Chips To China
Summary
On December 9, President Trump announced that Nvidia will resume the sale of advanced AI chips to China. Nvidia is now authorized to sell H200 chips to Beijing, the company’s second-most advanced chip.
Findings
Policy Reversal: On December 9, President Trump announced that Nvidia is allowed to sell its H200 AI chips to China (The Washington Post). The decision overturns previous restrictions that prohibited the sale of Nvidia’s advanced chips, including the H200, to China due to national security concerns (The Guardian). The decision also contradicts Trump’s “tough on China” foreign policy promise and rhetoric.
H200 Chip: Unveiled in 2023, the H200 graphics processing unit (GPU) is Nvidia’s second-most powerful processor and is designed to power emerging generative AI platforms (CNBC).
Conditions of Sale: Trump stated that for China to purchase Nvidia’s chips, it would require the U.S. government to get 25% of sales revenue, and for all sales to go to “approved commercial customers” in China (The Guardian). Despite vetting sales to avoid dual military use, there is no way to enforce usage or verify a firm’s non-affiliation with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Justification and Risk: The decision to sell Nvidia’s advanced chips to China is being framed as an opportunity to grow the U.S. job market, generate revenue, and establish Chinese reliance on American chips (The Guardian). Additionally, Nvidia states it is reserving its most advanced chips, such as the “Blackwell” and future “Rubin” chips for the U.S. market (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace). Critics suggest the sale of these chips will help accelerate China’s AI and military modernization (Select Committee on China, The Guardian).
Why This Matters
This decision was made because Nvidia lost a massive, multi-billion-dollar market when its chips were removed from China. The idea is that by reintroducing its chips to China, Nvidia can regain a large revenue stream, continue innovating, and ensure U.S. firms mantain AI and tech dominance.
The problem is that China had already begun producing its own chips, was procuring American ones illegally, and is making rapid progress on these emerging technologies, like with DeepSeek AI.
Essentially, Nvidia is going back to the Chinese market because its products were ending up there regardless of control measures, and there will be zero accountability for ensuring the Chinese military and associated firms do not acquire and re-engineer this technology.
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
Did you enjoy this newsletter?
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.