Pacific Weekly #76
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Reporting Period: November 24 - 30, 2025
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On November 27, Chinese officials condemned Japan’s plan to deploy medium-range surface-to-air missiles to Yonaguni Island. China characterized the plan as an attempt to “undermine the post-WWII international order.” On November 23, Japan’s Ministry of Defense confirmed the deployment plans are progressing.
2. On November 26, President Lai Ching-te announced that a $40 billion special defense budget had been approved. The budget, which will be allocated over years, will be for defense investment and procurement. It marks an extraordinary effort by Taipei to prepare for a conflict with the PLA and deter China’s hostilities.
3. On November 27, Indonesian officials confirmed that surveillance operations at an Indonesian industrial park would continue. Investigations and reporting suggest an airport at the industrial park is operating without regulations and by Chinese actors. The scandal poses risk to Indonesia’s government stability and civil compliance.
Japan Commits To Deploying Advanced SAMs To Remote Island, Angering China
Summary
On November 27, Chinese officials condemned Japan’s plan to deploy medium-range surface-to-air missiles to Yonaguni Island. China characterized the plan as an attempt to “undermine the post-WWII international order.” On November 23, Japan’s Ministry of Defense confirmed the deployment plans are progressing.
Findings
Background: In January 2025, former Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani confirmed his interest in deploying surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to Yonaguni Island (The Warzone). On November 22, Japan’s current Defense Minister Koizumi Shinjiro confirmed that Tokyo plans to deploy Type 03 Chu-SAMs to the island (Taiwan News, The Warzone).
Type 03 Chu-SAM: The Type 03 uses an active electronically scanned array radar which is capable of tracking 100 targets and engaging 12 at a time (ODIN TRADOC). The Type 03 fires a missile derived from the Type 99 air-to-air missile, with an open-source range of 30 miles and altitudes of 30,000 ft (ODIN TRADOC).
Chinese Criticism: China has repeatedly denounced Japan’s intent to deploy missiles to Yonaguni Island. On November 27, a spokesperson for China’s Defense Ministry, Jiang Bin, stated the deployment would be a mistake, and that Beijing possesses the “capabilities and reliable means” to defeat forward deployed SAM systems (CGTN, The Asahi Shimbun).
Russian Criticism: On November 27, Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, also condemned Japan’s plan to deploy the Type 03 (CGTN).
“The Taiwan question is purely an internal affair of China, and how to solve the Taiwan question has nothing to do with Japan…
We urge the Japanese side to fully repent for its war crimes and immediately abandon dangerous attempts. Any attempt to repeat the evil path of aggression and expansion and undermine the post-WWII international order will not succeed.”
Why This Matters
Japan’s Ground Self Defense Force (GDSF) has had a presence on Yonaguni Island since 2016, but those units mostly conducted aerial surveillance (with radar) and signals intelligence collection (with EW platforms).
The deployment of Type 03 systems to Yonaguni would mark an uncharacteristically offensive posture by Japan. By establishing advanced air defense sites, Japan would be better able to contribute to an A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) barrier. Not only would this deter China and shrink the PLAAF’s range of air operations during conflict, but it would protect friendly forces and assist with the flow of other assets to or around Taiwan.
Taiwan To Increase Annual Defense Spending With Special Budget
Summary
On November 26, President Lai Ching-te announced that a $40 billion special defense budget had been approved. The budget, which will be allocated over years, will be for defense investment and procurement. It marks an extraordinary effort by Taipei to prepare for a conflict with the PLA and deter China’s hostilities.
Findings
Why This Matters
While the $40 billion is the upper limit of Taiwan’s special defense budget bonus for this year, it is a pretty significant announcement.
This is one of the Lai administration’s first major leap in procuring common, advanced weapons systems from the United States. It is a security win as Taiwan tries to grow and modernize its forces, but also a political win as KMT and pro-Beijing legislators have tried blocking defense modernization efforts.
Indonesia Investigates Chinese-Linked Private Airport, Commits To Enforcement
Summary
On November 27, Indonesian officials confirmed that surveillance operations at an Indonesian industrial park would continue. Investigations and reporting suggest an airport at the industrial park is operating without regulations and by Chinese actors. The scandal poses risk to Indonesia’s government stability and civil compliance.
Findings
Inspection: On November 19, Indonesia’s Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin confirmed that a recent inspection by the Indonesian Air Force (TNI) uncovered the operations of a private airport operating out of the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia (The Australian). The airstrip operated by the industrial park reportedly lacks any customs, government security, or immigration systems (The Australian). Investigations, and reporting by The Australian, suggest that China owns and operates the airport.
“The TNI is conducting training at an airport where no state personnel are present. This is an anomaly within the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia.”
Warning: Defence Minister Sjamsoeddin stated that “there must be no republic within a republic,” implying unknown activities at the industrial park are a violation of Indonesian sovereignty and interests (The Australian). On November 19, when the inspection results were announced, Indonesian Air Force personnel conducted a simulated raid on an illegal aircraft at the IMIP Airport (Antara Indonesian News Agency).
IMIP: The industrial park is an “integrated nickel industrial zone covering upstream and downstream processes and producing materials such as stainless and carbon steel” (Antara Indonesian News Agency).
Current Operations: On November 27, Rear Marshal Palito Sitorus stated that no foreign aircraft activities were observed at the IMIP Airport (Antara Indonesian News Agency). However, Sitorus noted that Indonesian personnel will continue to increase surveillance activity at the industrial park (Antara Indonesian News Agency).
Why This Matters
There are multiple risks to an airport operating without any checks. For example, China could be using the airport to move people and materiel. Indonesia’s primary concern, however, is that illegal mining operations are stripping Indonesia of its raw material and being illegally processed and exported.
The Energy and Mineral Resources Minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, stated that the government is waiting on more investigative results before it pursues legal action or conducts security operations (Antara Indonesian News Agency).
Additionally, as this controversy develops into outright scandal, it could lead to civil unrest near the industrial park, across Indonesia, and lead further government instability.
Thanks to our reader, Otto, for passing along this development.
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.