Pacific Weekly #74
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Reporting Period: November 10-16, 2025
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. China and Japan are locked in a growing diplomatic confrontation following remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting a Chinese attack on Taiwan could potentially justifying a military response by Tokyo. Beijing condemned the comments as interference, and a senior Chinese diplomat made a malicious but now-deleted social media post about Takaichi. In retaliation, China has warned its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to protest formally. The dispute underscores deepening tensions over Taiwan, a shifting Japanese security posture, and deteriorating bilateral relations.
2. On November 14, a report by Radio Taiwan International suggested that anti-Xi and anti-CCP protests have grown in frequency across China. The report cites known incidents as far back as August 2025. It claims that despite the state’s rapid suppression of protests, that they are becoming more common, itself a sign of discontent with Xi and the CCP.
3. Thailand has suspended all agreements with Cambodia following a landmine incident that injured Thai soldiers in a disputed border region. The suspension halts implementation of the October 26 ceasefire agreement brokered by President Trump, which ended a five-day conflict in July that killed at least 48 soldiers and displaced 300,000 civilians. Despite heightened tensions, both governments have maintained communication, and no renewed fighting has been reported.
Japan, China Experience Diplomatic Row Over Statements Regarding Taiwan Intervention
Summary
China and Japan are locked in a growing diplomatic confrontation following remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting a Chinese attack on Taiwan could potentially justifying a military response by Tokyo. Beijing condemned the comments as interference, and a senior Chinese diplomat made a malicious but now-deleted social media post about Takaichi. In retaliation, China has warned its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to protest formally. The dispute underscores deepening tensions over Taiwan, a shifting Japanese security posture, and deteriorating bilateral relations.
Findings
Takaichi’s Statement: On November 7, PM Takaichi said in parliament that a Chinese military action against Taiwan could qualify as an existential threat to Japan, potentially triggering Japan’s right to collective self-defense (The Guardian). She framed such a scenario as not just a Taiwanese issue, but one that could threaten “the survival” of Japan (The Guardian).
Chinese Responses: Beijing strongly criticized Takaichi’s remarks which was interpreted as Japan’s intention to militarily intervene on Taiwan’s behalf, likely alongside the U.S.-led alliance in the Pacific (Politico). In a now deleted post on X, the Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, posted that “the dirty head that sticks itself in must be cut off” (Politico). China summoned Japan’s ambassador to lodge a protest; Japan also responded diplomatically (Politico).
Travel Warning: China’s foreign ministry and its embassy in Japan issued a public advisory telling Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan “in the near future,” citing what it claimed was a dangerous environment for Chinese nationals (The Guardian). Several Chinese airlines (e.g. China Eastern, Air China) are offering refunds or free changes for tickets to Japan (UPI). In response, Tokyo has “strongly asked” Beijing to reverse the advisory (The Straits Times).
Why This Matters
One of the most interesting aspects of this development is Takaichi’s initial remarks. Her rhetoric is a notable shift in Japan’s previous policies regarding the security environment in the region. Before, Japanese officials nurtured a posture of strategic ambiguity; it could be inferred that Japan may move militarily against China in the event of a Taiwan scenario. But now, the policy is becoming more certain.
The second greatest point of interest is China’s response, which shows some level of insecurity (see below post from Global Times), as Beijing want to discourage other regional powers like South Korea or the Philippines from intervening in the interest of Taiwan or the United States. Remember, much of Beijing’s policy objectives with their air and naval incursions are to destabilize and degrade the defense apparatus of its target. A secondary goal being to convince nations, and its populace, that resisting China is futile.
If all of a sudden a rigid interventionist policy is establish by all members of the U.S.-led alliance, then China’s ability and likelihood of a hostile takeover of Taiwan becomes less likely.
Keep an eye on Takaichi and her cabinet, and how they engage with Chinese officials.
Anti-Xi, Anti-Communist Protests Grow In China
Summary
On November 14, a report by Radio Taiwan International suggested that anti-Xi and anti-CCP protests have grown in frequency across China. The report cites known incidents as far back as August 2025. It claims that despite the state’s rapid suppression of protests, that they are becoming more common, itself a sign of discontent with Xi and the CCP.
Findings
Background: Open protest against Xi Jinping and the CCP is rare in China due to the nature of its state surveillance and track record of violent suppression. The most recent anti-Xi protests were the November 2022 “White Paper” protests which began after an apartment fire killed civilians (CNN). Those protests quickly morphed into a protest against China’s COVID policies, which in turn morphed into anti-CCP and anti-Xi protests.
Those protests were the largest in China since the Tiananmen Square Massacre.
Recent Protests: RTI reports that anti-Xi and anti-CCP protests are on the rise across China (RTI). On November 3, a video on X showed banners hung from a bridge in Liaocheng, Shandong, declaring “The CCP isn’t China, the CCP is an evil cult” (RTI). Similar banners have appeared in Suiping County, Henan, where protestors called for Xi Jinping to step down, demanded an end to “dictatorial tyranny,” and urged greater freedom of speech and internet access (RTI). In Beijing, a demonstrator used a megaphone next to banners labeling the CCP an “anti-humanity cult,” calling for the creation of “a new China that is free, humane, and governed by rule of law,” before being quickly detained by security personnel (RTI). RTI also highlighted an earlier August incident in Kunming, Yunnan, in which a lone protester displayed a “Xi Jinping step down” banner at a war memorial (RTI).
Why This Matters
Analysts cited by RTI assess these dispersed but increasingly frequent protests across Shandong, Henan, Beijing, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Chongqing as emerging indicators of rising discontent with the political system and Xi’s leadership, despite the state’s rapid suppression of each event.
In turn, that growing civil disobedience and disenchantment with the CCP suggest that if China needed to mobilize its military, industries, and national populace for war or crisis, that a revolt or protests could emerge and stop or hinder Xi’s progress.
Thailand Halts Agreements With Cambodia Following Lethal Mine Incident
Summary
Thailand has suspended all agreements with Cambodia following a landmine incident that injured Thai soldiers in a disputed border region. The suspension halts implementation of the October 26 ceasefire agreement brokered by President Trump, which ended a five-day conflict in July that killed at least 48 soldiers and displaced 300,000 civilians. Despite heightened tensions, both governments have maintained communication, and no renewed fighting has been reported.
Update: As of November 16, Thailand has identified the mines as newly planted PMN-2 landmines (Thai Government). The Thai government also stated that Cambodian troops “encroached upon” and occupied parts of the area where the mines were placed (Thai Government). Thailand has demanded an apology, and asked for new measures to ensure a peace deal can be met and adhered to.
Findings
Background: In mid-July 2025, a five-day border conflict erupted between Thailand and Cambodia (The Intel Brief, CNN). On July 28, President Trump orchestrated an initial ceasefire (The Intel Brief). On October 26, Trump oversaw the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia (The Intel Brief). At least 48 soldiers were killed and 300,000 were displaced during the brief border conflict (BBC, CNA).
Landmine Incident: On November 12, Thailand’s foreign ministry stated that freshly laid landmines injured Thai soldiers (BBC, CNA).
Thailand claims landmines were laid in an area where Cambodian troops were discovered removing barbed wire on November 9, 2025 (CNN).
Cambodia denies laying landmines in the contested border region.
“Most minefields, from nearly three decades of Cambodia’s civil wars of the 1970s and 1980s, along the Cambodia-Thailand border have not yet been cleared due to the difficult terrains and the un-demarcated status of the border areas.”
Halting the Peace Agreement: On November 12, Thai General Ukris Boontanondha stated that he was “halting all agreements until Cambodia clearly and sincerely demonstrates that it will not be ‘hostile’” (BBC, CNN).
Despite Thailand’s pause of agreements, there have been no reports of fighting. Cambodia’s Ministry of Defense confirmed that both sides communicated following the mine incident (CNN).
Why This Matters
Thailand’s suspension of peace agreements underscores the fragility of the ceasefire and the enduring volatility of Southeast Asia’s border disputes. The incident risks reigniting hostilities along one of the region’s most contested frontiers and undermines U.S.-brokered diplomatic progress. If the pause in cooperation persists, it could disrupt regional affairs, weaken ASEAN cohesion, and invite external actors, such as China, to exert greater influence under the guise of mediation or investment in border security.
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.