Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: November 3-9, 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

China’s Fujian Aircraft Carrier Enters Service

Summary
On November 5, the Fujian aircraft carrier entered operational service. The Fujian is China’s third aircraft carrier and its most advanced. The Fujian drastically expands the PLA Navy’s “blue water” operational capabilities.

Findings

• Background: The Fujian was launched in June 2022, and conducted its first sea trial in May 2024 (The Global Times). The Fujian is China’s third operational aircraft carrier, and the flagship vessels of Xi’s blue-water naval ambitions.

• Commissioning Ceremony: On November 5, Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping attended the commissioning ceremony for the Fujian (CNN, Xinhua). The ceremony took place in Sanya City, Hainan Province (CNN, Xinhua). Hainan is strategically significant for China, as it is home to Yukon Naval Base, the hub of China naval power (The Washington Post).

• Capabilities: While the Fujian is China’s third aircraft carrier, it is considered its most modern and advanced (NBC News). The Fujian features China’s first electromagnetic launch catapult (this allows heavier aircraft to be launched, meaning they can depart with more weapons and fuel). Additionally, this improved capability means China can project its power further, and longer, at sea.
  However, the Fujian is conventionally powered, as opposed to nuclear, meaning its operational range and frequency is limited (CNN).

Why This Matters
The Fujian going operational is a big deal for China. Despite being conventionally powered, the Fujian’s catapult allows for China to deploy advanced aircraft with fuller combat loads and more fuel, expanding their tactical capability (and further from home).

The Fujian is a major generational leap for the PLA Navy, but does not bring it to parity with the United States. However, in terms of reaching for regional hegemony, it is a major advance for Xi and Beijing.

Chinese Premier Anticipates Massive Economic Growth For China By 2030

Summary
On November 5, Chinese Premier Li Qiang stated that China will have a GDP of $23.87 trillion by 2030. China remains the world’s second largest economy, behind the United States.

Findings

• Background: In December 1978, following the CCP’s Third Plenary for that year, China entered a period of reform under Deng Xiaoping’s “Reform and Opening Up” policy (CATO Institute). A study by the CATO Institute shows that in 1970, Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) was $232 billion but, due to reform and widespread marketization, GDP grew to nearly $16 trillion by 2019 (CATO Institute). In 2025, China’s economy is estimated to have exceed $19 trillion, second only to the United States (Statista).

• Projected Growth: On November 5, speaking at the China International Import Expo (CIIE), Premier Li Qiang stated that China’s GDP is expected to near $23.87 trillion by 2030. (Reuters). This is despite projections that China’s rate of economic growth is declining from, for example, nearly 8.6% in 2021 to a projected 3.4% in 2030 (Statista).

Why This Matters
China’s massive economic growth is one of the most significant narratives of the modern era. Its growth has reshaped international trade, influenced global supply chains, and significantly impacted other economies, but it has also created domestic challenges such as increased wealth inequality and major environmental concerns.

A booming economy allows China to better coerce regional and global trade, and rapidly expand and modernize the PLA. China will continue to use its wealth to develop its tools of national power, while continuing to degrade the U.S./Western Order.

Russia, China Agree To Expand Strategic Partnership

Summary
On November 3, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Hangzhou, China. The pair met to expand the Sino-Russian relationship by signing a new strategic partnership. The meeting emphasized high-level political alignment, expanded economic cooperation, and closer coordination on global governance. Both sides reiterated that their strategic partnership has reached its highest level in history.

Findings

• Russia-China “Regular Meeting”: This session between Mishustin and Li marked the 30th Regular Meeting between Russian and China (Chinese Embassy, Caspian News). The pair signed the “Joint Communiqué of the 30th Regular Meeting Between the Chinese and Russian Heads of Government” along with various coordinating documents (Chinese Embassy, Caspian News).

• Sino-Russian Cooperation: The Chinese embassy was adamant to highlight the growing friendship between Russia and China, and specifically between Putin and Xi Jinping (Chinese Embassy). The Chinese embassy phrased these efforts as a partnership alongside Russia intended to advance Beijing’s new 5-Year Plan, as well as efforts to establish a multipolar economic order (Chinese Embassy). This includes expanding joint policy in organizations like BRICS, NATO, and the SCO (Chinese Embassy).

• Expanding Efforts: Russia seeks deeper links in energy and transport infrastructure, agriculture, digital economy, and technology transfers As well as general trade and investment (Chinese Embassy, Caspian News). Both are seeking deeper tourism and expansion to Visa access (Chinese Embassy).

Why This Matters
China and Russia continue to institutionalize their partnership across political, economic, and security domains, which is bolstering a durable strategic relationship that complicates U.S. regional influence. These developments support:

• Sanctions-resistant economic structures

• Increased dual-use technology transfer, including satellite navigation and digital systems

• Coordinated diplomatic pushback against U.S.-led institutions

By expanding engagement through BRICS and the SCO, Beijing and Moscow are slowly constructing alternative geopolitical architectures capable of reshaping global norms and resisting Western-led blocs and strategic ambitions.

Perhaps most significant is that the expanding partnership is an unofficial endorsement of existing circumstances. China’s support is an endorsement of the war in Ukraine, which Beijing could use to leverage Moscow’s support in a future Taiwan scenario. Those kinds of guarantees not only embolden these actions, but they also deter an American-led response.

Two U.S. Aircraft Crash In South China Sea, Reason Undisclosed

Summary
On October 29, it was reported that two aircraft from the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier crashed in the South China Sea. There was no loss of life, and cause for the crashes range from maintenance or electronic jamming.

Findings

• Crash: One F/A-18 Super Hornet and one MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter crashed within an hour (Asia Sentinel, SCMP). The U.S. Navy reported that there was no loss of life, and all 5 crew were recovered (Asia Sentinel).

• Causes: Reporting suggests various issues may have led to the crash, or a combination of various factors:

  • Poor maintenance and high pilot flight hours (i.e. wear-and-tear and low rest) (Asia Sentinel).

  • Use of contaminated or wrong fuel (i.e. causing mechanical error) (Asia Sentinel).

  • Active Chinese electronic jamming (i.e. system and C2 interference) (Asia Sentinel).

  Chinese officials and state media reportedly refuted the suggestion that PLA assets conducted jamming, leading to the crashes (SCMP).

Why This Matters
Given the USS Nimitz having been deployed for over 200 days and a reported operational temp of “60 to 90” sorties a day, it is likely that maintenance or human error were cause for the crash (Asia Sentinel). However, given the frequency of Chinese jamming and interference (operations below the threshold of war), it is possible that those effects were present.

Regardless, the error is significant due to the high cost of lost assets (~$100 million) and the negative narrative. It does show that U.S. assets worldwide are maintaining rigorous operational tempos and may be pushing personnel and systems to the limit.

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading!
— Nick