Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: October 27 - November 2, 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Trump, Xi Convene For Bilateral Meeting On Sidelines Of APEC Summit

Summary
On October 30, President Trump met with Xi Jinping in South Korea. The meeting took place on the sidelines of the APEC Summit. Trump praised the meeting a success, and suggested future deals could stem from it. At the same time, Secretary of War Hegseth met with his Chinese counterparts on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit.

Findings

• Trump-Xi Meeting: On October 30, President Trump confirmed a meeting between him and Xi Jinping took place on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea (The White House). Trump stated that the meeting was “truly great,” establishing a trade war truce and the basis for future deals (The White House). Trump also stated that the U.S.-China relationship “will only be enhanced with what just took place” (The White House).
  The U.S. Select Committee on China praised Trump’s visit, but stated the “ultimate measure of success” will be whether or not China upholds its promises, or skirts and avoids them (China Select Committee).

• Trade Terms: Confirmed by President Trump and The Institute for the Study of War, the U.S.-China trade truce includes a suspension of tariffs, the removal of some critical minerals export controls, efforts to halt the flow of fentanyl, and the promise of agricultural and energy purchases (ISW).
  The U.S. and China did not reach a deal regarding the purchase of TikTok (ISW). Trump also confirmed that the meeting with Xi laid the groundwork for a future energy deal, in which Beijing will purchase oil and gas from Alaska (The White House). Note that early in Trump’s term, U.S. allies in the region organized an LNG deal with Alaska.
  ISW also notes that leading up to the Trump-Xi bilateral meeting, Chinese state media suggested Taiwan, after reunification, be governed by a Hong Kong model resembling the “one country, two systems” framework (ISW).

• Hegseth’s Meeting: On October 30, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth met with China’s Minister of National Defense, Admiral Dong Jun (U.S. Department of War). The meeting took place on the sidelines of the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus, around the same time Trump met with Xi (U.S. Department of War).
  In a separate presser, Hegseth stated that the United States has not shaken its stance on Taiwan sovereignty, and that the conversation with his Chinese counterparts was “constructive… candid” (Department of War).
  Hegseth reportedly voiced his concerns about Chinese naval activity around Taiwan and the South China Sea (Economic Times).

Why This Matters
The bilateral meeting between President Trump and President Xi, and the resulting trade truce, represents a fragile pause in economic hostilities, but does not resolve the deep-seated strategic rivalry between the two superpowers.

The estimate by ISW suggesting the deal is a short-term reprieve to gear China for long-term competition appears accurate, especially when we consider the commentary by the Select Committee, which suggests China may simply withdraw or avoid its promises.

For example, some of the concessions, if not honored, could immediately resume trade hostilities, degrade the bilateral diplomatic relationship, and increase tensions around the Taiwan question. What would have to happen to do this?

• China reinstates critical mineral export restrictions.

• China cancels purchases of U.S. soybeans and agricultural products.

• China withdraws from energy purchase talks.

• China resumes flow of fentanyl into U.S.

• A resumption of tariffs and reciprocal tariffs.

Hegseth Signs Defense Framework With India

Summary
On October 30, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth signed a defense framework with India. The framework will enhance U.S.-Indian collaboration on intelligence and technology. Despite India’s role in BRICS, it marks a growing strategic alignment between the two powers, especially against China and other threats to regional security, such as terrorism and tensions with Pakistan.

Findings

• Announcement: On October 30, Hegseth confirmed he signed a 10-year defense framework with his Indian counterpart, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh (Reuters, Economic Times). The pair met in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit (Economic Times).

• U.S.-India Defense Framework: No details of the framework were disclosed, but reporting suggests it focuses on deepening “regional stability and deterrence, enhancing coordination, information sharing and technological cooperation” between Washington and New Delhi (Reuters, Economic Times). DW reports that the deal will expand intelligence sharing as well, which likely means deeper collaboration in regional counterterrorism operations (DW).
  

Why This Matters
The defense framework between the U.S. and India may seem like an obvious step for the Trump administration and U.S. foreign policy, but it is somewhat of a surprise given the ongoing trade war between Washington and New Delhi, and India’s growing role in BRICS and other revisionist movements.

It is clear that this framework is intended to exploit India’s border tensions with China, and align New Delhi with the U.S. alliance in the long-term. Secondly, the U.S. and India are strategically aligning given tensions with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and terrorism in the region.

Xi Jinping Proposes “Five-Point” Economic Proposal At APEC Summit

Summary
On October 30, Xi Jinping proposed a Five-Point economic proposal at the APEC Summit. The plan is aligned with China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, and emphasizes globalist authority and preservation of economic trade frameworks that benefit China’s path to regional economic hegemony. China will host next year’s summit.

Findings

• Xi’s Five-Point Proposal: Xi’s proposal, styled as a framework for economic equity and inclusivity, is intended to expand China’s global economic ambitions and undermine the U.S.-led Liberal economic order (Xinhua, Global Times).
  Xi Jinping also noted that these recommendations coincide with China’s formulation of its 15th Five-Year Plan (Xinhua, Global Times). These recommendations urge “reform… and expanding high-standard opening up,” suggesting that Beijing will drastically expand regional investment, supply chain dominance, and economic hegemony in the region (Xinhua, Global Times).

Why This Matters
Xi’s proposal advocates for a region-wide push against protectionism (i.e. China skepticism), a commitment to WTO-centric economic governance, a focus on Chinese-led initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (mentioned in the context of development), and a greater push for integration through existing Asian trade blocs.

These are all things that Xi Jinping believes China can influence, coerce, and control into the 21st century, effectively preparing China for an era of economic hegemony.

This aligns with an ancient Chinese Legalist concept, Fuguo qiangbing (富国强兵), which literally proclaims that “a wealthy state and a strong army” is the focus of Chinese statecraft (Asia Society, U.S. Department of State). Contemporarily, the concept is central to the fusion of Confucianist politics and the ideology and policy of Maoist and Xi’ist Reformers; today, making it central to Beijing’s CCP-led Military-Civil Fusion concept (U.S. Department of State).

In short, while Xi’s proposal was not made into an adopted framework, the sentiment and rhetorical support are already commonplace in globalist ideology and institutions, and it poses a huge risk to the Western order. China will also host next year’s APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting:

Trump Meets With New Japanese Prime Minister, Signs Trade Deal

Summary
President Trump and Prime Minister Takaichi held their first official visit in Tokyo, Japan, during Trump’s Asia tour. The pair signed a trade and investment deal, which focuses on Japanese investment into U.S. industries in exchange for lowered tariffs. The leaders also signed a landmark agreement on critical minerals and affirmed the need to deepen defense cooperation to advance the "free and open Indo-Pacific" policy agenda. The visit highlights a mutual desire to establish a "new golden era" for the U.S.-Japan relationship.

Findings

• Trump-Takaichi Meeting: On October 28, President Trump and Prime Minister Takaichi held a U.S.-Japan Summit in Tokyo, marking the pair’s first official meeting. Secretary of State Rubio and Secretary of War Hegseth also met with their Japanese counterparts.

• Investment for Lower Tariffs: The core of the economic agreement involves Japan's pledge to inject $550 billion in investment into the U.S. economy (CBS News, Japan Times). In return, the U.S. implemented a 15% tariff on imported Japanese goods, a notable reduction from the 25% tariff previously threatened by the Trump administration (CBS News, Japan Times).

• Targeted U.S. Investments: The Japanese investment is earmarked for key U.S. industries to strengthen the industrial base and supply chains (The White House). Commitments announced include:

  • Energy Infrastructure: Up to $332 billion for critical energy projects, including the construction of advanced nuclear reactors (AP1000 and Small Modular Reactors—SMRs) in partnership with companies like Westinghouse, GE Vernova, and Hitachi (The White House).

  • Technology and AI: Significant funding is allocated for AI infrastructure, advanced electronic components, data center power systems (Mitsubishi Electric), and optical fiber cables (Fujikura) (The White House).

  • Critical Minerals: Investment into new facilities for high-pressure diamond grit manufacturing and a lithium-iron-phosphate production facility to boost domestic supply (The White House).

• Critical Minerals and Rare Earths Pact: The leaders signed a separate, strategic agreement to secure the supply chains for critical minerals and rare earths (TRT World). This includes plans for both countries to coordinate investment and policy efforts to establish diversified, non-Chinese sources for these materials, which are essential for advanced technologies and defense (The Guardian).

• Defense and Security: Prime Minister Takaichi committed to fundamentally reinforcing Japan's defense capabilities and pledged to accelerate the increase of defense spending to 2% of GDP ahead of schedule (Japan Times). The U.S. welcomed these measures, along with Japan's purchases of U.S. defense equipment.

Why This Matters
The Trump-Takaichi visit and the finalized agreements mark a significant, transactional shift in the nature of the U.S.-Japan alliance, primarily motivated by economic security and the geopolitical competition with China.

The $550 billion Japanese investment, tied to favorable tariff rates, not only boosts the U.S. industrial base in critical strategic sectors like energy, defense, and technology, but also improves the base for which the U.S. engages in other bilateral trade.

The rare earths agreement directly addresses a major strategic vulnerability for both nations by coordinating efforts to reduce reliance on China for materials vital to modern defense systems and digital technologies. Combined with Japan's accelerated commitment to the 2% defense spending target, the summit signals a renewed, unified, and capable leading cohort in the region, and one that is particularly geared for strengthening deterrence and promoting the "free and open Indo-Pacific" policy agenda.

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading!
— Nick