Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: October 6-12, 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Trump Threatens New Tariffs, Cancelling Meeting With Xi Over Rare Earths

Summary
On October 10, 2025, President Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States may implement a “massive increase of tariffs” on China. Trump also stated that there is “no reason” to meet with Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Summit. Trump’s post is in response to Beijing implementing global export controls on rare earth materials, effectively monopolizing the industry.

Findings

• U.S.-China Trade Progress: The U.S. and China have been engaged in trade negotiations—and a trade war—since Trump took office. Previously, reporting suggested that Trump would travel to the upcoming APEC Summit to meet with Xi and, hopefully, announce a trade deal (Reuters). Now, since Trump is imposing new tariffs and canceling a meeting with Xi, a deal is unlikely (Reuters).

  • Current Tariffs on China: Before Trump’s Truth Social post, the United States had a 30% tariff on China (CNN). Now, Trump has vowed to add a 100% tariff to Chinese products entering the U.S., totaling 130% (CNN).

• Rare Earth Industry: China reportedly processes 90% of the world’s rare earth materials used in industry and manufacturing (NPR). On October 9, 2025, China introduced new export restrictions on rare earth materials, apparently to curb U.S. defense and technology manufacturing and leverage trade negotiations with the United States (NPR).

Why This Matters
China’s desire to dominate the rare earth market is because of how critical those materials are for Beijing’s long-term regional strategy.

China’s primary motivation for dominating the rare earths market is to promote its relentless development of a “domestic, self-sufficient, semiconductor manufacturing industry” while Beijing is still able to procure semiconductor manufacturing equipment from the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands (U.S. Congress). A fully integrated semiconductor industry would allow China to rapidly advance its “intelligentized” warfare concept, produce advanced weapons systems, and accelerate advanced computing, which also support China’s social, political, and economic activities (U.S. Congress).

Taiwan Unveils Plans For New Air Defense System, Built In To 2026 Budget

Summary
On October 10, 2025, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te confirmed that his administration approved plans for the construction of a new “multi-layered air defense” system, dubbed “T-Dome.” Funds for T-Dome will be included in the budget proposal in the Legislative Yuan before the end of the year. Recent reports from Taiwan indicate that officials are growing concerned about China’s hybrid warfare tactics and a growing drone arsenal.

Findings

• Defense Boost: On October 10, 2025, President Lai stated that Taiwan’s defense spending increase serves a purpose; to promote Taiwan’s defense industry and develop systems to counter China’s strategic assets such as stealth fighters, missiles, drones, and aircraft carriers (Reuters).

  • T-Dome: President Lai did not provide specific details on the T-Dome, but he did allude to its purpose:

• Taiwan Defense Budget: Currently, Taiwan’s 2026 defense budget is projected to be more than 3.3% GDP, a historic increase for Taipei (Focus Taiwan). President Lai stated that funding proposals for T-Dome will be included in the budget proposal, which is due before the new year (Reuters).

  • China Threat: On October 9, 2025, the Taiwanese Defense Ministry published a report warning that China’s hybrid warfare and “gray zone” tactics are developing at a rapid rate alongside Beijing’s conventional capabilities, such as drones and missiles (Straits Times).

Why This Matters
A domestically produced, multi-layered air defense network suggests Taiwan aims to harden itself against the opening phase of a Chinese invasion: missile saturation, drone swarms, and electronic warfare designed to blind defenses before ground or amphibious forces mobilize. By framing air defense as an indigenous industrial project rather than just a procurement effort, Taipei is also positioning itself to reduce dependence on U.S. weapons deliveries, a critical move as Washington faces global force allocation strain between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

For the United States, a more self-reliant Taiwan lowers the immediate burden of direct defense assistance but may accelerate Beijing’s timeline for coercion if China perceives a closing window of military advantage. If T-Dome proves effective, it could serve as a model for other frontline states like the Philippines and Japan, further solidifying an Asia-wide layered defense architecture to counter China.

Japan Offers To Transfer Destroyers To Philippines

Summary
Japan and the Philippines are advancing plans for the transfer of up to six Abukuma-class destroyers, along with deeper cooperation on military technology. The move comes as both nations face increasing pressure from China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea. The acquisition would mark a major boost to the Philippine Navy, which currently lacks destroyer capabilities.

Findings

• Destroyer Transfer: The Philippine Navy is considering acquiring at least three of the six Abukuma-class destroyers offered by Japan due to them being scheduled for decommissioning (Zona Militar). The Abukuma-class is suited for anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare, a capability that would greatly expand Philippine naval capabilities (Zona Militar). Japan has restrictions on arms exports, so the transfer would likely be structured as a “joint development project” to comply with domestic law (Stars and Stripes).

  • Technology & Equipment Cooperation: During the Seoul Defense Dialogue, Japanese and Philippine defense ministers agreed to expand collaboration in defense equipment, including radar systems and destroyer transfers (Stars and Stripes).

Why This Matters
The proposed destroyer transfer and tighter weapons cooperation between Japan and the Philippines marks a continued growth in the U.S.-orchestrated security partnerships in the region. The transfer is also a positive-sum gain for Manila, which would gain real naval strike capacity for the first time, as well as increase its ability to conduct patrols in response to China’s continued naval incursions.

This is also for a win for the U.S.-led alliance, as it theoretically allows other assets to be deployed elsewhere, or to assist with critical mission sets during war (such as submarine hunting). Overall, great decision given that the ships would otherwise be decommissioned and scrapped.

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading!
— Nick