Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 15-21 September 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

PUBLICATION UPDATE: Due to my wedding and honeymoon, there will be limited publications from 27 September to 6 October. Thanks for understanding!

China Hosts Xiangshan Forum Amid Rising Regional Tensions

Summary
From 17 to 19 September, China hosted the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum under the theme “Upholding International Order and Promoting Peaceful Development.” The forum has drawn ~1,800 participants from over 100 countries, including military, diplomatic, and academic officials. China aims to use the event to advance its strategic diplomacy, highlight its military modernization, and promote its Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Governance Initiative (GGI).

Findings

• Participation: More than 100 countries are sending representatives to the forum, with lower-level U.S. diplomats participating (Modern Diplomacy, Reuters).

• Focus and Agenda: China is emphasizing national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and pushing back against “hegemonism and power politics,” implicitly targeting U.S. influence (China Daily, Modern Diplomacy). China has proposed the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and Global Governance Initiative (GGI) as alternative frameworks for global security and governance (China Daily).

  • GCI Core Principles: The GCI’s five core principles are: adhering to national sovereignty, following international law, practicing multilateralism, embracing a “people-centered approach,” and focusing on “concrete actions” (China Daily). Under GSI enforcement, in practice, the China-led initiatives would seek to develop international support and “buy-in” to discredit Western-led institutions, and the UN, to justify Chinese and Chinese-allied strategic goals, such as the invasion of Taiwan, forceful seizure of terrain in the South China Sea, or the annexation of nation-states and their territories (i.e. Ukraine).

Why This Matters
The Xiangshan Forum illustrates how China is leveraging strategic diplomacy to shape narratives about sovereignty, security, and global governance. It is particularly relevant not only because of China’s dominant economy and growing military, but also because Beijing uses its ever-more competent military to violate international law in pursuit of its strategic objectives, such as those regarding Taiwan, South China Sea claims, or Tibet and Xinjiang.

By promoting the Global Security Initiative and Global Governance Initiative as alternatives to Western-led frameworks, Beijing seeks to legitimize those strategic ambitions while deterring any substantial international resistance.

The participation also indicates where Chinese influence is gaining traction, which is particularly evident in the “Global South,” or in new blocs such as BRICS.

Trump Holds Phone Call With Xi, Announces Plans For Diplomatic Meetings

Summary
On 19 September 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump held a nearly two-hour phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two leaders described the conversation as “productive” and “pragmatic, positive and constructive.” Key topics were trade frictions, the TikTok deal, the fentanyl crisis, and the war in Ukraine. They also agreed to meet in person on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea in about six weeks, with possible reciprocal visits in early 2026.

Findings

• Trade and Economic Relations: President Trump claims he and Xi made progress of the sale of TikTok, a Chinese company, with Xi approving a sale framework (Reuters). Xi also reportedly urged Trump not to impose new tariffs on China while the two nations continue to negotiate a trade framework (The Economic Times).

• Geopolitics and Security: Trump stated he urged Xi to take a greater role in incentivizing Russia to reach a peace deal in Ukraine (Reuters). Trump also stated he addressed the fentanyl crisis in America, of which China is a major supplier (Reuters).

• Future Meetings: Trump stated that the first meeting he will have with Xi during his second term will be adjacent to the upcoming APEC summit in South Korea (Reuters). Trump also stated there are plans for bilateral visits in 2026 (The Diplomat).

Why This Matters
The Trump-Xi phone call is being framed as the opportunity for a “reset” of U.S.-Chinese relations, but ambiguity and sparse details suggest no real progress has been made on formalized trade or diplomacy. The only indication of warming relations and the potential for future deals or cooperation is the fact that both leaders praised the phone call as positive and constructive.

Trialteral Exercise Wraps As Resolute Dragon 25 Begins In Japan

Summary
On 19 September, American, Japanese, and South Korean forces concluded exercise Freedom Edge 25. This was the third iteration of the exercise and reportedly focused on enhancing “multidomain capabilities.” It also coincided with the start of exercise Resolute Dragon 25, a bilateral exercise between the United States and Japan that, for the first time ever, includes the deployment of the Typhon Mid-Range Capability (MRC) System.

Findings

• Freedom Edge 25: On 15 September, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan began Freedom Edge, the third iteration of the trilateral air and naval exercise (AP News). AP News states that the exercise is intended to improve the “capabilities in sea, air and cyberspace and is necessary to counter North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threats (AP News). This year’s iteration specifically focused on ballistic missile defense (BMD), defensive counter air (DCA), anti-surface warfare, maritime interdiction, counter-piracy, and replenishment-at-sea operations (USNI News). The exercise concluded on 19 September (USNI News).

• Resolute Dragon 25: RD25 will run from 12 to 25 September. The annual exercise is between the Japanese Self Defence Force (JSDF) and U.S. forces deployed to the Indo-Pacific area of responsibility (DVIDS). This year’s iteration is focusing on “Cross-Domain Operations,” expeditionary and littoral warfare, and defense of maritime terrain (DVIDS).

  • Typhon MRC System: On 15 September, the U.S. Army confirmed that Typhon MRC Systems are deployed to Iwakuni, Japan, for the first time (The Hill). The Typhon system is one of the Army’s premier Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) platforms (U.S. Congress). It utilizes existing Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) and Tomahawk cruise missiles for ground-based intercepts (U.S. Congress).

Why This Matters
The conclusion of Freedom Edge 25 and the concurrent start of Resolute Dragon 25 highlight the growing depth of U.S.-Japan-South Korea security cooperation in response to North Korea’s expanding nuclear and missile arsenal and China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.

In general, the execution of the exercises is being well received due to its reassuring American regional allies that existing security relationships and agreements are rock solid.

It will be interesting to see more media coverage on the Typhon deployment to Japan, and specifically what Beijing will say, because historically, China has denounced the deployment of the system to the region, most recently in the Philippines.

Taiwan Defence Ministry Publishes Updated Civil Defense Handbook

Summary
On 16 September, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense published a new civil defense handbook. The 2025 edition, titled “In Case of Crisis,” is an updated version of the “All-Out Defense Contingency Handbook originally published in 2022 and amended annually.

Findings

• Background: In 2022, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense published its first “All-Out Defense Contingency Handbook” (Taiwan MND). The publication was updated regularly, and sought to educate Taiwanese citizens on how the civilian and military sectors would integrate and cooperate during crisis (Taipei Times, AP News).

• 2025 Publication: The website for the “In Case of Crisis” document seeks to “provide important safety guidelines for every citizen” regarding “natural disasters, epidemics, extreme weather, or the threat of Chinese aggression” (Taiwan MND).
  The educational material is split into two sections, Material Preparation and Self-Help Knowledge:

  • Material Preparation: This section provides insights into daily home storage for sustaining oneself during a crisis, as well as constructing and maintaining an emergency shelter kit for sustainment when displaced from home (Taiwan MND).

  • Self-Help Knowledge: This section offers insights into “how to save yourself” during a crisis. It includes disaster response skills and resources, casualty management and basic first aid, discerning fake and legitimate media and crisis updates, and how to develop a mindset to persevere during a crisis (Taiwan MND).

• Apps: Alongside the new publication, Taiwan’s MND also directs citizens to a “Fire and Disaster Prevention e-Point App” and a “Police Service App,” both of which are available on the App Store and Google Play (Taiwan MND).

Why This Matters
The publication of the 2025 civil defense handbook should not come as a surprise, but it shows Taipei’s growing resolve in preparing for a potential conflict with China. It suggests an understanding in Taipei that civil society’s resilience and preparation are a critical component to national defense, and that modern military operations will require civil support.

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading!
— Nick