Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 11-17 August 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

CCG, PLAN Vessels Collide During Provocation Exercise, U.S. Vessels Respond

Summary
On 11 August, a Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessel collided with a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessel during a harassing maneuver against Philippine vessels. On 13 August, the U.S. Navy responded by deploying two vessels to the region. China claims it “drove away” the American vessels.

Findings

• Collision Incident: On 11 August, near the Philippines’ Scarborough Shoal, CCG Cutter Nanyu 3104 collided with PLAN Destroyer Guilin 164. In the video, CCG 3104 is trailing the Philippine Coast Guard when PLAN 164, showing intent to ram the Philippine vessel, collides with the CCG ship.
  Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Tarriela stated the damage had rendered the CCG vessel “unseaworthy.”

  • Chinese Statements: The CCG acknowledged that a “confrontation” took place at the Scarborough Shoal, but did not mention the collision or damage to Chinese vessels. China maintains that the maneuvers were lawful and in defense of Chinese territories.

• U.S. Navy Patrols: On 13 August, following the incident at the Scarborough Shoal, the U.S. Navy deployed the USS Higgins (DDG-76) and USS Cincinnati (LCS-20) to the region. Reports state that the vessels were shadowed by a Chinese ship and aircraft.
  China’s Defense Ministry stated that the U.S. vessels “illegally entered China’s territorial waters… without approval of the Chinese government” and that the action “severely undermines peace and stability in the South China Sea…”
  China claims to have driven the U.S. vessels out of the region after issuing a warning, a claim the U.S. Navy denies.
  The Scarborough Shoal sits well within the Philippines’ economic exclusive zone (EEZ).

Why This Matters
The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet stated in conducted the Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP) in accordance with international law. However, while the U.S. does have international legal protection due to UN charters, the patrols were meant to be a statement. First, that the U.S. would stand by its 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines and, second, that the U.S. will meet and challenge Chinese aggression wherever it manifests in the Indo-Pacific.

The Filipino-Chinese encounter was a prime example of the perpetual and frequent provocations in the region, whereby Chinese assets harass and provoke other ships to drive them away from contested territory. The collision, however, is a new escalation. The video really suggests that the PLAN vessel intended to ram the Philippine one, suggesting a growing willingness to approach hostilities by the Chinese.

The dual danger here is that if these operations continue, China will continue making incremental gains on contested regions, ultimately making legitimacy out of those claims. The second and more immediate danger is that these encounters could escalate and become conflict flashpoints, whereby an Indo-Pacific conflict emerges from an unnecessary and aggressive encounter.

Sources: BBC, CNN, ABC News, CNBC, South China Morning Post, USNI News

Australia, Philippines Launch Joint Exercises in South China Sea

Summary
Australia and the Philippines have commenced their largest-ever joint military exercises, named “Alon”, in the contested South China Sea. Featuring live-fire drills, beach assaults, and advanced platforms—including guided-missile destroyers, F/A-18 fighter jets, and C-130 transports—the operation underscores deepening defense cooperation amid rising regional tensions. The drills involve over 3,600 personnel and observers from the U.S., Canada, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Indonesia, and are scheduled to continue through 29 August.

Findings

• Scope and Scale: The drills, involving more than 3,600 troops, represent the largest Australia–Philippines military collaboration to date. Activities include live-fire exercises, amphibious landings, and aerial and maritime maneuvers using guided-missile destroyers, F/A-18s, and C-130 aircraft.

• Multinational Engagement: Military observers from the U.S., Canada, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Indonesia are present, signaling broader coalition interest in the exercises and regional stability

• Strategic Context: The drills occur amid heightened tensions in the South China Sea, following incidents such as the reported collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels at Scarborough Shoal and increased U.S. naval presence.

Why This Matters
The scale and visibility of Alon strengthens the Australia–Philippines defense relationship and signals to Beijing a robust regional deterrent capability that exists beyond American leadership and direction.

Participation by multiple allies demonstrates solidarity and shared resolve in upholding freedom of navigation in contested waters, and rejection of China’s aggressive ambitions in the region. The sophisticated live-fire and amphibious operations enhance joint readiness, operational coordination, and interoperability among regional partners.

Sources: Australian Government, Naval News, AP News

China Achieves Major Technology Goals In 14th 5-Year Plan

Summary
China reports to have made substantial progress in digital infrastructure and technological innovation throughout its 14th Five-Year Plan. According to Liu Liehong, Director of the National Data Administration (NDA), China now ranks second globally in total computing power and is making notable breakthroughs. Emerging technologies, such as AI, are expected to be significant parts of China’s 15th 5-Year Plan.

Findings

• Digital Infrastructure: By mid-2025, China had deployed 4.55 million 5G base stations and reached 226 million gigabit broadband users. The country now ranks second globally in computing power.

• Core Breakthroughs: China established a full integrated circuit industrial chain. Huawei’s HarmonyOS powers over 1.19 billion devices across 1,200+ product categories, while Chinese entities hold roughly 60% of global AI patents. Daily AI token consumption surged from 100 billion at the start of 2024 to more than 30 trillion by June 2025, underscoring the rapid expansion of AI applications.

• Digital Economy Growth: Software revenue rose 80% since 2020, while electronic information manufacturing added value increased 70%. Over 10,000 smart factories were established, and more than 100 new digital occupations emerged. The data industry grew 117% since 2020, reaching a market size of 5.86 trillion yuan ($817 billion).

• Strategic Roadmap: The National Data Administration announced plans for new data hubs in embodied intelligence, low-altitude economy, and biomanufacturing, alongside new regulations on data property rights and public data usage.

• Global Engagement: China signed 26 MoUs on digital economy cooperation and expanded Silk Road e-commerce partnerships to 33 countries. Beijing is advancing proposals on cross-border data flows and digital governance through the G20, APEC, and the Belt and Road Initiative.

Why This Matters
China’s technological progress shows its growing dominance in the industry, its growing global digital footprint, and the sudden shift to an innovation economy.

China’s technological advancement is also concerning due to supply chain reliance, the CCP’s surveillance state model, backdoor malware through Chinese products, and rapid development of emerging technologies like AI, for exmaple.

With computing power ranked second worldwide and dominance in AI patents, Beijing is positioning itself as a digital superpower, even more capable of advancing their challenge of U.S. dominance in space and cyber domains.

Sources: Global Times, South China Morning Post

South Korea Presents Roadmap To Recover Military Operational Control From The United States

Summary
On 13 August, the administration of South Korean President Lee announced its five-year policy roadmap, identifying the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON) from the U.S. to Seoul as a central national security objective. The plan reflects Lee’s pledge to strengthen South Korea’s defense autonomy while maintaining alliance commitments.

Findings

• Policy Roadmap: The Lee administration aims to complete OPCON transfer within five years, shifting wartime command authority from the U.S. Combined Forces Command to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.

• Background: Since the Korean War, U.S. commanders have held wartime operational control over South Korean forces under the U.S.–ROK alliance framework. Previous South Korean administrations have delayed OPCON transfer, citing regional threats and readiness gaps.

• Defense Autonomy: The administration links OPCON transfer to broader objectives of defense modernization, indigenous arms development, and strategic autonomy in responding to North Korea.

• Challenges: The timeline requires upgrades in command, control, and intelligence systems, as well as ensuring interoperability with U.S. forces. Washington has previously conditioned transfer on South Korea’s ability to effectively counter North Korean nuclear and missile threats.

Why This Matters
Reclaiming wartime OPCON would mark a major shift in the U.S.–ROK alliance, reshaping command structures and signaling Seoul’s intent to take greater ownership of its national defense. While enhancing South Korea’s sovereignty and defense posture, the move could also raise questions about operational readiness, alliance cohesion, and the credibility of extended deterrence against North Korea and China. For the U.S., it reflects a broader trend of allies seeking greater autonomy while still depending on American security guarantees.

Sources: The Korea Herald, NK News

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading!
— Nick