Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 28 July - 3 August 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Thailand, Cambodia Reach Initial Ceasefire

Summary
On 28 July, President Trump announced that his administration successfully mediated a ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia. Malaysia, the current chair of ASEAN, also assisted in negotiations. Despite the ceasefire, various violations by mortars and small arms fire were reported.

Findings

• Ceasefire: Thai and Cambodian officials met in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, for negotiations. The United States and Malaysia mediated talks. The ceasefire went into effect at 12:00 AM ICT on 29 July 2025.

• Ceasefire Violations: On 29 July, Thai Enquirer reported various Cambodian ceasefire violations along the shared border, including mortar and rocket artillery barrages, and small arms fire.
  The Royal Thai Army confirmed the ceasefire violations and ordered its personnel occupying defenses along the border to prepare for combat operations.

  As of 1 August, the ceasefire remains in place. Thai and Cambodian diplomats are reportedly scheduled to hold negotiations from 4-7 August to discuss long-term peace conditions and to address issues that have perpetuated cross-border skirmishes.

Why This Matters
While the U.S.-Malaysian brokered ceasefire is a good step and a sign of diplomatic normalization, the minor violations really underscore the fragility of Thai-Cambodian relations and the history behind these frequent border skirmishes.

One of the reasons Washington is so involved in negotiations is because of how a broader regional conflict could disrupt trade, and how these types of conflicts offer China an opportunity to expand its sphere of influence by offering economic, security, and diplomatic solutions to either side.

It will be interesting to see if Thailand and Cambodia actually reach a peace agreement through bilateral negotiations, because by all accounts, Thailand acted defensively and still dominated its Cambodian counterparts on the battlefield. But, Cambodia retains UN rulings on the border claims. With this in mind, it is possible that if a bilateral solution is not reached, the issue could be brought to the UN General Assembly in September.

Sources: U.S. Department of State, Royal Thai Army

U.S., South Korea Reach Trade Agreement

Summary
On 30 July, President Trump and President Lee announced a trade agreement. The deal was announced ahead of a reciprocal tariff deadline for 1 August. The deal includes South Korean investment in the U.S. economy and a liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal.

Findings

• Tariffs: The trade deal includes 15% tariffs on South Korean exports to the U.S., while American exports to South Korea have no tariffs. The Trump administration had planned to implement a 25% tariff on South Korea.

• Investment: The Trump administration’s announcement also states South Korea will invest $350 billion into the American economy, with the funds being “owned and controlled” by the U.S. government or American firms. The money will be used to boost shipbuilding, semiconductors, and biotechnology sectors.

• LNG Purchase: An additional $100 billion will be used to purchase American liquefied natural gas.

• Automobiles: President Lee confirmed that the deal will lift a previous 50,000-vehicle import cap for American cars in South Korea. The 15% tariff rate will apply to Korean automobiles entering the U.S.

• Materials: Existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper will remain unchanged.

Why This Matters
CSIS made a very down-to-earth assessment:

There is a case to be made that the strength of the deal, as alluded to by President Lee when discussing automobiles, is that its model aligns with the recent trade deals with Japan and the European Union; that Trump is establishing the building blocks for future negotiations while securing some U.S. interests and foreign investments.

For South Korea, this agreement provides a measure of stability in trade with its most important security partner. Avoiding the more severe 25% tariff that would have significantly damaged its export-heavy economy, particularly its auto industry, is a major win. The one point of concern is that the U.S. and South Korea, who operated under free trade since 2012, may have to fight and contend with U.S. interests to remain in Washington’s long-term strategic purview.

Sources: CNBC, CSIS, Fox Business

China, Russia Begin Joint Naval Drills

Summary
On 1 August, China and Russia launched “Maritime Interaction 2025” from Vladivostok, Russia’s far-east port city. The exercise will be conducted in the Sea of Japan until 5 August.

Findings

• Maritime Interaction 2025: This joint exercise is a part of Russia and China’s annual cooperation plan, itself a framework for deeper strategic integration between Moscow and Beijing. Both Russia and China maintain the exercise is not directed at any specific third-party adversary.

• Scope: The Russian Navy’s Pacific Fleet will host the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG). The partners will conduct maritime and land-based operations. Activities include anti-submarine warfare, air defense, search and rescue, and live fire exercises (LFEs).

  The anti-submarine warfare ship Admiral Tributs will lead the Russian contingent, while the destroyer Shaoxing will lead the Chinese group.

Why This Matters
The Maritime Interaction 2025 is symbolically significant for the growing Sino-Russian partnership, especially given Russia’s expensive and costly war in Ukraine.

RFE/RL reported, citing CSIS, that the Sino-Russian security integration has accelerated since the 2010s, with more than 60 combined exercises since 2014.

The timing and location of Maritime Interaction 2025 is also significant, as the Japanese Ministry of Defense released its annual defense white paper in July. In that paper, the Japanese MOD stated that Russian integration with China remains a growing strategic threat, and that Chinese incursions and challenges to Japanese sovereignty were likely to continue.

Sources: TASS, RFE/RL, Newsweek

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading!
— Nick