Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a premium exclusive of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 7-13 July 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Taiwan Launches Annual Han Kuang 41 Exercise Despite Chinese Threats

Summary
On 9 July, Taiwan commenced its annual Han Kuang military exercises. The exercise is the largest iteration to date, and is scheduled for 10 days and involves a record number of reservists. These drills are designed to simulate Taiwan’s defense of a full-scale Chinese invasion, including amphibious landings, cyberattacks, and "grey zone" tactics. The exercise fields newly acquired U.S.-made Abrams tanks and HIMARS rocket systems, underscoring Taiwan's enhanced defense posture amidst escalating Chinese military and economic pressure.

Findings

• Exercise Scope: Taiwan's Han Kuang 41 exercise will run from 9 to 18 July, and includes 24-hour operations. The associated drills involve all three services, and include a record mobilization of 22,000 reservists. This marks the longest and largest iteration of the drills to date.

• Training Objectives: Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense emphasized a "pragmatic approach" and emphasized the need to simulate various battlefield scenarios and responses to unexpected situations to enhance combat readiness. The exercises fully rehearse military operations for defense and civil-military coordination efforts.
  Drills are designed to counter a full-scale Chinese invasion, including "grey zone tactics" (such as harassment by Chinese Coast Guard), defending critical infrastructure, and anti-landing operations. Urban resilience drills, including public evacuation procedures, are also planned.

• Chinese Actions: China’s government has condemned the drills. On 8 July, before Han Kuang 41 commenced, the PLA conducted 20 aircraft sorties into Taiwanese airspace. The joint air and naval incursions were a part of the PLA’s perpetual incursion policy and were conducted under the guise of “joint combat readiness patrols.”
  On 9 July, the PLAN aircraft carrier Fujian was observed returning to port after successfully completing its 8th sea trial.
  On 11 July, footage of Chinese amphibious assault operations taking place near Fujian surfaced online.
  Chinese propaganda published by the CCP-controlled Global Times attempted to delegitimize the Han Kuang 41 exercise:

Why This Matters
Taiwan's expanded Han Kuang exercises, especially their length and emphasis on realistic, continuous combat, suggest a growing commitment to national defense against a growing likelihood of Chinese invasion.

These drills offer crucial insights into Taiwan's evolving defense strategy, the integration of new U.S. hardware, and its comprehensive approach to deterrence, which now overtly includes civil-military coordination and counter-information warfare. This heightened readiness, coupled with China's strong condemnations and ongoing "grey zone" activities, underscores escalating cross-strait tensions as 2027 approaches. Intelligence professionals will be closely watching the drills for operational readiness, command resilience, and the effectiveness of new defense assets, while also monitoring China's response.

One of the interesting aspects of the drills is how Taiwan coordinates its political and legal response into would-be wartime actions, such as authorizing lethal force and mobilization. If done well, this will help shorten kill chains (due to quicker military responses through legal authorities), which allows Taiwan to better diminish China’s stand-off and first-strike advantage. It also, theoretically, helps facilitate allied intervention (specifically Japan and U.S. assets based in Japan, or other regional assets).

Sources: Taiwanese MND, Taiwanese MND, Reuters, BBC, The Washington Post

Secretary Rubio Visits Malaysia For ASEAN Meeting; First Trip To Asia

Summary
On 10 July, Secretary of State Rubio arrived in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The trip is his first to Asia as Secretary of State. Rubio is attending meetings and conferences related to the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meeting. Rubio’s goal primary goal is to reaffirm U.S. regional alliances and commitments to “a free and open Indo-Pacific.” He has engaged in high-level bilaterals, including a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov on Ukraine peace talks and signing a civilian nuclear cooperation memo with Malaysia.

Findings

• First Asia Trip: Rubio's visit to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from 10 to 11 July, marks his first official trip to Asia since becoming Secretary fo State. He participated in the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, the ASEAN Post-Ministerial Conference (PMC), the East Asia Summit (EAS) Foreign Ministers' Meeting, and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Foreign Ministers' Meeting.

• Strategic Dialogue and Bilaterals:

  • Russia: Rubio held a significant bilateral meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, their second face-to-face encounter, discussing new ideas for Ukraine peace talks and broader U.S.-Russia cooperation.

  • Malaysia: Rubio met with Malaysian Prime Minister Ibrahim and signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Malaysian Foreign Minister Hasan on strategic civil nuclear cooperation, signaling intent for a formal agreement.

• U.S. Priorities: State Department officials stated Rubio's focus would be on maritime safety and security in the South China Sea where China's assertiveness is a concern. Concerns also included combating transnational crime. The broader objective is to strengthen U.S. relations in the Indo-Pacific to counter China's growing influence.

• Tariff Overhang: The visit is significantly complicated by new U.S. trade tariffs, announced by President Trump, set to be imposed on 1 August, affecting multiple ASEAN members (including Malaysia) and key U.S. allies. While U.S. officials maintain tariffs are not Rubio's primary focus, ASEAN foreign ministers are expected to express those concerns.

• Regional Dynamics: The conferences also involve Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. China has publicly agreed to sign the Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) treaty, a long-standing ASEAN objective. Discussions at the forum are also addressing the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, with calls to condemn violence against civilians.

Why This Matters
Secretary Rubio's inaugural trip to Asia carries significant geopolitical weight, underscoring the Trump administration's intent to re-engage with the Indo-Pacific from a position of foreign policy prioritization.

For U.S. policymakers, this visit is a crucial test of U.S. influence in a region increasingly courted by China, especially given the friction caused by new trade tariffs. It highlights the challenge of balancing "America First" trade policies and “Peace Through Strength” security postures with strategic-level diplomacy.

The outcomes of these meetings are vital indicators of future U.S.-ASEAN relations and the evolving power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific.

Sources: U.S. News, Reuters, U.S. State Department, U.S. State Department,

U.S. Signs Maritime Logistics Cooperation Agreement With Japan, Australia

Summary
On 11 July, representatives from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF), the U.S. Navy, and the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) formally signed the “Trilateral Naval Logistics Arrangement for Further Cooperation.” This landmark pact enhances interoperability for naval sustainment, including refueling, rearming, repairing, and resupplying ships across the three countries' forces. The agreement is designed to deepen military integration and improve wartime logistics, particularly in response to China's growing naval expansion and control of the First Island Chain.

Findings

• Agreement Details: The trilateral agreement, signed by senior naval logistics officers, focuses on enhancing "logistics interoperability" among the maritime forces. Key areas of cooperation include:

  • Refueling: Facilitates more flexible and efficient refueling of naval vessels at sea, including the potential for commercial tankers to refuel military oilers.

  • Rearming/Reloading: Streamlines the reloading of missile systems on warships, with ongoing development of compatible prototype systems for rapid at-sea transfers between U.S., Japanese, and Australian vessels.

  • Information and Technology Sharing: Enables easier sharing of information, new technologies, and processes for greater logistics resiliency.

• Significance and Context: This is the first formal trilateral logistics agreement among these three nations, building upon existing bilateral partnerships and a strategic dialogue framework. It deepens military integration and is explicitly aimed at enhancing deterrence capabilities in the Indo-Pacific. The pact comes amidst heightened tensions over China's increasing military activities and naval expansion in the region.
  Generally, such agreements and standardization of weapons, tactics, or operating procedures are a step towards formal defense pacts, such as NATO.

• Operationalization and Exercises: The agreement's principles and capabilities are intended to be operationalized by 2026. The signing occurred just prior to the official kickoff of Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025, a major multinational military drill involving 19 nations, including Australia, Japan, and the U.S., where many of these new logistical capabilities and joint activities will be tested and rehearsed.

Why This Matters
The improvement of coordinated logistics and extended supply lines is a welcome and critical step in planning for conflict across the Indo-Pacific region. While this agreement improves the collective ability of Japan, the U.S., and Australia to support their navies across long distances and for extended durations, what it really does is prepare the U.S.-led alliance for a war with China; a war in which the U.S. may lose its foothold in the First Island Chain, withdraw, and launch a naval/island hopping campaign against the PLA.

Adequate logistics means these combined forces can operate more cohesively during crisis or wartime operations, with greater coordination also improving deterrence.

Sources: U.S. Navy, Nikkei Asia, Breaking Defense

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading. Have a nice Sunday.

— Nick