Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 26 May - 1 June 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Chinese Activity Highlights Increased Risks To Taiwan’s Outlying Islands

Summary
In late May, various Chinese naval maneuvers, patrols, and incursions have been observed around Taiwan’s outlying islands, specifically Kinmen. China’s persistent and growing incursions, coupled with small boat activity, suggest China may try to seize Taiwan’s outlying islands, via political or forceful means, before conducting an invasion of Taiwan.

Findings

• Chinese Coast Guard Activity: On 26 May, Radio Taiwan International reported that Chinese Coast Guard vessels entered Taiwanese waters after intentionally disengaging their AIS — the Automatic Identification System — a violation of International Maritime Organization regulations.
  On 27 May, CCG vessels entered Kinmen waters, marking two days of observed incursions.

• Increase in Small Boat Landings: May reporting claims that Taiwan's Coast Guard has documented five separate incidents involving 38 Chinese nationals illegally landing on Taiwanese shores using small vessels, including inflatable boats that are difficult to detect via radar. On 20 May, the Taiwanese Coast Guard announced it was requesting additional resources to combat a significant increase of small boat incursions.
  It is likely that the CCP is incentivizing Chinese nationals to land on Taiwan’s outlying islands to engage with the local populace and, over time, foment displeasure with Taipei and grow appeal for sovereignty under Beijing.

• PLA Navy Drills: On 28 May, Reuters reported that China has been “sending an unusually large number of naval and coast guard vessels through a swathe of East Asian waters” this month.
  On 28 May, one of those incursions was significant. The PLAN aircraft carrier Liaoning, alongside four other vessels, was spotted conducting operations off Taiwan’s coast and near the Japanese-administered Senkakus.

Why This Matters
China’s continued naval incursions reflect an unrelenting commitment to Taiwanese reunification via “Salami Slicing” tactics and the pursuit of “9-Dash Line” claims in the South China Sea.

Additionally, a May report by the DIA supports this assessment, particularly the claim that China may increase its pursuit and destabilization of Taiwan’s outlying islands. The report, for the same reasons mentioned above, stated Beijing could increase its activities around Taiwan’s outlying territories and move from maneuvers to seizure operations.

Sources: RTI, Reuters, Focus Taiwan, Taiwan News, DIA, USNI News

Russia, North Korea Discuss Deeper Strategic Cooperation

Summary
On 28 May, Russia’s Vice Minister of Internal Affairs met with North Korea’s Vice Minister of Public Security in Pyongyang to discuss greater strategic cooperation. The meeting is one of the first higher-level meetings between Russian and North Korean officials since President Putin visited Pyongyang to sign a mutual defense treaty in 2024.

Findings

• Security Collaboration: The discussions focused on enhancing cooperation and exchange between the two nations' internal security agencies. This aligns with recent reports of deepening military ties, including North Korea's provision of munitions to Russia for use in Ukraine.

• Infrastructure Development: The two countries have initiated infrastructure projects to bolster their partnership, such as the construction of a new bridge over the Tumen River, facilitating increased economic cooperation and connectivity.

• Strategic Alignment: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has expressed a commitment to strengthening ties with Russia, viewing the partnership as a counterbalance to Western influence and sanctions.

Why This Matters
The deepening relationship between Russia and North Korea has significant implications for regional and global security. Their collaboration, particularly in military and infrastructure domains, challenges existing sanctions regimes and could alter the strategic balance in Northeast Asia. Monitoring this alliance is crucial for understanding shifts in geopolitical dynamics and preparing appropriate policy responses.

Sources: Reuters

U.S., Philippines Launch Exercise KAMANDAG 9

Summary
On 26 May, the U.S. and the Philippines launched the multinational exercise KAMANDAG 9 across the Philippine archipelago. The exercise aims to improve multilateral defense capabilities and enhance joint force operability. It ends on 6 June.

Findings

• Participants: The exercise involves forces from the Philippines, United States, Japan, Republic of Korea, and the United Kingdom, reflecting a broad commitment to “a Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”

• Geographic Scope: Training activities are conducted across Luzon, Batanes, Tawi-Tawi, and Palawan, with opening and closing ceremonies held at Marine Barracks Rudiardo Brown in Manila.

• Advanced Weapon Systems: The U.S. Marine Corps has deployed the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) to Batan Island, approximately 120 miles south of Taiwan. This system is designed to launch precision Naval Strike Missiles from land, enhancing anti-ship capabilities in contested littoral zones.

• Joint Operations: The U.S. Army has repositioned its High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to coordinate with NMESIS for simulated strike scenarios, aiming to deny maritime access from dispersed positions. The Marine Rotational Force Darwin is also conducting Command and Control operations.

Why This Matters
KAMANDAG 9 serves as another substantial demonstration of multinational commitment to maintaining stability and security in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly after the recent, historic iteration of the Balikatan exercise.

The deployment of advanced missile systems like NMESIS and HIMARS potentially enhances the collective deterrence posture against Chinese air and maritime threats, but it is more of a show of force and an exercise in expeditionary tactics for C2-led units and systems.

Furthermore, the exercise strengthens the operational readiness and interoperability of participating forces, ensuring we have a coordinated response for regional contingencies.

Sources: PACOM, Army Recognition, USNI

Secretary Hegseth Warns Of China Threat, Asserts U.S. Focus

Summary
On 30 May, speaking at the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth addressed China’s rapidly growing conventional and unconventional military capabilities. He also emphasized greater urgency for cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and that the region is central to American foreign policy.

Findings

• Imminent Threat Assessment: Hegseth characterized China's threat as "real" and potentially "imminent," highlighting concerns over Beijing's military preparations for a possible invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

• Call for Increased Defense Spending: Hegseth urged regional allies to elevate their defense budgets, suggesting a benchmark of 5% of GDP, akin to commitments made by some NATO members.

• U.S. Commitment to Taiwan: Hegseth reaffirmed the United States' dedication to defending Taiwan, stating that under President Trump's leadership, a Chinese invasion would not be permitted.

• China's Military Expansion: Hegseth condemned China's militarization efforts, including the construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea and advancements in hypersonic weaponry.

• International Reactions: China dismissed Hegseth's remarks as provocative, accusing the U.S. of destabilizing the region. Meanwhile, some allies expressed support for the U.S. stance but voiced concerns over American trade policies under the Trump administration.

Why This Matters
Secretary Hegseth's address underscores a significant shift in U.S. defense strategy, prioritizing the Indo-Pacific region and signaling a renewed commitment to countering China's growing influence. This is particularly important given concerns that the Trump administration would abandon Indo-Pacific allies in favor of isolationism and bilateralism.

The emphasis on increased defense spending among allies reflects a concerted effort to enhance collective security and deterrence capabilities in the face of potential regional conflicts, as does calls for a collective defense organization.

It is more likely that the U.S. will begin constructing a formal defense pact against China, especially 2027 draws near and the PLA’s military aggressions expands.

Sources: U.S. Department of Defense, AP News, Tessaron News, The Daily Beast

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading!

Nick