Pacific Weekly #52

Small boat incursions, a PLA operation in the Taiwan Strait, and a ramming incident in the Spratly Islands.

Author

Nick
May 25, 2025

Pacific Weekly #52

Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 19-25 May 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. In mid-May, Taiwan’s Coast Guard reported that an increase in small boat incursions from China is threatening the island’s security. The incursions have mostly coincided with now-common PLA air and naval incursions. The incursions are perceived as a “gray zone” tactic used to undermine Taiwanese sovereignty, deplete resources, and place personnel with CCP connections on the island. Taiwan’s Coast Guard is seeking to enhance its surveillance and interdiction capabilities, including through cooperation with international partners.

2. On 20 May, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te marked one year in office. China’s PLA conducted amphibious landing drills in the Taiwan Strait at the same time. The timing and nature of these drills are perceived as a direct response to President Lai's leadership, which is characterized by advocacy of Taiwan's sovereignty and calls for strengthened deterrence against China.

3. From 22 to 23 May, China hosted high-level meetings between senior military leaders from Thailand and the PLA. These meetings highlight China’s desire to expand its military ties and strategic posture in the region. Both parties agreed to enhance joint military cooperation.

4. On 21 May, two Philippine research vessels conducting marine scientific studies near Sandy Cay in the South China Sea were aggressively intercepted by the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG). The incident involved the use of water cannons and ramming, resulting in damage to one of the Philippine vessels and endangering crew members. The Philippines condemned the actions as a violation of its sovereignty and international law, while China defended its actions, asserting territorial claims over the area.

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Taiwan Experiencing Increase In Small Boat Incursions From China

Summary
In mid-May, Taiwan’s Coast Guard reported that an increase in small boat incursions from China is threatening the island’s security. The incursions have mostly coincided with now-common PLA air and naval incursions. The incursions are perceived as a “gray zone” tactic used to undermine Taiwanese sovereignty, deplete resources, and place personnel with CCP connections on the island. Taiwan’s Coast Guard is seeking to enhance its surveillance and interdiction capabilities, including through cooperation with international partners.

Findings

  • Increase in Small Boat Landings: In May, reports claim that Taiwan's Coast Guard has documented five separate incidents involving 38 Chinese nationals illegally landing on Taiwanese shores using small vessels, including inflatable boats that are difficult to detect via radar.

  • Symbolic Acts and Propaganda: One incident involved a Chinese individual planting a flag on a Taiwanese beach, an act recorded and shared on Chinese social media, suggesting a psychological operations component to these incursions

  • Challenges in Coastal Surveillance: The small size and low radar profile of these boats exploit gaps in Taiwan's coastal surveillance, prompting the Coast Guard to request “special funding” for surveillance enhancements.

  • Persistent PLA Activities: These incursions occur alongside regular PLA air and naval exercises near Taiwan, including live-fire drills and frequent crossings into Taiwan's air defense identification zone.

Why This Matters
The uptick in small boat incursions represents a strategic challenge for Taiwan, stretching its maritime surveillance and response capabilities. These actions, coupled with ongoing military provocations, form a multifaceted pressure campaign by China to test and erode Taiwan's defenses and public confidence. Taiwan's proactive measures, including seeking international cooperation for joint maritime operations, underscore the island's commitment to safeguarding its sovereignty and maintaining regional stability.

Sources: BBC, ANI, Reuters, SCMP, ABC News

PLA Launches Drills Coinciding With Taiwanese President’s One-Year Anniversary In Office

Summary
On 20 May, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te marked one year in office. China’s PLA conducted amphibious landing drills in the Taiwan Strait at the same time. The timing and nature of these drills are perceived as a direct response to President Lai's leadership, which is characterized by advocacy of Taiwan's sovereignty and calls for strengthened deterrence against China.

Findings

  • PLA Amphibious Exercises: The PLA's 73rd Group Army executed near-shore driving and landing operations with armored amphibious vehicles on a beach in Fujian province. Soldiers involved in the drills expressed readiness for combat, emphasizing the practical nature of their training.

  • President Lai's Stance: In his anniversary address, President Lai reiterated Taiwan's commitment to peace and dialogue with China but emphasized the necessity of bolstering the island's defenses. Lai’s statements suggest that Taiwan will pursue a two-state solution, which China’s “One China” principle rejects. With a “diplomatic” solution off the table, that escalates Beijing’s option of “forced reunification,” an option Xi Jinping looks to achieve no later than 2027.

  • China's Response: Beijing, which views President Lai as a separatist, dismissed his overtures for dialogue as insincere. The PLA's drills are seen as a demonstration of China's displeasure with Lai's administration and a warning against any moves toward Taiwanese independence.

Why This Matters
The PLA's amphibious drills near Taiwan serve as a stark reminder of the escalating military posturing in the region. While Taiwan seeks peaceful relations, China's actions underscore its unwillingness to engage in dialogue under the current Taiwanese leadership. The proximity of these exercises to Taiwan-controlled territories raises concerns about potential miscalculations that could lead to unintended conflict. As Taiwan continues to strengthen its defenses, including the development of new drone units, the international community watches closely, aware that stability in the Taiwan Strait is crucial for regional and global security.

China Strengthens Military Cooperation With Thailand

Summary
From 22 to 23 May, China hosted high-level meetings between senior military leaders from Thailand and the PLA. These meetings highlight China’s desire to expand its military ties and strategic posture in the region. Both parties agreed to enhance joint military cooperation.

Findings

  • Ministerial-Level Discussions: Admiral Dong Jun, China's Minister of National Defense, met with General Songwit Noonpackdee, Chief of Defence Forces of the Royal Thai Armed Forces. The discussions focused on expanding military cooperation, joint training exercises, and enhancing mutual trust between the two armed forces.

  • Central Military Commission Engagement: General Liu Zhenli, Chief of Staff of China's Central Military Commission (CMC) Joint Staff Department, held talks with General Songwit Noonpackdee. The meeting emphasized strategic communication and coordination, aiming to strengthen the military partnership and address regional security challenges collaboratively.

Why This Matters
These high-level engagements between China and Thailand signify a concerted effort to enhance military collaboration in Southeast Asia. By fostering closer defense ties with Thailand, China aims to solidify its strategic foothold in the region, promote stability, and counterbalance other geopolitical influences. Such partnerships are pivotal in shaping the security architecture of the Asia-Pacific, with implications for regional power dynamics and collective defense strategies.

Chinese Coast Guard Continues Incursions, Non-Lethal Aggressions On Filipino Vessels

Summary
On 21 May, two Philippine research vessels conducting marine scientific studies near Sandy Cay in the South China Sea were aggressively intercepted by the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG). The incident involved the use of water cannons and ramming, resulting in damage to one of the Philippine vessels and endangering crew members. The Philippines condemned the actions as a violation of its sovereignty and international law, while China defended its actions, asserting territorial claims over the area.

Findings

  • Incident Details: The Philippine vessels BRP Datu Sanday and BRP Datu Pagbuaya were conducting routine marine research near Sandy Cay when they were intercepted by CCG vessel 21559, supported by CCG 5103 and two maritime militia ships. The CCG used water cannons and sideswiped the Datu Sanday twice, causing damage to its port bow and smokestack, and endangering the lives of the civilian crew.

  • Philippine Response: The National Maritime Council (NMC) of the Philippines condemned the incident as "aggressive interference" and a serious breach of international law, emphasizing that the vessels were operating within Philippine territorial waters.

  • Chinese Position: China's Coast Guard claimed that the Philippine vessels "illegally intruded" into Chinese waters and "dangerously" approached the Chinese ship, resulting in the collision. China did not confirm the use of water cannons but stated that its actions were lawful enforcement measures.

  • International Reactions: The United States, through Ambassador MaryKay Carlson, condemned China's actions as "reckless and unlawful," reaffirming support for the Philippines and the importance of upholding international law in the region.

Why This Matters
This incident marks a significant escalation in the South China Sea disputes, highlighting China's increasingly assertive tactics in enforcing its territorial claims. The use of force against civilian research vessels conducting lawful activities within another nation's territorial waters raises serious concerns about regional stability and the potential for conflict.

The timing of the event is also significant, as a few weeks ago, China deployed personnel to Sandy Cay for a flag-raising and to formally claim the island as Chinese. The Philippine government responded by condemning the act, asserting Manila’s ownership of the island, and by deploying forces there to reclaim it.

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading! Happy Sunday.

Nick

This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.