Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 12-18 May 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Trump Admin Secures Initial Trade Deal With China

Summary
On 11 May, President Trump’s negotiators secured an initial trade deal with China following negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The deal reportedly reduces tariffs and hostile economic strategies by implementing a 90-day tariff reduction period and a path towards future negotiations.

Findings

• Tariff Changes: In a joint statement, both countries agreed to suspend 24 percentage points of their respective additional tariffs for 90 days, reducing U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 34% to 10% and Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods from 34% to 10%.

• Removal of Additional Tariffs: The U.S. will withdraw tariff increases announced in early April 2025, while China agreed to pause or eliminate non-tariff retaliatory actions.

• Dialogue Framework: Both parties committed to continued discussions on economic and trade relations, with designated representatives from each country to facilitate these talks.

• China’s Strategic Framing: According to a Yahoo Finance analysis, China views the deal as a political and economic win. Xi Jinping's refusal to offer major concessions on industrial policy or military tech exports has not resulted in the kind of sanctions escalation many expected. In fact, Chinese markets rallied following the agreement, and Beijing is portraying the outcome as evidence that its assertive stance toward the West is paying off.

Why This Matters
This agreement represents a significant step toward resolving the trade disputes that have strained U.S.-China relations and impacted global markets. By reducing tariffs and committing to ongoing dialogue, both nations aim to stabilize their economic relationship and address longstanding issues such as trade imbalances and market access.

The negotiations also improve the general diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing, a relationship that has deteriorated, especially due to the complex security environment in the Indo-Pacific region.

Sources: The White House, The White House, The White House, Yahoo Finance

China Proposes Security Reform For UN Peacekeeping, Continues To Manipulate International Institutions

Summary
On 15 May, during the UN Peacekeeping meeting in Berlin, Germany, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun presented a six-point proposal aimed at reforming United Nations peacekeeping operations. While framed as a commitment to global peace, The Intel Brief assesses that this initiative aligns with China's broader strategy to enhance its influence within international institutions while the CCP legitimizes illegal actions in the Indo-Pacific.

Findings

• Six-Point Proposal:

  1. Advancing the Global Security Initiative through unity, cooperation, and mutual benefit in addressing international security challenges.

  2. Enhancing training for peacekeeping professionals and organizing high-level strategic seminars.

  3. Expanding training sessions to improve operational capabilities of participating countries.

  4. Improving the readiness and capabilities of China's peacekeeping standby forces.

  5. Advocating for the UN's central role in global peace and security.

  6. Facilitating the utilization of new technologies in UN peacekeeping operations.

• Propaganda: CCP-managed outlets like Global Times framed the proposal as proof of China’s “responsible major power” role, portraying Beijing as a stabilizing force versus alleged Western chaos. The Global Times piece that was published in conjunction with Jun’s proposal aims to portray China as a leader in international unity and law when, in fact, Beijing’s military and hybrid forces consistently violate and ignore international rulings in the Indo-Pacific (e.g. Taiwan Strait, Senkakus, and Scarborough Shoal violations).

• Institutional Influence Campaign: The initiative coincides with broader efforts by Beijing to shape the rules and norms of international organizations to align with its strategic interests, including pushing Chinese leadership in UN peacekeeping and standard-setting bodies.
  Additionally, if China’s proposal is adopted, it could offer Beijing the opportunity to deploy Chinese troops to conflict zones under a UN banner, giving the PLA much-needed real-world experience.

Why This Matters
China’s six-point UN peacekeeping proposal is not merely about operational reform — it represents a calculated step in Beijing’s long-term campaign to reshape and influence international institutions.

By promoting sovereignty-first principles and expanding its peacekeeping footprint, China is positioning itself as a decision-maker within the UN system while simultaneously working to constrain the West’s ability to leverage Liberal objectives. If adopted without pushback, China’s framework could limit future UN missions’ effectiveness in crises like civil wars or ethnic cleansing, where host-state consent is politically or morally compromised. For the U.S. and its allies, this raises critical questions about how to preserve the UN’s impartiality and operational integrity amid growing authoritarian influence.

Sources: China News, Global Times

Taiwan Prepares For Large-Scale Chinese Drills As Presidential Anniversary Nears

Summary
As Taiwan marks the first anniversary of President Lai Ching-te’s administration, signs point to an increased likelihood of a large-scale People’s Liberation Army (PLA) military exercise around the island. President Lai, a vocal proponent of Taiwanese sovereignty, has warned that China may intensify pressure through hybrid and conventional military activities. Recent patterns in PLA air and naval operations, paired with regional politics, suggest Beijing may leverage the anniversary as a trigger for escalatory messaging.

Findings

• PLA Activity Spike: Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) reported a surge in PLA activity in early May, with over 40 aircraft and 10 naval vessels detected in a 24-hour window. Some incursions crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait — a previous red line Beijing increasingly disregards.

• Defensive Posture and Drills: In response, Taiwan conducted its own readiness drills, including live-fire and civil defense exercises. President Lai visited key military installations and reaffirmed Taiwan’s defensive resolve in public statements.

• Beijing’s Timing: The PLA has historically timed major exercises to coincide with politically sensitive events in Taiwan, such as elections or leadership transitions. With Lai's administration completing its first year on May 20, Chinese military action would align with Beijing's pattern of psychological warfare and coercive signaling.

• Political Messaging from Beijing: Chinese state media and the Taiwan Affairs Office have intensified rhetoric against Lai, accusing him of “separatist provocations.” Analysts at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences have also suggested that larger exercises could “send a necessary warning.”

• Historical Precedent: Following Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022, China launched live-fire exercises encircling the island, firing missiles over Taipei and simulating blockades. In 2024, the PLA launches Exercises Joint Sword-2024A and Joint Sword-2024B. So far in 2025, China’s incursions by aircraft and naval vessels are up, but the PLA concluded a two-day wargame around Taiwan in April.

Why This Matters
The first anniversary of President Lai’s administration is a typical window for Beijing to escalate pressure on Taiwan. A large-scale PLA military exercise — potentially including encirclements, live-fire drills, or amphibious practice landings — would serve both domestic propaganda and strategic deterrence objectives for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

For the U.S. and Indo-Pacific allies, such an event would test crisis management channels, strain deterrence postures, and risk military miscalculation. PLA activities also carry long-term consequences for Taiwan’s defense planning, civil resilience, and global supply chain security.

Sources: Reuters, Reuters, SCMP

Taiwanese Coast Guard Organizing Joint Exercises With Foreign Militaries Amid PLA Gray Zone Tactics

Summary
Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is reportedly discussing with several countries — including the U.S., Japan, the Philippines, and Australia— conducting joint humanitarian exercises in the Taiwan Strait. The initiative aims to counter China's increasing use of "gray zone" tactics, such as deploying coast guard (CCG) and maritime militia (CMM) vessels to assert pressure without direct military confrontation. These proposed exercises are part of Taiwan's broader strategy to enhance regional cooperation and resilience against coercive actions from Beijing.

Findings

• Strategic Partnerships: CGA Deputy Director-General Hsieh Ching-chin confirmed that Taiwan is engaging with "certain countries" to plan joint humanitarian exercises. These discussions involve nations like the U.S., Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, reflecting a collective interest in maintaining stability in the Taiwan Strait.

• Response to Gray Zone Activities: China has intensified its gray zone operations, including the use of coast guard and maritime militia vessels to challenge Taiwan's sovereignty and regional security norms. These actions often involve harassment of Taiwanese vessels and attempts to assert control over contested waters without escalating to open conflict.

• Enhancing Capabilities: Taiwan is considering the development of air support capabilities, particularly long-range reconnaissance, to improve its response to Chinese incursions. This move aims to bolster Taiwan's situational awareness and readiness in the face of persistent gray zone challenges.

• International Cooperation: By collaborating with regional partners on humanitarian exercises, Taiwan seeks to demonstrate a united front against coercive tactics and reinforce the importance of freedom of navigation and adherence to international law in the region.

Why This Matters
China's employment of gray zone tactics (AKA “Salami Slicing”) presents a complex challenge to regional stability, as these actions blur the lines between peace and conflict. You will frequently hear these tactics classified as “military operations below the threshold of war,” or similar.

Taiwan's decision to organize exercises with foreign militaries is a new and proactive response to an issue that, frankly, has yet to be addressed effectively: it enhances Taiwan's defensive capabilities, deters further coercive actions by showcasing international support, and reinforces the commitment to a rules-based international order. One could also suggest that the more Taiwan and its allies counter these Chinese tactics, the more their effects can be degraded.

Sources: ABC News Australia, The Tribune, Taipei Times

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading. Have a wonderful Sunday.

Nick