Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 5-11 May 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

China Imposes Fishing Bans, Controls In International Waters

Summary
On 6 May, Newsweek reported that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had imposed a unilateral moratorium on fishing in contested or shared maritime zones. The ban affects areas of the South China Sea, Yellow Sea, and Taiwan Strait. The ban raises questions as to whether China will use the ban as a pretext for increased naval aggression in areas it claims from sovereign states like Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Findings

• Scope of the Ban: China’s fishing moratorium, announced in late April and effective through mid-August, covers both Chinese domestic fleets and foreign vessels operating in vast swaths of contested maritime zones. This includes waters recognized under international law as exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of other nations, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines.

• Enforcement Signals: Chinese officials stated the ban will be enforced by the China Coast Guard (CCG) and maritime militia (CMM), signaling an intent to patrol and potentially confront foreign vessels under the guise of environmental protection. Past patterns suggest China may increase naval and paramilitary presence in these waters during the ban period.

• Regional Pushback: Vietnamese and Philippine officials have already rejected the legitimacy of the Chinese moratorium, calling it a violation of international maritime law, including the 2016 Hague ruling which invalidated China’s South China Sea claims. Japan and South Korea also view China’s actions as infringements on their maritime rights, raising the likelihood of diplomatic protests and regional naval friction.

• Precedent and Pattern: This is not China’s first fishing moratorium in contested areas, but analysts note the timing coincides with increased geopolitical tensions, including the end of U.S.-Philippines joint military drills and expanded U.S. naval patrols. Beijing has a history of using such bans to assert “effective control” over disputed regions.

Why This Matters
The Chinese fishing ban is not just an environmental measure — it is a geopolitical maneuver with direct implications for regional security. By unilaterally asserting control over international waters, China tests the resolve of neighboring states and the credibility of international maritime law.

For U.S. policymakers and military analysts, the moratorium period represents a likely flashpoint for escalated maritime confrontations, especially as the U.S. reinforces its alliance commitments to the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. Monitoring Chinese naval, coast guard, and maritime militia activity during this time will be critical for assessing China’s coercive tactics and anticipating potential incidents that could trigger broader regional conflict.

Sources: Newsweek, Vietnam+, ANN, The Embassy of the Philippines

Xi Jinping Vows “Inevitable” Reunification Of Taiwan As U.S. Weapons Deliveries Increase

Summary
Xi Jinping was quoted as stating that the Chinese reunification of Taiwan would be “the final and inevitable” end of the Cross Strait relationship. Xi made these statements in a Russian Gazette article before his appearance at Moscow’s 80th anniversary of the end of WWII. At the same time, U.S. weapons deliveries to Taiwan have increased, indicating increased support from Washington in deterring the Chinese threat.

Findings

• Xi’s Statements: Xi Jinping asserted that China’s reunification with Taiwan is inevitable, citing WWII agreements (Cairo, Potsdam) and UN Resolution 2758 as legal foundations. He praised Russia’s firm support for the one-China principle and its opposition to Taiwan independence.
  In addition to calling the event inevitable and unstoppable, Xi stressed that resistance would be an untenable position.

• U.S. Weapons Deliveries: Despite Xi’s remarks and trade tensions dominating the media cycle, Army Recognition reports that the U.S. has quietly increased the delivery of weapons to Taiwan.
  Taipei Times and the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense reported that shipments related to an arms package — scheduled for 2027 deliveries — has increased. Taiwan is awaiting deliveries associated with the following:

  • 84x ATACMS missiles

  • 29x M142 HIMARS systems

  • 64x precision-guided rockets

  • 2x training simulation software packages

  • 38x M1A2T Abrams Main Battle Tanks (MBT)

Why This Matters
Xi Jinping’s renewed vow of “inevitable” reunification raises the stakes in the Taiwan Strait, signaling that Beijing may increasingly frame military action as a legally justified or historically inevitable course, especially as international conditions evolve. For U.S. policymakers and military planners, the escalation in rhetoric coincides with concrete Chinese military preparations and demands a sharpened deterrence posture.

The U.S. weapons deliveries — including advanced missile systems, precision-guided munitions, and armor — are more than symbolic; they directly enhance Taiwan’s asymmetric defense capabilities and extend the window of deterrence. However, they also risk provoking sharper Chinese countermeasures, including military exercises, gray-zone actions, or cyberattacks designed to warn both Taipei and Washington.

For regional allies like Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, Xi’s statements combined with U.S. military support increase the urgency for joint planning, integrated air and missile defenses, and multilateral coordination under the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific security architecture. This moment reflects the broader trajectory of U.S.-China great power competition, where Taiwan remains the sharpest potential flashpoint. How Washington and its partners respond in the next 12–18 months will shape not only Taiwan’s security but the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.

Sources: Army Recognition, Taipei Times, China Daily

U.S., Philippines Conclude Exercise Balikatan 25

Summary
On 9 May, the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) concluded Exercise Balikatan 25 alongside multilateral partners. This year, the exercise included more than 14,000 personnel from Philippine, American, Australian, and Japanese militaries.

Findings

• Scale and Participation: Exercise Balikatan 25 involved over 14,000 troops, making it one of the largest iterations of the annual exercise to date. U.S. forces contributed approximately 11,000 personnel, with the Philippines deploying 3,000 and additional forces coming from Australia and Japan.

• Joint and Combined Operations: The exercise featured amphibious assaults, live-fire drills, cyber defense operations, coastal defenses, and air-ground integration missions, all focused on enhancing interoperability among allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.

• Maritime Focus: A significant portion of Balikatan 25 took place near contested waters in the South China Sea, including coordinated naval drills, anti-ship missile testing, and joint air patrols, signaling a strong commitment to upholding freedom of navigation and maritime security.

• New Capabilities Tested: For the first time, the U.S. Marine Corps deployed its NMESIS (Navy/Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System) anti-ship missile system during Balikatan, enhancing allied coastal defense and demonstrating the Corps’ evolving stand-in force concept.

• Regional Strategic Signaling: The participation of Japan’s Self-Defense Forces marked an expansion of the exercise’s multilateral nature, reinforcing regional cooperation amid rising Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

Why This Matters
Balikatan 25 represents a key pillar of U.S. strategy to strengthen alliances and partnerships across the Indo-Pacific, particularly under the framework of integrated deterrence against China. The exercise’s focus on maritime and coastal defense underscores a shift toward countering gray-zone threats and potential high-end conflict scenarios near flashpoints like the South China Sea.

For the Philippines, the exercise boosts military readiness and sends a clear message of resolve in defending territorial integrity, especially amid ongoing tensions with Chinese maritime forces. For U.S. policymakers and military planners, Balikatan 25 highlights the importance of continued investment in forward-deployed capabilities, joint force integration, and multilateral defense arrangements to maintain a favorable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. It also suggests the Trump administration is following through on its promise to bring Indo-Pacific issues to the forefront of U.S. foreign policy, despite recent tariffs.

Sources: DVIDS, U.S. Pacific Command

U.S., China Engage In High-Level Trade Discussions

Summary
On 9 May, senior U.S. and Chinese officials convened in Geneva to initiate high-level trade negotiations aimed at de-escalating a rapidly intensifying tariff conflict. The U.S. delegation, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer, met with Chinese Vice Premier Lifeng. These talks represent the first significant diplomatic engagement between the two nations since President Trump imposed substantial, retaliatory tariffs on Chinese imports earlier this year.

Findings

• Escalation of Tariffs: In April 2025, President Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs, raising duties on Chinese imports to 145%. China responded with retaliatory tariffs of 125% on U.S. goods. These measures have significantly disrupted bilateral trade, affecting over $660 billion in annual commerce.

• Economic Impact: The tariff increases have led to a 21% decline in China's exports to the U.S. in April, prompting China to redirect trade to other regions, including ASEAN countries, Latin America, and Africa.

• Negotiation Objectives: While a comprehensive resolution is unlikely in the immediate term, both sides aim to establish a framework for ongoing dialogue. Discussions may include potential reductions in tariff rates and addressing broader issues such as China's trade practices and the fentanyl crisis.

• U.S. Trade Policy Stance: The Trump administration maintains a baseline 10% tariff on imports from most countries, signaling a continued protectionist trade approach. The administration has expressed openness to adjusting tariffs on Chinese goods, contingent upon China's cooperation.

Why This Matters
The initiation of U.S.-China trade talks marks a critical juncture in international economic relations. The ongoing tariff war has not only strained bilateral ties but also disrupted global supply chains and heightened the risk of a global economic downturn. The outcome of these negotiations will have far-reaching implications for international trade norms, economic stability, and geopolitical dynamics. A successful de-escalation could restore confidence in global markets, while failure to reach an agreement may exacerbate economic uncertainties and tensions between the world's two largest economies.

Sources: Time, BBC, AP News

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thanks for reading, and see you tomorrow!

Nick