Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 21-27 April 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

CCP Publishes Propaganda Campaign, Justifies Military Actions In Indo-Pacific

Summary
On 24 April, the CCP’s Global Times published a propaganda piece dismissing U.S. claims that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is specifically developing capabilities to defeat the United States. Simultaneously, China's Ministry of National Defense (MOD) asserted that recent naval operations near Japanese waters are lawful under international maritime law.

Findings

• PLA's Military Development:
  The Global Times article responded to U.S. assertions that China's military advancements, including hypersonic missile capabilities, are aimed at countering U.S. forces. Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang refuted these claims, stating that such narratives are obstacles to China-U.S. military relations and stem from a "persecution complex" within the U.S. He emphasized that China seeks "no conflict, no confrontation, and peaceful coexistence" with the United States.

• Naval Operations Near Japan:
  In response to concerns over Chinese naval vessels transiting Japanese territorial waters, the MOD stated that such movements are consistent with international law, specifically the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The MOD emphasized that these activities are legitimate and should not be construed as provocations.

• Philippine Incursions: Chinese naval forces have also continued their incursions into Philippine territorial waters to enforce illegal sovereignty claims. Note how China uses international law and “salami slicing” to establish a new operational norm.

Why This Matters
China's simultaneous dismissal of U.S. concerns and justification of its military activities in the Indo-Pacific reflect a strategic communication effort to assert its regional presence while deflecting international criticism. By framing its actions as lawful and defensive, China aims to legitimize its expanding military footprint and challenge U.S. influence in the region. These narratives contribute to the broader geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific, with implications for regional stability and international maritime norms.

Sources: Global Times, China MOD

U.S., Philippines Launch Exercise Balikatan 25

Summary
On 21 April, the annual Balikatan exercise began in the Philippines. This iteration is the most expansive one yet, and is the preeminent military exercise between Washington and Manila. The drills, running from April 21 to May 9, are designed to enhance interoperability and readiness in response to escalating tensions in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. The exercise features full-scale battle simulations, deployment of cutting-edge missile systems, and participation from allied nations, underscoring a unified stance against regional security challenges.​

Findings

• Unprecedented Scale and Scope: Balikatan 2025 marks the largest iteration of the annual exercise, with approximately 9,000 U.S. and 5,000 Filipino troops, alongside 200 Australian personnel. Observers from 16 other nations, including Japan, are also present. The drills encompass aerial surveillance, live-fire ship sinking, island defense operations, and special forces exercises in strategically significant areas such as the Batanes Islands near Taiwan.

• Deployment of Advanced Weaponry: The U.S. Marine Corps has introduced the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) and the Marine Air Defense Integrated System (MADIS) to the Philippines for the first time. NMESIS, equipped with the capable Naval Strike Missile, is designed for anti-ship operations, while MADIS targets unmanned aerial systems. Both systems are mounted on Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTVs) and will undergo live-fire drills, enhancing coastal defense capabilities.

• Strategic Focus on the South China Sea: Exercises are concentrated in Northern Luzon and the Batanes Islands, areas proximate to Taiwan and the contested South China Sea. Activities include simulations of repelling island attacks and maritime defense operations, reflecting concerns over Chinese military assertiveness in these regions.

• Enhanced Multinational Collaboration: For the first time, Japanese forces are actively participating in Balikatan, joining U.S., Philippine, and Australian troops. The inclusion of additional observers from various countries signifies a growing international commitment to maintaining a “free and open Indo-Pacific.”

• China's Response: China has expressed strong opposition to the drills, particularly criticizing the deployment of U.S. mid-range missile systems in the Philippines. Chinese officials warn that such actions could destabilize the region and escalate tensions, especially concerning Taiwan.

Why This Matters
Balikatan 2025 represents a significant investment in joint military preparedness between the U.S. and the Philippines, signaling a robust response to increasing regional threats, particularly from China.

The deployment of advanced missile systems and the focus on strategically sensitive areas show a growing multilateral commitment to deterrence and defense.

My original estimate was that it is very likely that China’s PLA will conduct incursions on the exercises with aerial and naval observations. It is also likely that the PLA will conduct further naval incursions against Philippine ships and islands in the South China Sea, especially in areas China claims as its sovereign territory. This was confirmed on 26 April when China seized an island contested with the Philippines (see last section).

Sources: AP News, Defense News, The Warzone, The Diplomat, U.S. Pacific Command 

Global Taiwan Institute Warns Of Growing Chinese Infiltration

Summary
At a seminar hosted by the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, D.C., U.S. intelligence experts highlighted the escalating efforts by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to infiltrate Taiwan's political, military, and digital spheres. The panel emphasized the CCP's use of ideological and cyber warfare tactics to undermine Taiwan's sovereignty and democratic institutions.​

Findings

• Targeting Leadership: The PLA is increasingly focused on gathering real-time intelligence on Taiwan’s presidential security, applying lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

• United Front Influence: The CCP is expanding efforts to co-opt Taiwanese elites and political parties through cultural and local government outreach.
  Currently, some KMT opposition politicians are under investigation for voter recall fraud, an issue that began due to suspicion of KMT alignment with Beijing.

• Cyber Infiltration: Chinese actors have penetrated Taiwan’s critical infrastructure, including hospitals and insurance systems, mirroring cyber tactics used against the U.S.

• Call for Stronger Defenses: U.S. experts urged Taiwan to enhance counterintelligence and cyber defenses to resist escalating CCP hybrid warfare tactics. For example, Taiwan Plus reported that more than 600 Chinese nationals illegally entered Taiwan through a loophole with a dental clinic.

• Expanded Lobbying Efforts:
  CCP-linked firms have dramatically increased lobbying efforts in the United States, reportedly hiring lobbyists connected to former Trump administration officials.
  These efforts seek to influence U.S. policymakers toward positions more favorable to Beijing, indirectly impacting U.S. policy toward Taiwan.

Why This Matters
The insights from the Global Taiwan Institute seminar explored the comprehensive scope of the CCP’s infiltration campaign against Taiwan. By targeting political leaders, exploiting cultural ties, compromising digital infrastructure, and increasing influence operations in the United States, Beijing aims to erode both Taiwan’s domestic stability and international support base.

The expansion of CCP-linked lobbying in the U.S. further highlights that the competition for Taiwan’s future is not isolated to the Indo-Pacific—it also plays out within the American political system. Strengthening counterintelligence, closing legal loopholes, and raising public awareness about the CCP's influence operations are critical steps to safeguard Taiwan’s democracy and U.S. national interests in the region.

Sources: Taipei Times, AllSides

China Continues To Employ Maritime Militia For Hybrid Warfare Operations, Push CCP Strategy

Summary
A report by CMSI details how China's Maritime Militia has evolved into a critical tool for the CCP’s gray-zone operations at sea. Chinese Maritime Militia members are trained intelligence collectors and paramilitary actors, operating under the direction of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and China’s security services.

Findings

• Core ISR Mission: China’s maritime militia systematically collects and reports intelligence to support the PLA’s situational awareness. Intelligence gathering is not incidental — it is a core mission embedded across militia operations in strategically important waters.

• Dedicated Reconnaissance Units: Specialized “maritime reconnaissance” units, numbering likely in the hundreds across coastal regions, are staffed with trained “information personnel” assigned to information boats dedicated to surveillance missions.

• Tactical Advantages: Militia vessels are widely dispersed, familiar with local waters, and perceived by the PLA as less provocative than deploying navy ships or coast guard forces, enabling persistent low-profile monitoring without escalating tensions.

• Command and Control: Intelligence activities are closely coordinated with the People’s Armed Forces Departments (PAFDs), which manage militia missions and relay reports directly to operational PLA units.

• Global Expansion: China is likely extending maritime militia ISR operations abroad, leveraging distant-water fishing fleets and Chinese-flagged merchant vessels for covert intelligence collection far beyond Asia-Pacific waters.

• Competency Across the Force: While individual militia intelligence personnel may have lower technical training compared to PLA specialists, the sheer scale of the force ensures a baseline intelligence capability across China's expansive maritime theater.

Why This Matters
China's weaponization of its civilian fleets represents a deliberate gray-zone strategy to erode international law at sea without crossing thresholds that would trigger armed conflict. U.S. and allied forces must adapt their maritime rules of engagement and intelligence collection to account for these hybrid threats, which are increasingly central to Beijing’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

Sources: China Maritime Studies Institute

Chinese Coast Guard Seizes Contested Island Near Philippine Military Outpost

Summary
On 26 April, the Chinese Coast Guard seized the contested island of Sandy Cay in the South China Sea. The island is situated near Thitu Island which hosts one of the Philippines’ most important, forward-deployed naval outposts.

Findings

• Assertion of Sovereignty: The Chinese Coast Guard raised the Chinese flag on Sandy Cay, declaring sovereignty over the reef. This is the first time in years that China has formally seized contested territory.

• Strategic Timing: The move coincides with the U.S. and Philippines conducting their largest annual military exercise, Balikatan, which includes coastal defense and island seizure drills near the Spratly Islands.

• Increased Tension: It is unclear if China intends to build a permanent structure on Sandy Cay, or if dredgers will be deployed to grow the island. However, the escalation could mean a greater response from the Philippines.

Why This Matters
China's occupation of Sandy Cay underscores its growing assertiveness in the South China Sea and its use of coast guard and militia assets to reinforce expansive territorial claims. This development raises concerns about the potential militarization of disputed features and challenges to regional stability.

The development is also beyond symbolic significance, as the territorial claim technically gives China the rights to territorial waters (backed by international law), meaning forces could be deployed there to monitor and enforce activities within — and around — those waters. China could leverage this to legitimize its illegal incursions and aggressions against Filipino vessels in the region.

Sources: Financial Times

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thanks for reading!

Nick