Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 3-9 March 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

U.S.-China Tensions Continue To Dip Amid Tariffs, CCP Two Sessions

Summary
China’s embassy in Washington stated China is ready to fight “any type of war” with the United States. The statement came as the Trump administration implemented new tariffs on China, a point President Trump highlighted during his address to Congress. The event was preceded by the beginning of China’s Two Sessions, which included the announcement of a 7.2% defense spending increase by Beijing.

Findings

• Two Sessions: The Two Sessions, also known as Lianghui, is the name for the consecutive meeting of China’s major political bodies — the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). The NPC is China’s highest legislative body, with all other state bodies being subservient to it despite the fact that, in practice, Xi Jinping rules with absolute authority as a Paramount Leader (holding the positions of President, Chairman, General Secretary). The CPPCC is the advisory body to the united front system, China’s network of CCP-loyal or controlled entities.
  On 5 March, the NPC convened to begin this year’s Lianghui. It is expected to continue to 8 March.

• Escalatory Rhetoric: On 4 March, during President Trump’s address to Congress and in retaliation to new tariffs on China, the Chinese Embassy in the United States stated that Beijing is “ready to fight” any war — trade or kinetic — with the United States.

• China Defense Spending: On 5 March, China announced it will increase its 2025 defense spending by 7.2%, totaling roughly $245 billion.

• Hegseth’s Interview: In an interview with Fox News, Secretary of Defense Hegseth stated the United States is “prepared” for war with “powerful, ascendent countries with very different ideologies.” Hegseth highlighted Trump’s “Peace Through Strength” policy approach, but that Trump’s strong relationship with Xi Jinping could be called on to simmer tensions and establish mutually beneficial arrangements.
  Interestingly, on 3 March, the U.S. State Department took the time to make a distinction between the ruling elite — the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) — and the Chinese people, indicating U.S. hostility for the CCP and not Chinese citizens.

Why This Matters
Taken at face value, China’s statements and indirect threats would normally be interpreted as posturing. Because of Trump’s sanctions, media are interpreting China’s remarks as defensive and retaliatory; justified remarks and responses reflective of a Beijing that views itself as provoked.

While a degree of this is true, China’s decision to increase its defense spending — which has followed two weeks of intense, large-scale, and live-fire military exercises across the Pacific — indicates Xi Jinping, his CCP, and his PLA are rapidly pursuing their goal of seizing Taiwan in 2027.

What experts and policy makers need to be aware of, however, is whether or not recent developments have accelerated that rough timeline. For example, Taiwan Semiconductor recently invested over $100 billion in the U.S., and is moving some facilities stateside from Mexico. At the same time, Taipei and Washington have been quietly negotiating a new arms deal.

In regards to China’s more subversive measures, Beijing has refined its United Front operations in Taiwan, to the degree that it has drawn the attention of U.S. lawmakers. Also on Washington’s radar is the CCP’s influence over the Kuomintang (KMT) party in Taiwan’s legislature. These factors indicate Beijing has significantly increased its influence campaigns in addition to overt military growth, posturings, and aggressions.

So, while those should be the long-term strategic questions for our leadership to answer, I want to point out that Xi Jinping followed a similar “Soft Power” formula during the Biden administration. Xi Jinping previously pressured the Biden admin into revealing its intentions on security and trade by threatening conflict and a trade war. In this case, in the short-term, Xi Jinping may be attempting to get the Trump admin to reveal some of its goals, especially since the State Department — and proposed legislation — suggest Washington may officially recognize Taiwanese sovereignty; a decision that could lead to a formal strategic partnership with Taipei.

Certainly lots to think about…

Sources: AP News, VOA, The Guardian, ABC News

PLA Navy Continues Provoking Maneuvers Near Australian Coast

Summary
From 3 to 8 March the PLAN Task Group 107 conducted provocatory patrols off of Australia’s coast near Perth. The patrols follow a controversial PLAN live-fire exercise in the region and propaganda pieces by the Global Times warning Western powers to “adapt” to new realities regarding Chinese military operations.

Findings

• PLAN Task Group 107: This naval task group includes the frigate Hengyang, cruiser Zunyi, and replenishment vehicle Weishanhu.
  From 21-22 February, Task Group 107 conducted the live-fire drills between Australia and New Zealand that disrupted commercial flights.

• Recent Patrols: The PLAN Task Group have patrolled an area between 150 and 630 nautical miles off the coast of Perth. The Australian government stated the patrols, while in international waters, “remains in the vicinity of Australia’s maritime approaches,” implying a disruption to commercial vessels near Perth.

• Threats: While the CCP have characterized the patrols as normal, legal patrols, Chinese military bloggers took to social media to espouse nationalist rhetoric.
  Chinese military bloggers suggested the PLA could seize Australia within 48 hours due to Australian defense forces being dispersed across the country.

Why This Matters
China’s growing interests in willingness to provoke Australia is interesting. It is possible China is conducting these operations for two primary strategic regions:

• Show the world China is capable of conducting sustained, blue water naval operations outside of China’s sphere of influence.

• Deter Australian support for the U.S.-led alliance, or deter it from intervening in a Taiwan scenario.

I would also add that China’s growing influence in the region, such as with Samoa, indicate Beijing’s long-term desire to unseat Australia’s influence over Oceania.

Sources: Australian Government, The Week, ALCON Intelligence, ALCON Intelligence

BlackRock Purchases Ports At Panama Canal Entrances

Summary
BlackRock is leading an international consortium to purchase ports around the Panama Canal. BlackRock and its partners are spending upwards of $19 billion to purchase ports owned by CK Hutchison Ports, a Hong Kong based company.

Findings

• BlackRock Purchase: BlackRock is leading an international consortium that will purchase 80% of CK Hutchison Ports, including 90% of Panama Ports. Panama Ports operates two critical ports on each side of the canal.

  • Balboa Port (Pacific side)

  • Cristobal Port (Atlantic side)

  Investor’s Business Daily reports that the sale is valued at $19 billion.

• Chinese Influence: President Trump previously stated that the CCP controlled the Panama Canal despite its neutrality being formalized in Panama’s constitution. NBC News reports that CK Hutchison — the Hong Kong based company — is selling 90% of its Panama Ports.
  On 10 January, the Council on Foreign Relations released a report on China’s increased presence and influence in South America, much of which included economic and infrastructure projects through the Belt and Road Initiative.

Why This Matters
The BlackRock deal could end up being a major U.S. victory, as it may allow more favorable costs for U.S. ships transiting the canal. Additionally, in a crisis or wartime scenario, it could make nationalizing the canal easier. Through BlackRock ownership, the U.S. theoretically has a greater influence on how the canal is run and which nations are granted access.

In regards to controlling the Western hemisphere, this is a major advantage.

Sources: Atlas News, CFR, Investor’s Business Daily, NBC News

U.S. Marine Corps Actives Littoral Combat Team In Okinawa

Summary
On 3 March, the final Littoral Combat Team within the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment was stood up in Okinawa.

Findings

• 12th Littoral Combat Team: On 3 March, the 12th Littoral Combat Team was stood up at Camp Hansen, Okinawa, Japan. The 12th Littoral Combat Team is the last of three subordinate elements in the 12th Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR).

  The 12th MLR is currently made up of nearly 2,000 Marines. It includes a Combat Logistics Battalion and Littoral Anti-Air Battalion.

• Role: The 12th MLR is the Marine Corp’s newest concept for ground-units and is intended to make them more capable of conducting missions in an expeditionary manner. This means being highly-mobile and highly-lethal in the littorals of the Pacific, all while being able to operate with limited sustainment.

Why This Matters
The 12th MLR was created in November 2023 and is intended to be the epitome of Force Design 2030 in practice; its brings various Marine Corps capabilities — such as infantry operations, logistics, anti-ship and anti-air, and other fires — to one cohesive expeditionary unit.

With the growing threat in China, the Marine Corps also has a growing need for units that can seize littoral terrain (like islands), self-sustain, and deny enemy access and operational freedom in the region.

While the 12th MLR is the most forward deployed, the 3rd Littoral Regiment operates out of Hawaii with a third being stood up in Guam soon.

Sources: Stars and Stripes, DVIDS

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thanks for reading. If you have questions, comments, or concerns please send me an email: [email protected] 

Enjoy your Sunday,

Nick