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This is your Monday morning briefing.

Reporting Period: October 9-13, 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Israel, Hamas Reach Gaza Ceasefire Deal

Summary
On October 9, Netanyahu’s Cabinet formally adopted President Trump’s 20-Point Peace Plan for Gaza. The adoption was made following successful negotiations between the U.S., Israel, and Hamas in Egypt. IDF forces began their initial withdrawal from Gaza.

Findings

• 20-Point Peace Plan: On October 3, 2025, the White House published President Trump’s 20-point plan for ending the war in Gaza (X, BBC). The plan includes some notable conditions, such as the reconstruction of Gaza, hostage and prisoner exchanges, troop withdrawals, humanitarian aid deliveries, Gaza governance, and economic investment (BBC). Trump’s terms state that the plan will go into effect 72 hours after Israel publicly accepts the terms, which implies Israel will validate Hamas’ compliance before ceasing military operations.

• Egypt Negotiations: On October 4, Israel reportedly agreed to the terms of Trump’s peace plan, which prompted negotiations to continue in Egypt. American, Israeli, and Hamas delegates met in Egypt to negotiate details of the peace plan (Al Jazeera).

• Israeli Cabinet Adoption: On the evening of October 9, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet reportedly adopted the peace plan, formally committing to its implementation (AP News, BBC).

  • Adherence and Implementation: On October 10, Israel stated that the ceasefire is in effect and that IDF forces began their first withdrawals (CNN). IDF officials stated that Israeli forces will still be operating in some areas of Gaza (CNN). Hamas forces appear to be adhering to the ceasefire conditions. Red Cross workers and other humanitarians have entered parts of Gaza to assist with recovery (CNN).

  • Operation Returning Home: During the ceasefire’s implementation, the IDF launched “Operation Returning Home” to coordinate the handover of hostages and verify compliance there. Expedient and complete hostage exchanges are one of the conditions for advancing and upholding the ceasefire.

Why This Matters
If the ceasefire holds, then the conditions will be set for the war to end. Once Israeli forces and Hamas militants cease fighting, then humanitarian, political, and economic efforts to rebuild and govern Gaza will begin.

The elements of Gaza’s reconstruction and governance are more gray, but Trump’s plan does include conditions for rebuilding Gaza and investing in growth there, as well as conditions to establish an impartial government.

U.S. Providing Ukraine Intelligence To Conduct Long-Range Strikes Inside Russia

Summary
Between 9–12 October 2025, reporting confirmed that U.S. intelligence agencies have been providing precise targeting data to Ukraine for strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. These efforts reportedly include satellite surveillance, electronic intercepts, and “pattern of life” analysis used to guide long-range drone and missile attacks on Russian oil refineries, storage depots, and logistics hubs. While U.S. officials deny direct involvement in target selection, sources suggest Washington is enabling offensive operations inside Russian territory.

Findings

• U.S. Intelligence Support: Reuters reported that U.S. intelligence agencies are providing “detailed targeting information” for Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, citing four unnamed U.S. and European defense officials (Reuters). Financial Times reported that U.S. reconnaissance assets are being used to “refine targeting cycles” against refineries deep inside Russian territory (Financial Times).

• Growing Support for Ukraine: Earlier in May 2025, the Trump administration had already relaxed strike restrictions, allowing limited cross-border engagements. But following the breakdown of peace negotiations with Russia, Trump vowed to increase support for Ukraine in September.

  Current officials quoted by Reuters say U.S. agencies now provide pattern-of-life analyses and structural vulnerability assessments, indicating active operational support beyond prior defensive frameworks (Reuters).

• Depleting Russia’s Energy Capacity: At least four facilities, including Tuapse Refinery, Kirishi Refining Complex, and depots in Bryansk and Belgorod, were struck in the past month (RIA Novosti). These attacks reportedly disrupted 5–8% of Russia’s total refining capacity, forcing fuel rerouting and temporary shutdowns.

  • Russian Accusations: The Kremlin has formally accused Washington of assisting Ukraine with its offensive strikes inside Russia, including those on industrial facilities that support Russia’s energy production (RT).

Why This Matters
Whether the United States is assisting Ukraine carry out offensive strikes inside Russia or not, the fact that the Kremlin believes this to be the case is a significant escalation to the proxy side of the war in Ukraine. It is very likely to degrade the likelihood of peace negotiations being planned and executed. It is also very likely to deteriorate the U.S. and Western relations with Russia, China, and the “multipolar” bloc.

President Trump previously stated that the United States would support Ukraine more when negotiations broke down, and in that statement, he suggested Ukraine could win the war and regain its lost territory. So while the U.S. assistance may have originally been to cripple Russia’s leading revenue stream and pressure negotiations, it is now primarily a significant boost to Ukraine’s ability to prosecute the war and, potentially, take an offensive stance for the first time since the war began.

European Union Launches Digital Entry/Exit System

Summary
On October 12, 2025, the European Union began the rollout of its Entry/Exit System (EES) across the Schengen Zone. The system collects biometric and travel data from non-EU travelers, including UK citizens, to monitor entries and exits and strengthen border security. Full implementation is expected by April 2026.

Findings

• Scope and Implementation: The EES requires travelers who are not EU citizens to submit facial images, fingerprints, passport details, and travel dates at Schengen border crossings and ports of entry (EES). Travelers will receive electronic entry/exit records to monitor duration of stay and compliance with visa rules (EES, Reuters).

  • Purpose: The EU says the system is being implemented to improve border security and prevent overstays, reduce processing time at border crossings, and support law enforcement by tracking patterns of movement (EU Commission). The EES will also feed into a larger EU integrated border management framework and can be accessed by national authorities and Frontex, the EU’s equivalent of Border Patrol and CBP.

Why This Matters
The EES represents a significant step in the EU’s push for integrated border control and digital surveillance. It is likely to negatively impact travel to the EU, especially from the United States, over concerns for personal privacy and security.

While the system enhances the EU’s ability to track foreign nationals and malign actors traversing the EU, many are viewing the decision as a sudden and extreme shift. Politically, the EU is facing criticism for the EES given the unchecked migration of undocumented migrants, criminals, and asylum seekers across the continent.

End Brief

That concludes this brief. See you Thursday!

Thank you for reading!
— Nick