Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.
Good morning,
I hope you had a nice holiday weekend. Let’s get up to speed on the major events that occurred.
Reporting Period: November 27 - December 1, 2025
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. On November 26, a strategic operational plan for Germany was leaked to the public. The OPLAN is reportedly 1,200 pages in length and details plans for German, NATO, and civil integration in the event of war with Russia.
2. On November 30, Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted a Ukrainian delegation in Florida. The diplomats discussed priorities for peace terms with Russia. The Ukrainian delegation immediately returned to Ukraine to report back to President Zelenskyy and presumably coordinate next steps. American diplomats are arriving in Russia today.
3. President Trump recently declared Venezuela’s airspace as closed. The decision was denounced by Venezuela and some in the region as aggressive and colonialist. U.S. strikes and military build-ups have continued.
German Operation Plan Leaks, Details Plans For War With Russia
Summary
On November 26, a strategic operational plan for Germany was leaked to the public. The OPLAN is reportedly 1,200 pages in length and details plans for German, NATO, and civil integration in the event of war with Russia.
Findings
Strategic Plan Leaked: On November 26, The Wall Street Journal reported that a 1,200 page Operational Plan (OPLAN) for Germany was leaked to the public (The Wall Street Journal). Despite details being leaked, Germany is progressing with the implementation of OPLAN DEU (Euronews). The plan details how Germany will prepare for potential war with Russia (Euronews).
OPLAN DEU: Operational Plan Germany was drafted in response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine (Bundeswehr). It details how German and NATO forces will be mobilized in the event of war with Russia, and details Germany’s role as a central hub for logistics, troop deployments, and operational planning (Bundeswehr).
Purpose: The Bundeswehr claims the OPLAN was drafted to align Germany’s “Cold-start capability, warfighting readiness, and resilience” as well as civil-military integration (Euronews, Bundeswehr).
Bundeswehr Role: While details remain classified, an OPLAN DEU pamphlet details the Bundeswehr’s core tasks as “national and collective defense,” implying a deterrence and defense-centric fighting force (Bundeswehr).
Intelligence Warning: On November 25, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul confirmed that new intelligence suggests Moscow is preparing for military operations against NATO, and that conventional conflict could begin by 2029 (Fox News).
Additionally, OPLAN DEU details some risks to German and NATO mobilization, such as aging infrastructure, administrative and legal oversight, and personnel and recruitment issues (Euronews).
Why This Matters
First and foremost, the OPLAN leak raises questions about Germany and NATO’s Operational Security (OPSEC). Second, it reportedly displays Germany’s unpreparedness in the face of Russian aggression, both conventional and hybrid, in Europe.
This will be something to keep a close eye on, as well as Germany’s efforts to recoup its recruitment, as reporting seems to suggest the United States will depart assets from Europe and reshuffle its focus to the Pacific. In plain terms, Germany may be expected to lead an initial European or NATO response against Russia in the event of continental or global conflict, not the United States.
Ukrainian Delegation Meets With U.S. Officials, Americans Head To Moscow
Summary
On November 30, Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted a Ukrainian delegation in Florida. The diplomats discussed priorities for peace terms with Russia. The Ukrainian delegation immediately returned to Ukraine to report back to President Zelenskyy and presumably coordinate next steps. American diplomats are arriving in Russia today.
Findings
U.S.-Ukraine Meeting: On November 30, Secretary Rubio, alongside envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, hosted Rustem Umerov (Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council) and his staff (Rapid Response).
Rubio seemingly praised the progress that was made, and said the meeting was about “ending the war” so that Ukraine can remain “independent and sovereign” and avoid a war with Russia in the future (Rapid Response).
The talks reportedly included details on Ukrainian elections, land swaps, and future security guarantees (WSJ).
Complications: Leading up to the meeting in Florida, prior reporting suggested that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia may be further away than desired:
Ukraine: On November 27, The Atlantic reported that, before his resignation due to corruption, Andrii Yermak (former head of Ukraine’s Office of the President) stated that under Zelenskyy, Ukraine would not give up territory to Russia (The Atlantic).
Russia: On November 27, President Vladimir Putin stated that while the U.S.-Ukraine peace draft could be the basis for a peace deal, Russia is prepared to “fight to the last Ukrainian” (Reuters, ABC News). Russian drone and missile strikes, as well as some offensive pushes, have continued amid peace talks.
Putin also stated that Russia would consider signing a pledge to not attack Europe in the future (Reuters).Europe: While not fully substantiated, reports claim that Europe has developed strike packages for Russia in response to Moscow’s persistent hybrid warfare operations (Express).
Why This Matters
So what is next? Reporting claims that as Ukraine’s delegation is returning to Kyiv to brief Zelenskyy, U.S. officials are headed to Russia. Kushner and Witkoff are reportedly meeting with Russian officials to discuss advancing a peace deal (WSJ).
While U.S., European, and Ukrainian interests seem to be converging towards a mutually acceptable peace offer, we cannot be certain of Russia’s commitment to peace negotiations. Additionally, given the corruption scandal in Ukraine, Putin could be entertaining talks to gauge interests, delay decisions and expend resources before withdrawing, thereby growing civil frustration and dissatisfaction.
U.S. Closes Venezuelan Airspace Amid Strikes On Cartel Vessels, Troop Buildup
Summary
President Trump recently declared Venezuela’s airspace as closed. The decision was denounced by Venezuela and some in the region as aggressive and colonialist. U.S. strikes and military build-ups have continued.
Findings
Venezuelan Airspace: On November 29, President Trump took to social media to declare Venezuela’s airspace as closed (X). In response, the Venezuelan government issued a communique denouncing the decision and the “colonialist threat” in Washington (RT). Similarly, Cuba’s Chancellor Bruno Rodriguez denounced the decision as an aggressive act beyond American authority (X).
As of November 30, few flights remained over Venezuelan airspace, with most regional aircraft rerouting around Venezuela’s national borders (Flight Radar 24).
Military Buildup: On November 13, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth launched Operation Southern Spear to combat narco-terrorism in the Western Hemisphere. As of November 20, following the continued deployment on vessels and aircraft to the region, at least “a dozen warships and around 12,000 sailors and Marines” are operating in the region, including at bases in Puerto Rico (Military.com).
Radar: Recent OSINT confirms a Marine Corps TPS-80 G/ATOR radar is deployed and operational at ANR Robinson International Airport in Trinidad and Tobago (X). The radar is likely deployed with Marine Air Control Squadron-2 (MACS-2) and facilitates air surveillance, fires deconfliction, and command and control.
Trump-Maduro Talks: On November 30, it was reported that Presidents Trump and Maduro spoke over the phone. President Trump reportedly urged Maduro to resign and flee South America (New York Post).
Why This Matters
Trump’s unilateral attempt to “close” Venezuelan airspace challenges long-standing norms of state sovereignty and, if enforced militarily, could amount to a de facto no-fly zone before intervention.
The continued strikes, deployments, and exercises suggest that the U.S. may soon conduct strikes inside Venezuela, a broad expansion of its operations there. Depending on how Venezuela responds, the U.S. could escalate with conventional force, and begin ship-to-shore movements followed by ground operations.
The Maduro regime appears to be at the end of its rope, and Washington feels like it is at a decision point.
End Brief
That concludes this brief.
Thank you for reading!
— Nick
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This publication is an Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) product and does not contain Controlled Unclassified Information (CUI) or Classified Information.